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What you are missing is that it turns out the gold isn’t actually gold. It’s bronze. So earliest, the shovelers were willing to spend thousands of dollars for
by addicted 2y ago
What you are missing is that it turns out the gold isn’t actually gold. It’s bronze.
So earliest, the shovelers were willing to spend thousands of dollars for a single shovel because they were expecting to get much more valuable gold out the other end.
But now that it’s only bronze, they can’t spend that much money on their tools anymore to make their venture profitable. A lot of shovelers are gonna drop out of the race. And the ones that remain will not be willing to spend as much.
The fact that there isn’t that much money to be made in AI anymore means that whatever percentage of money would have gone to NVIDIA from the total money to be made in AI will now shrink dramatically.
- deeviant 2y agoWait, so AI might become 25x cheaper to train and run, and your thesis is... no one will make money on AI now?!?!
- h0l0cube 2y agoPerhaps they mean there's less wealth to be extracted from the closed-source training side of the equation, which requires huge capital investment, and promises even bigger returns by gatekeeping the technology.
- Tostino 2y agoLet's shed a tear for the investor class who had their wealth extraction dreams dashed a bit today. Anyways, where were we...
- hattmall 2y agoSort of, it means there's less of a chance for massive market domination and a monopoly.
- Ekaros 2y agoMany discussed aspects are disconnected. Cost of training, cost of hardware(and margin there), cost of operation, possible use cases, and then finally demand. Cheaper training still expect there is some use case for those trained models. There might or might not be. It can very well be that cost of training did not really limit the number of usable models.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> it turns out the gold isn’t actually gold. It’s bronze. The gold is still gold. We just thought it was 10,000 feet down, which requires lots of shovels, when it was actually just under the surface.
- whattheheckheck 2y agoStill don't know if it's even gold
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- wisty 2y agoTo continue the analogy, now everyone with a dream and a credit card can buy a shovel and have a shot.