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We can always rely on Taleb, when an unexpected thing happens, to point out that unexpected things can happen and will happen again. It’s a neat little PR head

We can always rely on Taleb, when an unexpected thing happens, to point out that unexpected things can happen and will happen again. It’s a neat little PR headspace he’s gotten himself into. Basically any time a reporter is surprised they can call him and get a quote along the lines of “people should not be surprised when they are occasionally surprised, and they should anticipate being surprised some more in the future.” Really helps fill out the word count for the day.

mrweasel 2y ago
In the article he does mention that this is more like a "gray swans" situation. I take that to mean that he is in agreement with many that this wasn't entirely unpredictable. It may not have been obvious to a certain type of investor, but many here on HN have said that Nvidia is overvalued. Also given the speed of which many others have court up to OpenAI, it wasn't unreasonable to expect someone to overtake them or find an alternative path.
- LiquidSky 2y ago
  It's not even a "gray swan" event, it was entirely predictable. Google was internally explicitly predicting this a year and a half ago* and they can't have been the only ones. *"Google 'We Have No Moat, And Neither Does OpenAI'" - https://semianalysis.com/2023/05/04/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither/ https://semianalysis.com/2023/05/04/google-we-have-no-moat-a...
  - mrweasel 2y ago
    > Taleb said too many investors have been bidding up prices of firms related to AI without properly knowing the details of how it functions or is able to succeed. This may just be Taleb retrofitting terms to give him talking time. So while yes, it was entirely predictable, if you actually research what you're buying into and understand it... which most don't.
- jetrink 2y ago
  And they didn't just say that NVidia was overvalued, but that it was overvalued for precisely this reason. I've also read people here and elsewhere warn that export controls could quickly become ineffective as Chinese researchers find clever ways to train models with lower-end hardware. I think if there had been a prediction market, this outcome would have been given a better than 50% probability here, though maybe the speed it happened has surprised people.
jncfhnb 2y ago
Don’t forget the chance for him to shit on domain experts for having models that fail to account for everything as if that’s supposed to be a gotcha
bugglebeetle 2y ago
> “people should not be surprised when they are occasionally surprised, and they should anticipate being surprised some more in the future.” It’s mildly hilarious that you’re deriding Taleb for thinking (and investing) at a level that all of bubble-chasing investment houses are incapable of achieving. He’s made so much money precisely because this thing you’re describing as so stupidly obvious, is actually, not, stupidly obvious to people.

mrweasel 2y ago

In the article he does mention that this is more like a "gray swans" situation. I take that to mean that he is in agreement with many that this wasn't entirely unpredictable. It may not have been obvious to a certain type of investor, but many here on HN have said that Nvidia is overvalued. Also given the speed of which many others have court up to OpenAI, it wasn't unreasonable to expect someone to overtake them or find an alternative path.

LiquidSky 2y ago
It's not even a "gray swan" event, it was entirely predictable. Google was internally explicitly predicting this a year and a half ago* and they can't have been the only ones. *"Google 'We Have No Moat, And Neither Does OpenAI'" - https://semianalysis.com/2023/05/04/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither/ https://semianalysis.com/2023/05/04/google-we-have-no-moat-a...
- mrweasel 2y ago
  > Taleb said too many investors have been bidding up prices of firms related to AI without properly knowing the details of how it functions or is able to succeed. This may just be Taleb retrofitting terms to give him talking time. So while yes, it was entirely predictable, if you actually research what you're buying into and understand it... which most don't.
jetrink 2y ago
And they didn't just say that NVidia was overvalued, but that it was overvalued for precisely this reason. I've also read people here and elsewhere warn that export controls could quickly become ineffective as Chinese researchers find clever ways to train models with lower-end hardware. I think if there had been a prediction market, this outcome would have been given a better than 50% probability here, though maybe the speed it happened has surprised people.

jncfhnb 2y ago

Don’t forget the chance for him to shit on domain experts for having models that fail to account for everything as if that’s supposed to be a gotcha

bugglebeetle 2y ago

> “people should not be surprised when they are occasionally surprised, and they should anticipate being surprised some more in the future.” It’s mildly hilarious that you’re deriding Taleb for thinking (and investing) at a level that all of bubble-chasing investment houses are incapable of achieving. He’s made so much money precisely because this thing you’re describing as so stupidly obvious, is actually, not, stupidly obvious to people.