4 ms·

> safe and effective Do you have any long studies you can point to? Let’s go very short. 5 years or more? The “The Science” crowd is so perplexing. You can’t

> safe and effective Do you have any long studies you can point to? Let’s go very short. 5 years or more? The “The Science” crowd is so perplexing. You can’t believe in the upside in just faith. That’s exactly what you’re pretending not to do.

Matticus_Rex 2y ago
"Do you have 5 years or more of evidence about this thing that has existed for less than that time?" Obviously this is not a good faith question. And yes, we may find out that the vaccines are, over a long period of time, not perfectly safe. But we do have enough data to know they aren't super risky (at least for the vast majority), because big effects would be easy to see, and we do know that COVID is very risky. Classic economic thinking question: "compared to what?"
- ifyoubuildit 2y ago
  Do you need big negative effects to outweigh the pros of another booster? If you take an under 40 healthy person who already had covid, the vaccine did basically nothing for them after a few months. It doesnt take a "big effect" to counter that, right?
  - Matticus_Rex 2y ago
    Depends on a bunch of factors, e.g. which booster, which variant, the person, and the relationship between dependent and independent variables in different risks from both COVID and the vaccine, but for the peak of the pandemic, the answer is no -- the risk of catching COVID was so large and our treatment wasn't honed in that you'd have to assume a pretty high rate of serious unknown long-term issues for it to come out net negative in most cases. Once we got past the peak and with particular variants where the boosters were less effective, that changed (and that was also when you found out that some people's belief in the vaccine was ultimately religious in nature). There weren't a lot of people trying to model that risk, but of the ones who were the vaccine looked pretty compelling as a better bet for the whole of the peak pandemic. And maybe it turns out that 15 years out from the vaccine everyone suddenly dies! But the expected value there is highly unlikely.
    - ifyoubuildit 2y ago
      So I guess the question is with everything we know today, when and for whom was it a net benefit to go out and get the shot? E.g. it almost certainly wasn't for kids at any point. For people who'd already had it and recovered, it probably wasn't. For folks over 65 with comorbidities and no previous exposure, it was probably a solid win to get it. Would it be a good idea for everyone to go out and get one today?
ipv6ipv4 2y ago
Sure. mRNA vaccines didn't emerge spontaneously during covid. They were studied for many years before, which is why they were so readily available for covid. Just because you never heard of their existence prior to covid doesn't mean they weren't the subject of intense study. The first mRNA vaccines were tested on mice in the 1990s, and on humans in 2013. I'm still waiting to become magnetic! That and I want to shed spike proteins like a Pokemon.
- SV_BubbleTime 2y ago
  Ah right. Moderna was on the verge of bankruptcy because not one in the company’s history did one of their or any other mRNA trial make it past trials. Not a single one to pass phase 3 trials, before COVID. Go ahead. Fact check me.
harrall 2y ago
James 2:17 “So also faith by itself, if it does not have works, is dead.” People are not doing science in lieu of faith. They are putting action to their beliefs and trying to improve the shared human condition. Water wells do not build themselves.

Matticus_Rex 2y ago

"Do you have 5 years or more of evidence about this thing that has existed for less than that time?" Obviously this is not a good faith question. And yes, we may find out that the vaccines are, over a long period of time, not perfectly safe. But we do have enough data to know they aren't super risky (at least for the vast majority), because big effects would be easy to see, and we do know that COVID is very risky. Classic economic thinking question: "compared to what?"

ifyoubuildit 2y ago
Do you need big negative effects to outweigh the pros of another booster? If you take an under 40 healthy person who already had covid, the vaccine did basically nothing for them after a few months. It doesnt take a "big effect" to counter that, right?
- Matticus_Rex 2y ago
  Depends on a bunch of factors, e.g. which booster, which variant, the person, and the relationship between dependent and independent variables in different risks from both COVID and the vaccine, but for the peak of the pandemic, the answer is no -- the risk of catching COVID was so large and our treatment wasn't honed in that you'd have to assume a pretty high rate of serious unknown long-term issues for it to come out net negative in most cases. Once we got past the peak and with particular variants where the boosters were less effective, that changed (and that was also when you found out that some people's belief in the vaccine was ultimately religious in nature). There weren't a lot of people trying to model that risk, but of the ones who were the vaccine looked pretty compelling as a better bet for the whole of the peak pandemic. And maybe it turns out that 15 years out from the vaccine everyone suddenly dies! But the expected value there is highly unlikely.
  - ifyoubuildit 2y ago
    So I guess the question is with everything we know today, when and for whom was it a net benefit to go out and get the shot? E.g. it almost certainly wasn't for kids at any point. For people who'd already had it and recovered, it probably wasn't. For folks over 65 with comorbidities and no previous exposure, it was probably a solid win to get it. Would it be a good idea for everyone to go out and get one today?

ipv6ipv4 2y ago

Sure. mRNA vaccines didn't emerge spontaneously during covid. They were studied for many years before, which is why they were so readily available for covid. Just because you never heard of their existence prior to covid doesn't mean they weren't the subject of intense study. The first mRNA vaccines were tested on mice in the 1990s, and on humans in 2013. I'm still waiting to become magnetic! That and I want to shed spike proteins like a Pokemon.

SV_BubbleTime 2y ago
Ah right. Moderna was on the verge of bankruptcy because not one in the company’s history did one of their or any other mRNA trial make it past trials. Not a single one to pass phase 3 trials, before COVID. Go ahead. Fact check me.

harrall 2y ago

James 2:17 “So also faith by itself, if it does not have works, is dead.” People are not doing science in lieu of faith. They are putting action to their beliefs and trying to improve the shared human condition. Water wells do not build themselves.