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This story could be applied to every tech breakthrough. We start where the breakthrough is moated by hardware, access to knowledge, and IP. Over time: - Compet

This story could be applied to every tech breakthrough. We start where the breakthrough is moated by hardware, access to knowledge, and IP. Over time: - Competition gets crucial features into cheaper hardware - Work-arounds for most IP are discovered - Knowledge finds a way out of the castle This leads to a "Cambrian explosion" of new devices and software that usually gives rise to some game-changing new ways to use the new technology. I'm not sure where we all thought this somehow wouldn't apply to AI. We've seen the pattern with almost every new technology you can think of. It's just how it works. Only the time it takes for patents to expire changes this... so long as everyone respects the patent.

eigenvalue 2y ago
Yes this is exactly right. All you need is the right incentives and enough capital and markets will find away to breech any moat that’s not enforced via regulations.
- indymike 2y ago
  They'll even solve the regulations part most of the time as well. See Uber.
_DeadFred_ 2y ago
It's still wild to me that toasters have always been $20 but extremely expensive lasers, digital chips, amps, motors, LCD screens worked their way down to $20 CD players.
- indymike 2y ago
  So... Electric toasters came to market in the 1920s, priced from $15, eventually getting as low as $5. Adjusting for inflation, that $15 toaster cost $236.70 in 2025 USD. Today's $15 toaster would be about 90¢ in 1920s dollars... so it follows the story.
  - _DeadFred_ 2y ago
    On average toasters have always been $20. Wasn't $5 an outlier during dotCom crash homegoods firesales? There are some outliers. I just think it's wild that some coils cost the same as a radioactive laser, ICs, amps, motors, etc. There's a certain minimum cost and the complexity doesn't matter.
    - indymike 2y ago
      Invention is expensive. Innovation is less expensive. Production is (usually) the cheap part. Once the invention and innovation is paid off, it's just production...

eigenvalue 2y ago

Yes this is exactly right. All you need is the right incentives and enough capital and markets will find away to breech any moat that’s not enforced via regulations.

indymike 2y ago
They'll even solve the regulations part most of the time as well. See Uber.

_DeadFred_ 2y ago

It's still wild to me that toasters have always been $20 but extremely expensive lasers, digital chips, amps, motors, LCD screens worked their way down to $20 CD players.

indymike 2y ago
So... Electric toasters came to market in the 1920s, priced from $15, eventually getting as low as $5. Adjusting for inflation, that $15 toaster cost $236.70 in 2025 USD. Today's $15 toaster would be about 90¢ in 1920s dollars... so it follows the story.
- _DeadFred_ 2y ago
  On average toasters have always been $20. Wasn't $5 an outlier during dotCom crash homegoods firesales? There are some outliers. I just think it's wild that some coils cost the same as a radioactive laser, ICs, amps, motors, etc. There's a certain minimum cost and the complexity doesn't matter.
  - indymike 2y ago
    Invention is expensive. Innovation is less expensive. Production is (usually) the cheap part. Once the invention and innovation is paid off, it's just production...