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Let us face it, the European welfare model is a blind alley. No one in the world is going to copy this from us again, now that it is clear that it makes us a)

Let us face it, the European welfare model is a blind alley. No one in the world is going to copy this from us again, now that it is clear that it makes us a) uncompetitive - taxes too high, too much protection for people who might not merit it; b) less likely to start new businesses - in theory, you can have a great welfare system and a great atmosphere for enterpreneurship, but in practice, the former will usually stifle the latter, as the "eat the rich" types will dominate the discourse; c) extremely vulnerable to the aging problem. Too many pensioners, not enough kids, not enough highly qualified migrants who have zero reason to subject themselves to lower compensation, higher taxation and, on the top of all, interaction with bureacracy that insists on the local language. OTOH hardly literate people from Afghanistan or Niger don't mind any of that; the German / Dutch / Swedish welfare system will take care of them even if they do nothing and/or immerse themselves in the black market. IDK how to get out of this pickle, the local population is addicted to high welfare spending and other onerous protections like to crack and won't vote against it, even though it is becoming clear that as we fall more and more behind the US, we won't be able to afford a system like that. Robust welfare states can be only carried by robust economies and a lot of young workers. Those conditions existed in the 1960s or 1970s, and our current systems are downstream from that, but the foundation is eroding with every passing year. The final collapse will be pretty ugly, something like Argentina, but full of 70 y.o. paupers. Weaker spots in the EU already have a huge problem providing healthcare to the elderly, or even anyone. On paper, it is an universal right, but in reality, there simply aren't enough doctors to carry this obligation out. The Czech Republic is somewhere in the middle, nowhere near as bad as rural Bulgaria, but try finding a dentist who accepts insurance patients outside the major cities like Brno and Prague. That will be an exercise in the impossible.

