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China's Tibet Dam Project Has Its Neighbors Worried

6 points by howard941 2y ago

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
blackeyeblitzar 2y ago
It is obviously a serious problem for other countries in multiple ways. For one, China could use this dam to simply limit water supply to the countries downstream such as Bangladesh or India, which they’ll use as a threat to manage sanctions or UN votes or whatever. Second, all this infrastructure in Tibet is helping China complete the illegal annexation of Tibet that began around 75 years ago. Third, there are risks of reservoir induced earthquakes from giant dams, particularly in that region. India has stated strong objections to this dam for a long time, from what I read. It’s curious why China decided to go ahead with it now when they backed off on the project previously.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > curious why China decided to go ahead with it now when they backed off on the project previously India is probably the weakest it's been, strategically, vis-à-vis China since its founding. India has nukes. But China has a superpower arsenal, together with developing ASAT and thus ABM capabilities. China has ports in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, which means it is beginning to develop the capability to blockade India. (India's coastline is deceptively short--Cheseapeake Bay's is longer.) Given India's dependence on imported energy, that's like a two week to 90-day shutdown option on Indian industry held by China. (Caveat: China has not demonstrated blue-water naval capabilities.) Finally, a lot of India's weapons systems are Russian. Those have both been shown to be worthless against Western kit, which China may be able to rival, and would be compromised in a war between China and India given Moscow's growing subservience to Beijing.
  - blackeyeblitzar 2y ago
    What’s India’s strategy, if they have one? They’re not friends with the US either right? Officially America designates Pakistan as an ally as I recall. So what can they do? Simply strengthen economic and defense ties with the EU and US?
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > They’re not friends with the US either right? Wrong [1][2]. > They’re not friends with the US either right? Officially America designates Pakistan as an ally as I recall I don't believe America has signed any alliances with Pakistan since the 50s. By the time The Atlantic was running "The Ally From Hell" in 2011 [3], U.S.-Islamabad relations were already in the bin. (We potted Bin Laden earlier that year.) > strengthen economic and defense ties with the EU and US? EU is too far away and too weak. Better bets would be Japan and Australia, i.e. the Quad. (Maybe also Korea, for their shipyards.) I'd love to say America, as an American of Indian descent, but our foreign policy isn't reliable right now. Were I Delhi, I’d focus on keeping China bogged down with Russia and contained by Taiwan while I built my green-water naval capabilities and energy security (coal, hydro, solar and maybe nuclear if the Americans will build it). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadrilateral_Security_Dialogue https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadrilateral_Security_Dialogu... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-03/india-pivots-from-russia-to-us-for-cutting-edge-weapons https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-03/india-piv... [3] https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/12/the-ally-from-hell/308730/ https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/12/the-all...
      - blackeyeblitzar 2y ago
        Found the thing I was thinking of: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_non-NATO_ally#Pakistan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_non-NATO_ally#Pakistan

6 points by howard941 2y ago

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

It is obviously a serious problem for other countries in multiple ways. For one, China could use this dam to simply limit water supply to the countries downstream such as Bangladesh or India, which they’ll use as a threat to manage sanctions or UN votes or whatever. Second, all this infrastructure in Tibet is helping China complete the illegal annexation of Tibet that began around 75 years ago. Third, there are risks of reservoir induced earthquakes from giant dams, particularly in that region. India has stated strong objections to this dam for a long time, from what I read. It’s curious why China decided to go ahead with it now when they backed off on the project previously.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> curious why China decided to go ahead with it now when they backed off on the project previously India is probably the weakest it's been, strategically, vis-à-vis China since its founding. India has nukes. But China has a superpower arsenal, together with developing ASAT and thus ABM capabilities. China has ports in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, which means it is beginning to develop the capability to blockade India. (India's coastline is deceptively short--Cheseapeake Bay's is longer.) Given India's dependence on imported energy, that's like a two week to 90-day shutdown option on Indian industry held by China. (Caveat: China has not demonstrated blue-water naval capabilities.) Finally, a lot of India's weapons systems are Russian. Those have both been shown to be worthless against Western kit, which China may be able to rival, and would be compromised in a war between China and India given Moscow's growing subservience to Beijing.
- blackeyeblitzar 2y ago
  What’s India’s strategy, if they have one? They’re not friends with the US either right? Officially America designates Pakistan as an ally as I recall. So what can they do? Simply strengthen economic and defense ties with the EU and US?
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > They’re not friends with the US either right? Wrong [1][2]. > They’re not friends with the US either right? Officially America designates Pakistan as an ally as I recall I don't believe America has signed any alliances with Pakistan since the 50s. By the time The Atlantic was running "The Ally From Hell" in 2011 [3], U.S.-Islamabad relations were already in the bin. (We potted Bin Laden earlier that year.) > strengthen economic and defense ties with the EU and US? EU is too far away and too weak. Better bets would be Japan and Australia, i.e. the Quad. (Maybe also Korea, for their shipyards.) I'd love to say America, as an American of Indian descent, but our foreign policy isn't reliable right now. Were I Delhi, I’d focus on keeping China bogged down with Russia and contained by Taiwan while I built my green-water naval capabilities and energy security (coal, hydro, solar and maybe nuclear if the Americans will build it). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadrilateral_Security_Dialogue https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadrilateral_Security_Dialogu... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-03/india-pivots-from-russia-to-us-for-cutting-edge-weapons https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-03/india-piv... [3] https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/12/the-ally-from-hell/308730/ https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/12/the-all...
    - blackeyeblitzar 2y ago
      Found the thing I was thinking of: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_non-NATO_ally#Pakistan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_non-NATO_ally#Pakistan