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Doesn't really seem like a Paradox. There may only be 10 people willing to pay $100 for something, but 1000 willing to pay $10 for it, so lower price results i
by HarHarVeryFunny 2y ago
Doesn't really seem like a Paradox.
There may only be 10 people willing to pay $100 for something, but 1000 willing to pay $10 for it, so lower price results in more revenue.
- aurareturn 2y agoThat’s a given. Another counter argument is that’s Nvidia will sell less high margin advanced GPUs that require expensive networking equipment. Problem with that argument is that every competitor gets the benefit of higher efficiency and the baseline will reset back to 0.
- HarHarVeryFunny 2y agoThe models will all get more efficient, but NVIDIA as the high cost provider of compute (as well as cloud services that use them) - 10x markup on H100s - may not benefit from increased demand. If the models turn out to be a commodity, then low cost providers will be the winners, likely running on chips like TPU and Trainium (Amazon/Anthropic) that don't have the 10x markup.
- aurareturn 2y agoLow cost providers will not be the winner because those will become commodity. It’s the leading model, the one closest to AGI that will make all the profit. Nvidia has products to serve lower end as well. There’s no reason why Nvidia can’t dominate in the commodity sector. And if Nvidia can’t keep their high margins, they will make it up with significantly more volume (Jevons Paradox in play).
- HarHarVeryFunny 2y agoI think there'll continue to be models at different levels of capability and price - and not at all obvious whether it'll be the Ford or Rolls Royce that'll make most money. My guess is that is that what passes as "AGI" will also become commoditized, maybe even free to consumers (funded by advertising, business referrals to restaurants, etc).