shafyy 2y ago
What does "European welfare model" even mean? Europe consists of many countries, and different countries have significantly different welfare models. Many EU countries have enough wealth, the problem is that it is unevenly distributed.
- inglor_cz 2y ago
  "Europe consists of many countries, and different countries have significantly different welfare models." In general, single payer healthcare + pay-as-you-go pension systems + relatively comfortable welfare systems + high taxation and regulation to support those systems. Yes, there are meaningful differences across the continent. But visible outliers are scarce. One of the really nasty consequences is underfunded defense, which caught up with us once Russia started acting on its imperial dreams. "Many EU countries have enough wealth, the problem is that it is unevenly distributed." A typical EU government spends about 40 per cent of the GDP, with the heaviest part of the spending being pensions. The worst outlier, France, around 55 per cent. If this is not enough, it will never be enough, short of mass expropriations. We already have a massive brain drain to the US. More punitive taxation = more brain drain.
  - shafyy 2y ago
    It makes sense to me that a big portion of government spending goes towards social welfare and healthcare – at the end, that's one of the most important things. I agree that defense was underfunded in many EU countries. But hindsight is 20-20. If you remember the 2000s, everybody was optimistic about eternal peace in Europe, and global trade without tariffs was at its heights. The lower investment into defense came not at the cost of higher social welfare. The gap between poor and rich is still increasing, and we need ways to address that.
    - inglor_cz 2y ago
      "The gap between poor and rich is still increasing, and we need ways to address that." Do we? For what? We already have a serious problem in Europe that we totally missed the IT revolution. In the list of the biggest corporations in the world, US tech giants dominate. The first European entry is Louis Vuitton, a producer of luxury handbags. Either we are going to have a robust economy that can support the levels of taxation which carry the welfare state, but that means that someone is inevitably going to become very rich. If someone succeeds in building European Amazon, they will be in the same category of rich as Jeff Bezos. Or we will still have our legacy giants like Louis Vuitton and a more equitable distributon of poverty. But hey, no new digital parvenus up there. You are concerned about the gap between the rich and the poor. What about the gap between the US and the EU economy? That is growing pretty fast. Already we are small brothers to the big brother overseas. 20 or 30 more years of our current stagnation and we will be global nobodies; no one will bother to implement our strict regulations to gain access to our markets.
xkbarkar 2y ago
Not sure why you are being downvoted. I live in welfare mecca with the worlds highest tax pressure and heqlthcare is breaking under the load. Staff is overworked and underpayed, waiy lines for crucial procedures can count to decades. The workforce is aging because young people have stoped reproducing and fear of losing welfare money and the sight of brown faces prevents authoritiesfrom importing competent foreign non eutopean workforce. This will collapse. There is no doubt this is not sustainable. This is not an uneven distribution of wealth. Its a monster system that costs more than the national GDP can reasonably sustain in the long term. Now I am no proponent of privatized healthcare, the current system does not work though. Everyone suffers like this. Note: My employer provides private healthcare insueance for us. I live in the richest part if the world. The Nordics. My private insurances gets me same day medical appointments. The poor sods that cannot afford it have to wait weeks. Tell me how this is fair and how wonderful the nordic welfare is?? Its americanized and terrible for almost twice the price
- inglor_cz 2y ago
  My experience is that many liberal Americans tend to admire European welfare systems as a counterpoint to the more cut-throat US systems, and really, really don't want to discuss the downsides. People need to dream, I guess. The US is a terrible place to live in if you are poor. But for a typical Hacker News denizen, moving anywhere to the high-taxation domiciles of Europe would mean a major loss of income and worsening of many services.
  - Tainnor 2y ago
    > But for a typical Hacker News denizen, moving anywhere to the high-taxation domiciles of Europe would mean a major loss of income and worsening of many services. What's a "typical Hacker News denizen"? Not everyone is driven solely by monetary concerns. I visited the US in autumn, had a good time, but would I live there? No. I think "many services" are actually better in many parts of Europe (such as public transport). Others may see it differently and that's fine, but please let's not act like the US isn't crumbling under a weight of 100 problems at least just as much as Europe.
twixfel 2y ago
Yeah the system doesn't work. Nothing has convinced me more of that fact than living in Germany has. If your system only works for a single generation in which you have an unusually large working population and relatively few children and relatively few old people, then your system doesn't work. The German system never worked, it was always just running on borrowed time.
- Tainnor 2y ago
  The system that Bismarck established in the 19th century "only works for a single generation" - sure.
  - twixfel 2y ago
    Back when the life expectancy at birth was forty you mean? And the system has expanded greatly since then. Handouts for almost everyone except normal workers who pay the highest taxes on labour in the world after Belgium. And yes the system has stopped working now the population has stopped growing. Germany as an antiquated boomerocracy is unrivalled as far as I am aware.
    - nyssos 2y ago
      Life expectancy at birth is irrelevant, people who die in infancy don't consume many resources at all. What matters is the percentage of the population that's of working age, and here Germany is fairly typical for a developed country.
      - twixfel 2y ago
        It matters in combination with the tax rate on the working population. There are huge transfers of wealth ongoing from the working class to the retired class of people, who are the richest generation in history. People need to wake up and protect their class interests an stop arguing for this German Ponzi scheme.
BlueTemplar 2y ago
I'm not sure what you're expecting demography-wise : would you rather have this, an unsustainable population growth or an average lifespan of 40 years ? But also, yes, in the "West" we've been living way above our means for almost a century now, and the chickens are starting to come home to roost.

shafyy 2y ago

What does "European welfare model" even mean? Europe consists of many countries, and different countries have significantly different welfare models. Many EU countries have enough wealth, the problem is that it is unevenly distributed.

