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The chart correlates well, with similar references from the US and similar related markets (see [1], [2], [3] and [4] ). At a more macro level, for the United
by belter 2y ago
The chart correlates well, with similar references from the US and similar related markets (see [1], [2], [3] and [4] ).
At a more macro level, for the United States, I looked at U.S. unemployment data, for the last 80 years. Starting from 1945 until today Jan 2025. All jobs, not only Technology. What jumped out immediately is a clear cyclical pattern: Unemployment peaks occur, on average, every 7–8 years, with some variability.
- Shorter Gaps (3–5 years) showed up in the 1950s and early
1960s, often tied to small recessions.
- Longer Gaps (10–11 years) happened before the early 1990s
recession, again around the early 2000s, and more recently
between 2009–2010 and 2020.
- Outliers include the early 1980s (double-dip recession
pushing unemployment above 10%) and, the 2020’s pandemic
spike, which briefly soared past 14%.
Overall, the business cycle hasn’t radically changed over 80 years: Expansions that push unemployment down to historic lows, followed by recessions that create sharp spikes in unemployment.
Assuming 7–8 years is a decent rule of thumb, and based on US history of the last 80 years, we are in for a next continued peak into growing unemployment, until at least 2027–2028.
At a smaller scale, local trends in geopolitics, tariffs, AI adoption, and political dysfunction reflect (or confirm) the broader macro trend.
Plan accordingly...And hope I am wrong...
[1] Software Development Job Postings on Indeed in the United States: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE
[2] Software Development Job Postings on Indeed in Canada:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXCATPSOFTDEVE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXCATPSOFTDEVE
[3] Software Development Job Postings on Indeed in Germany:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXDETPSOFTDEVE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXDETPSOFTDEVE
[4] Software Development Job Postings on Indeed in the United Kingdom:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXGBTPSOFTDEVE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXGBTPSOFTDEVE