> There's lots of factual information here you can know and use to make informed "guesses" (if you will). The gambler who learned the entire observable history

> There's lots of factual information here you can know and use to make informed "guesses" (if you will). The gambler who learned the entire observable history of a tumbling RNG will not be in a better position to take the jackpot than the gambler who models it as a simple distribution. You cannot become an expert on certain things. Geopolitics may or may not be one of these things, but you've made no substantial argument either way.