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The stock market is overvalued historically, but Deepseek's pause of new user registrations seems to validate the bull case for Nvidia. https://techcrunch.com/

The stock market is overvalued historically, but Deepseek's pause of new user registrations seems to validate the bull case for Nvidia. https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/27/ai-startup-deepseek-pauses-signups-amid-cyber-incident/ https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/27/ai-startup-deepseek-pauses... I don't believe it was a cyber attack; I think it's just usage overload. If I'm right, the next steps will be for them to throttle usage by price increase or some other method. Or they will have to find another order of magnitude of efficiency, and then that will be gobbled up and maxed out days after they introduce it. The theme here is the demand for AI is nearly limitless and the supply (for now) is constrained by Nvidia.

Ekaros 2y ago
Or it is usual cycle of demand spiking when something is new and/or on news and then normalizing later. Usually if you over invest in capacity at these times you won't be using it long term. Often seen with games and servers there...
- djyaz1200 2y ago
  Sure, that may be true and is a good analogy, but what I find interesting here is that they have restrictions on increasing their capacity. So if this increased demand endures, what then?
woah 2y ago
Or move the whole outfit to the US and get access to plentiful chips and electricity... unfortunately I think the CCP might have something to say about that
- nemomarx 2y ago
  plentiful tariffed chips? I feel like the US supply is going to get harder soon if the Taiwan tariffs are real.
ziddoap 2y ago
>I don't believe it was a cyber attack; I think it's just usage overload. Can you explain what information you're basing this on? Is there a particular reason not to believe them? Typically, from a public relations standpoint, you'd be better off saying "we're super popular and haven't scaled enough yet" over "we got hacked". But I don't really know much about DeepSeek. Do they have a pattern of lying?
- touristtam 2y ago
  Let's put it that way; It's been days since its been in the public eyes and everyone is talking about it like it is the new ChatGPT. When your non techies friends and family members are coming to you with question about it, you know the reach is wide already. All those people have been primed by months of using ChatGPT or similar /ai/. So it does come as a plausible explanation.
  - ziddoap 2y ago
    Why is it more plausible than the explanation provided by the company? That's what I'm asking. Especially when you consider the PR downsides of saying your company has been hacked. Maybe there's a history of the company lying, or some other evidence that it's not an attack that I haven't seen, etc.
- alecco 2y ago
  Not OP, but it's been topping app downloads everywhere. A lot of non-tech people are trying it. Note they offer a free reasoning model while OpenAI charges $200. And the reasoning is a lot more transparent. My opinion is probably both an attack and an unmanageable surge right on Spring Festival (Chinese NY). It's been red all day: https://status.deepseek.com/ https://status.deepseek.com/ But I had no issues today with web. Yesterday night it was spotty.
MrSkelter 2y ago
Most people have little use for LLMs. The spike is curiosity plus the system being slammed by corporations and governments doing intelligence. Open AIs impact on their servers could easily overwhelm them. They will recover and I am sure this is more than user interest. Look at how much is being claimed by competitors already. They are absolutely hammering them right now.

Ekaros 2y ago

Or it is usual cycle of demand spiking when something is new and/or on news and then normalizing later. Usually if you over invest in capacity at these times you won't be using it long term. Often seen with games and servers there...

djyaz1200 2y ago
Sure, that may be true and is a good analogy, but what I find interesting here is that they have restrictions on increasing their capacity. So if this increased demand endures, what then?

woah 2y ago

Or move the whole outfit to the US and get access to plentiful chips and electricity... unfortunately I think the CCP might have something to say about that

nemomarx 2y ago
plentiful tariffed chips? I feel like the US supply is going to get harder soon if the Taiwan tariffs are real.

ziddoap 2y ago

>I don't believe it was a cyber attack; I think it's just usage overload. Can you explain what information you're basing this on? Is there a particular reason not to believe them? Typically, from a public relations standpoint, you'd be better off saying "we're super popular and haven't scaled enough yet" over "we got hacked". But I don't really know much about DeepSeek. Do they have a pattern of lying?

touristtam 2y ago
Let's put it that way; It's been days since its been in the public eyes and everyone is talking about it like it is the new ChatGPT. When your non techies friends and family members are coming to you with question about it, you know the reach is wide already. All those people have been primed by months of using ChatGPT or similar /ai/. So it does come as a plausible explanation.
- ziddoap 2y ago
  Why is it more plausible than the explanation provided by the company? That's what I'm asking. Especially when you consider the PR downsides of saying your company has been hacked. Maybe there's a history of the company lying, or some other evidence that it's not an attack that I haven't seen, etc.
alecco 2y ago
Not OP, but it's been topping app downloads everywhere. A lot of non-tech people are trying it. Note they offer a free reasoning model while OpenAI charges $200. And the reasoning is a lot more transparent. My opinion is probably both an attack and an unmanageable surge right on Spring Festival (Chinese NY). It's been red all day: https://status.deepseek.com/ https://status.deepseek.com/ But I had no issues today with web. Yesterday night it was spotty.

MrSkelter 2y ago

Most people have little use for LLMs. The spike is curiosity plus the system being slammed by corporations and governments doing intelligence. Open AIs impact on their servers could easily overwhelm them. They will recover and I am sure this is more than user interest. Look at how much is being claimed by competitors already. They are absolutely hammering them right now.