Geopolitics is a complex system. Having lots of factual and historical information to inform your decision is not obviously an advantage over a guess based on a

Geopolitics is a complex system. Having lots of factual and historical information to inform your decision is not obviously an advantage over a guess based on a cursory read of the situation. It is like economists - they have 0 predictive power vs. some random bit player with a taste for stats when operating at the level of a country's economy. They're doing well if they can even explain what actually happened. They tend to get the details right but the big picture is an entirely different kettle of fish. Geopolitics is much harder to work with than economics, because it covers economics plus distance and cultural barriers even before the problem of leaders doing damn silly things for silly reasons. And unlike economics there is barely the most tenuous of anchors to check if the geopolitical "experts" get things right even with hindsight. I'd bet the people who sent the US into Afghanistan and Iraq are still patting themselves on the back for a job well done despite what I think most people could accept as the total failure of those particular expeditions.