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Nah, this is not about Nvidia being a bubble. This is about people forgetting that software will keep eating the world and Nvidia is a hardware company no mat

Nah, this is not about Nvidia being a bubble. This is about people forgetting that software will keep eating the world and Nvidia is a hardware company no matter how many times people say it's a software company and talk about Cuda. Yes, CUDA is their moat, but they are not a software company. See my post on reddit from 10 months ago about this happening. https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/1c0je6h/comment/kyx335r/ https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/1c0je6h/comment... "The biggest threat to NVIDIA is not AMD, Intel or Google's TPU. It's software. Sofware eats the world!" "That's what software is going to do. A new architecture/algorithm that allows us current performance with 50% of the hardware, would change everything. What would that mean? If Nvidia had it in the books to sell N hardware, all of a sudden the demand won't exist since N compute can be realized with the new software and existing hardware. Hardware that might not have been attractive like AMD, Intel or even older hardware would become attractive. They would have to cut their price so much, the violent exodus from their stocks will be shocking. Lots of people are going to get rich via Nvidia, lots are going to get poor after the fact. It's not going to be because of hardware, but software." A lot of people are saying that I'm wrong on other hardware like AMD or Intel, but this article by Stratechery agrees, all other hardware vendors are possibly relevant again. I didn't talk about Apple because I was focused on the server side, Apple has already won the consumer side and is so far ahead and waiting for the tech to catch up to it. The biggest threat to Nvidia is still more software optimization.

Jlagreen 2y ago
For 2 decades we were told how Apple will have to cut their margins due to competition and so on. Today, it's simple. Apple has 25% unit share in smartphone markets and 75% profit share. Apple makes 3x the profit of ALL OTHER smartphone vendors combined. And this is exactly where Nvidia's goal is. The AI compute market will grow, Nvidia will lose unit market share but Nvidia will retain their profit market share. Simple as that. And by the way, Nvidia is way ahead in SW compared to alternatives. Most here have the DIY glasses on. But enterprises and businesses have different lenses. For those not being Tech they need secure and working solution with enterprise grades. Nvidia is among the few to offer this with Enterprise AI solutions (NeMo, NIMs, etc.). Nvidia's SW moat isn't CUDA, CUDA is an API for performance and stability. Nvidia's SW moat is in the frameworks for applications for many differnt industries and of course ALL Nvidia SW will require Nvidia HW. A company using Nvidia enterprise SW solutions and consultancy will never use anything except Nvidia HW. Nvidia has a program with >10k AI startups being supported with free consulting and HW support. Nvidia is basically grooming their next generation customers by themselves. You have no idea, many think Nvidia is only selling some chips and that's where they are wrong. Nvidia is a brand, an ecosystem and they will continue to grow from there. See gaming, much more standards and commodity in SW than AI SW. There is no CUDA, you can swap a Nvidia card with AMD card within a minute. So let me know, how come for 2 decades that Nvidia has continously 80-95% market share?

Jlagreen 2y ago

For 2 decades we were told how Apple will have to cut their margins due to competition and so on. Today, it's simple. Apple has 25% unit share in smartphone markets and 75% profit share. Apple makes 3x the profit of ALL OTHER smartphone vendors combined. And this is exactly where Nvidia's goal is. The AI compute market will grow, Nvidia will lose unit market share but Nvidia will retain their profit market share. Simple as that. And by the way, Nvidia is way ahead in SW compared to alternatives. Most here have the DIY glasses on. But enterprises and businesses have different lenses. For those not being Tech they need secure and working solution with enterprise grades. Nvidia is among the few to offer this with Enterprise AI solutions (NeMo, NIMs, etc.). Nvidia's SW moat isn't CUDA, CUDA is an API for performance and stability. Nvidia's SW moat is in the frameworks for applications for many differnt industries and of course ALL Nvidia SW will require Nvidia HW. A company using Nvidia enterprise SW solutions and consultancy will never use anything except Nvidia HW. Nvidia has a program with >10k AI startups being supported with free consulting and HW support. Nvidia is basically grooming their next generation customers by themselves. You have no idea, many think Nvidia is only selling some chips and that's where they are wrong. Nvidia is a brand, an ecosystem and they will continue to grow from there. See gaming, much more standards and commodity in SW than AI SW. There is no CUDA, you can swap a Nvidia card with AMD card within a minute. So let me know, how come for 2 decades that Nvidia has continously 80-95% market share?