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I agree, but the existing moat that Nvidia has due to CUDA and the entire HPC ecosystem still holds. And this is why it's relevant to treat Nvidia as the majori

• InkCanon 2y ago
  You're on the dot here. Most people are looking at it wrong. Someone here once put it succinctly - Nvidia isn't selling GPUs, it's selling Infiniband clusters. The whole NVLink/CUDA ecosystem is the key, and a mass of separate players (Cerebras, Google TPUs for inference, Mojo for CUDA, AMD/Intel/Huawei etc for GPUs, etc) are very unlikely to break that. In fact NVLink is so powerful, based on the DeepSeek paper it appears to be nerfed (classic Nvidia market segmentation strategy), and a big part of squeezing their compute was hacking around that. That said, the reason I don't invest Nvidia is that they're selling one more thing - AI legitimacy. Every tech shop is buying Nvidia because all their CEOs need to go to the board and say, we've got so and so AI strategy. Sure as hell Meta isn't spending 50 billion a year because AI makes them so much damn money (supposedly ML saved their ass when Apple put on App Tracking Transparency, but 99% suds it's not the ML that needs a gigawatt GPU cluster to run). And the very real calculus for investors/CEOs is that if DeepSeek made this on a thousandth of the budget (conflicting reports but high probably DS has a fraction of the compute), whYs stopping Zuckerberg from taking 10B of that capex spend and offering every name on that DeepSeek paper a 10 million salary?