While I agree with your points, I think a larger factor is that NVidia's valuation has been driven higher by the seemingly insatiable demand for data center AI

While I agree with your points, I think a larger factor is that NVidia's valuation has been driven higher by the seemingly insatiable demand for data center AI GPUs from large companies investing far in advance (and excess) of near-term revenue. In recent months signs have emerged that leading edge models like O3 require significantly higher GPU cycles for each additional increment of quality. This would tend to push GPU demand growth rates even higher. * DeepSeek appears to be credible evidence there may be clever optimizations to achieve higher model quality with less GPU cycles than previously thought. Basically, if you're making scarce oil derricks in a gasoline shortage and your stock price has been bid way up on the expectation of insatiable future gas demand, a more gas-efficient engine design is going to be adverse to your valuation. Especially if it's free and easy to implement. * DeepSeek's weights are open source under a permissive license. Much of OpenAI (and similar company's) current revenue is from AI startups and other companies buying usage hours of proprietary leading edge models (eg O3) as cloud services through an API and reselling the output in their own applications targeting various verticals. If some of those companies start using a free open source model like DeepSeek (or it's future descendants/competitors) for some of their offerings - that'll reduce the income and war chest of some of today's biggest GPU buyers. Lower current revenue lowers valuations meaning the equity OpenAI et al use to buy GPUs will be devalued.