5 ms·

I think the chance is about 10%. That's too high of a chance, IMHO.

spencerflem 2y ago
Genuinely, who are you expecting to stand up against it? The Democrats in Congress? Massive public demonstration? It feels all but inevitable to me
- hedora 2y ago
  The Calexit people are gathering signatures right now: https://www.sos.ca.gov/administration/news-releases-and-advisories/2025-news-releases-and-advisories/Proposed-Initiative-Enters-Circulation-Requires-Future-Vote-on-Whether-California-Should-Become-Independent-Country https://www.sos.ca.gov/administration/news-releases-and-advi...
  - spencerflem 2y ago
    I'm in WA, could you extend it to all of Cascadia? ;) Last time a state tried to leave there were words though. I doubt this will go smoothly
    - jslaby 2y ago
      WA was the only state to decrease in Trump vote margin
      - spencerflem 2y ago
        Happy to be of service
  - roland35 2y ago
    I would not be surprised if this is some Russian psy op honestly. Please stay!
  - CalRobert 2y ago
    Edit: The current movement appears unrelated to Yes California - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/california-secession-donald-trump-calexit-marcus-ruiz-evans-b2686440.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic... """ “People think if you’re a secessionist, you’re crazy,” Ruiz Evans said on Saturday. “I hate Donald Trump,” he added. “I am full-blooded Mexican. The day he went on TV and said all Mexicans are rapists, I said, ‘He can go f** himself.’ “ He added: “When I see Trump pick on women, on LGBTQ people … my family left Texas for California to escape that. And when I look at Trump, it reminds me of all the horror stories my mom and my grandma told me from [the time] before they left.” """ Sign me up. (original below) I am absolutely in favor of an independent California, but in the past at least the backing for this has had ties to Putin (which makes sense, I suppose, it would cripple the US) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yes_California https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yes_California
  - sershe 2y ago
    According to Brennan center, CA is number one at losing people relative to other states. If it hypothetically exits to prevent other states from making it more like them and less like itself, that would presumably accelerate. Did you budget for a DMZ or a Berlin wall to keep newly minted California citizens in? Especially those that pay all the taxes, like e.g. myself (I bailed in 2015) https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/how-congressional-maps-could-change-2030 https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/how-...
- dillondoyle 2y ago
  I doubt public demonstrations would do it. They'd have to start losing MAGA cult people for them to change course themselves. But if we can hold out for 2 years (big if) there's a very strong chance we'll retake the house. And if things continue down this path (i think it will get worse) we could maybe take back the senate. but the map is very hard. That would give power to fight back. If we get a once in a generation swing of seats we could think about getting rid of the filibuster / few remaining norms. Then we could rebalance judicial. But that's a big risk if not sure the power will endure beyond a handful of cycles.
  - spencerflem 2y ago
    i dont think demonstrations would work either fwiw. a big swing requires the dems to seem credibly like a real opposition, for people to want an opposition, and for that election result to be untampered. given how little they've done to stop this so far and how little they're promising to do now, and how shaky the foundations for the elections are in the first place .. idk, it seems unlikely
  - alienthrowaway 2y ago
    > I doubt public demonstrations would do it. Trump is itching to trigger provisions of the Insurrection Act as far ahead of the mid-term elections as possible. Public demonstrations by anyone associated with the left will achieve nothing right now given the composition of Congress. The best bet is to stand down, and stand by. The ground will probably be fertile for local organizing though.
  - andy_ppp 2y ago
    Trump will send the military in this time and kill protesters. Like he wanted to before.
- laidoffamazon 2y ago
  Congress and anybody in his administration that decides to grow a spine without being booted before they do. Barring that, the American people in 2 years, assuming a politicized FBI run by Kash Patel doesn't intervene in particular elections.

Genuinely, who are you expecting to stand up against it? The Democrats in Congress? Massive public demonstration? It feels all but inevitable to me

hedora 2y ago
The Calexit people are gathering signatures right now: https://www.sos.ca.gov/administration/news-releases-and-advisories/2025-news-releases-and-advisories/Proposed-Initiative-Enters-Circulation-Requires-Future-Vote-on-Whether-California-Should-Become-Independent-Country https://www.sos.ca.gov/administration/news-releases-and-advi...
- spencerflem 2y ago
  I'm in WA, could you extend it to all of Cascadia? ;) Last time a state tried to leave there were words though. I doubt this will go smoothly
  - jslaby 2y ago
    WA was the only state to decrease in Trump vote margin
    - spencerflem 2y ago
      Happy to be of service
- roland35 2y ago
  I would not be surprised if this is some Russian psy op honestly. Please stay!
- CalRobert 2y ago
  Edit: The current movement appears unrelated to Yes California - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/california-secession-donald-trump-calexit-marcus-ruiz-evans-b2686440.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic... """ “People think if you’re a secessionist, you’re crazy,” Ruiz Evans said on Saturday. “I hate Donald Trump,” he added. “I am full-blooded Mexican. The day he went on TV and said all Mexicans are rapists, I said, ‘He can go f** himself.’ “ He added: “When I see Trump pick on women, on LGBTQ people … my family left Texas for California to escape that. And when I look at Trump, it reminds me of all the horror stories my mom and my grandma told me from [the time] before they left.” """ Sign me up. (original below) I am absolutely in favor of an independent California, but in the past at least the backing for this has had ties to Putin (which makes sense, I suppose, it would cripple the US) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yes_California https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yes_California
- sershe 2y ago
  According to Brennan center, CA is number one at losing people relative to other states. If it hypothetically exits to prevent other states from making it more like them and less like itself, that would presumably accelerate. Did you budget for a DMZ or a Berlin wall to keep newly minted California citizens in? Especially those that pay all the taxes, like e.g. myself (I bailed in 2015) https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/how-congressional-maps-could-change-2030 https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/how-...
dillondoyle 2y ago
I doubt public demonstrations would do it. They'd have to start losing MAGA cult people for them to change course themselves. But if we can hold out for 2 years (big if) there's a very strong chance we'll retake the house. And if things continue down this path (i think it will get worse) we could maybe take back the senate. but the map is very hard. That would give power to fight back. If we get a once in a generation swing of seats we could think about getting rid of the filibuster / few remaining norms. Then we could rebalance judicial. But that's a big risk if not sure the power will endure beyond a handful of cycles.
- spencerflem 2y ago
  i dont think demonstrations would work either fwiw. a big swing requires the dems to seem credibly like a real opposition, for people to want an opposition, and for that election result to be untampered. given how little they've done to stop this so far and how little they're promising to do now, and how shaky the foundations for the elections are in the first place .. idk, it seems unlikely
- alienthrowaway 2y ago
  > I doubt public demonstrations would do it. Trump is itching to trigger provisions of the Insurrection Act as far ahead of the mid-term elections as possible. Public demonstrations by anyone associated with the left will achieve nothing right now given the composition of Congress. The best bet is to stand down, and stand by. The ground will probably be fertile for local organizing though.
- andy_ppp 2y ago
  Trump will send the military in this time and kill protesters. Like he wanted to before.
laidoffamazon 2y ago
Congress and anybody in his administration that decides to grow a spine without being booted before they do. Barring that, the American people in 2 years, assuming a politicized FBI run by Kash Patel doesn't intervene in particular elections.