4 ms·

> So, AGI will likely be here in the next few months because the path is now actually clear: Training will be in three phases My bet: "AGI" won't be here in mo

> So, AGI will likely be here in the next few months because the path is now actually clear: Training will be in three phases My bet: "AGI" won't be here in months or even years, but it won't stop prognosticators from claiming it's right around the corner. Very similar to prophets of doom claiming the world is going to end any day now. Even in 10k years, the claim can never be falsified, it's always just around the corner...

jmward01 2y ago
Maybe, but I know what my laser focus will be on for the next few weeks. I suspect a massive number of researchers around the world have just switched their focus in a similar way. The resources applied to this problem have been going up exponentially and the recent RL techniques have now opened the floodgates for anyone with a 4090 (or even smaller!) to try crazy things. In a world where the resources are constant I would agree with your basic assertion that 'it is right around the corner' will stay that way, but in a world where resources are doubling this fast there is no doubt we are about to achieve it.
- root_axis 2y ago
  Your reasoning still assumes that "AGI" can emerge from quadratic time brute force on some text and images scraped off the internet. Personally, I'm skeptical of that premise.
  - danielbln 2y ago
    That's like saying sentience cannot emerge from a few amino acids tumbled together, yet here we are. There is a lot of higher dimensional information encoded in those "text and images scraped off the internet". I still don't think that's enough for AGI (or ASI) but we know a lot of very complex things that are made of simple parts.
    - root_axis 2y ago
      > That's like saying sentience cannot emerge from a few amino acids No, it's not at all the same thing. We have great evidence that life exists. We have great evidence that amino acids can lead to life. None of that is true of "AGI" or text scraped off the internet.
      - freilanzer 2y ago
        OTOH, text and images have only been around for a little while. The real question is whether text and images can contain enough information for AGI, or a physical world to interact with is needed.

jmward01 2y ago

Maybe, but I know what my laser focus will be on for the next few weeks. I suspect a massive number of researchers around the world have just switched their focus in a similar way. The resources applied to this problem have been going up exponentially and the recent RL techniques have now opened the floodgates for anyone with a 4090 (or even smaller!) to try crazy things. In a world where the resources are constant I would agree with your basic assertion that 'it is right around the corner' will stay that way, but in a world where resources are doubling this fast there is no doubt we are about to achieve it.

root_axis 2y ago
Your reasoning still assumes that "AGI" can emerge from quadratic time brute force on some text and images scraped off the internet. Personally, I'm skeptical of that premise.
- danielbln 2y ago
  That's like saying sentience cannot emerge from a few amino acids tumbled together, yet here we are. There is a lot of higher dimensional information encoded in those "text and images scraped off the internet". I still don't think that's enough for AGI (or ASI) but we know a lot of very complex things that are made of simple parts.
  - root_axis 2y ago
    > That's like saying sentience cannot emerge from a few amino acids No, it's not at all the same thing. We have great evidence that life exists. We have great evidence that amino acids can lead to life. None of that is true of "AGI" or text scraped off the internet.
    - freilanzer 2y ago
      OTOH, text and images have only been around for a little while. The real question is whether text and images can contain enough information for AGI, or a physical world to interact with is needed.