inglor_cz 2y ago
"Europe consists of many countries, and different countries have significantly different welfare models." In general, single payer healthcare + pay-as-you-go pension systems + relatively comfortable welfare systems + high taxation and regulation to support those systems. Yes, there are meaningful differences across the continent. But visible outliers are scarce. One of the really nasty consequences is underfunded defense, which caught up with us once Russia started acting on its imperial dreams. "Many EU countries have enough wealth, the problem is that it is unevenly distributed." A typical EU government spends about 40 per cent of the GDP, with the heaviest part of the spending being pensions. The worst outlier, France, around 55 per cent. If this is not enough, it will never be enough, short of mass expropriations. We already have a massive brain drain to the US. More punitive taxation = more brain drain.
- shafyy 2y ago
  It makes sense to me that a big portion of government spending goes towards social welfare and healthcare – at the end, that's one of the most important things. I agree that defense was underfunded in many EU countries. But hindsight is 20-20. If you remember the 2000s, everybody was optimistic about eternal peace in Europe, and global trade without tariffs was at its heights. The lower investment into defense came not at the cost of higher social welfare. The gap between poor and rich is still increasing, and we need ways to address that.
  - inglor_cz 2y ago
    "The gap between poor and rich is still increasing, and we need ways to address that." Do we? For what? We already have a serious problem in Europe that we totally missed the IT revolution. In the list of the biggest corporations in the world, US tech giants dominate. The first European entry is Louis Vuitton, a producer of luxury handbags. Either we are going to have a robust economy that can support the levels of taxation which carry the welfare state, but that means that someone is inevitably going to become very rich. If someone succeeds in building European Amazon, they will be in the same category of rich as Jeff Bezos. Or we will still have our legacy giants like Louis Vuitton and a more equitable distributon of poverty. But hey, no new digital parvenus up there. You are concerned about the gap between the rich and the poor. What about the gap between the US and the EU economy? That is growing pretty fast. Already we are small brothers to the big brother overseas. 20 or 30 more years of our current stagnation and we will be global nobodies; no one will bother to implement our strict regulations to gain access to our markets.

xkbarkar 2y ago

Not sure why you are being downvoted. I live in welfare mecca with the worlds highest tax pressure and heqlthcare is breaking under the load. Staff is overworked and underpayed, waiy lines for crucial procedures can count to decades. The workforce is aging because young people have stoped reproducing and fear of losing welfare money and the sight of brown faces prevents authoritiesfrom importing competent foreign non eutopean workforce. This will collapse. There is no doubt this is not sustainable. This is not an uneven distribution of wealth. Its a monster system that costs more than the national GDP can reasonably sustain in the long term. Now I am no proponent of privatized healthcare, the current system does not work though. Everyone suffers like this. Note: My employer provides private healthcare insueance for us. I live in the richest part if the world. The Nordics. My private insurances gets me same day medical appointments. The poor sods that cannot afford it have to wait weeks. Tell me how this is fair and how wonderful the nordic welfare is?? Its americanized and terrible for almost twice the price

inglor_cz 2y ago
My experience is that many liberal Americans tend to admire European welfare systems as a counterpoint to the more cut-throat US systems, and really, really don't want to discuss the downsides. People need to dream, I guess. The US is a terrible place to live in if you are poor. But for a typical Hacker News denizen, moving anywhere to the high-taxation domiciles of Europe would mean a major loss of income and worsening of many services.
- Tainnor 2y ago
  > But for a typical Hacker News denizen, moving anywhere to the high-taxation domiciles of Europe would mean a major loss of income and worsening of many services. What's a "typical Hacker News denizen"? Not everyone is driven solely by monetary concerns. I visited the US in autumn, had a good time, but would I live there? No. I think "many services" are actually better in many parts of Europe (such as public transport). Others may see it differently and that's fine, but please let's not act like the US isn't crumbling under a weight of 100 problems at least just as much as Europe.

twixfel 2y ago

Yeah the system doesn't work. Nothing has convinced me more of that fact than living in Germany has. If your system only works for a single generation in which you have an unusually large working population and relatively few children and relatively few old people, then your system doesn't work. The German system never worked, it was always just running on borrowed time.

Tainnor 2y ago
The system that Bismarck established in the 19th century "only works for a single generation" - sure.
- twixfel 2y ago
  Back when the life expectancy at birth was forty you mean? And the system has expanded greatly since then. Handouts for almost everyone except normal workers who pay the highest taxes on labour in the world after Belgium. And yes the system has stopped working now the population has stopped growing. Germany as an antiquated boomerocracy is unrivalled as far as I am aware.
  - nyssos 2y ago
    Life expectancy at birth is irrelevant, people who die in infancy don't consume many resources at all. What matters is the percentage of the population that's of working age, and here Germany is fairly typical for a developed country.
    - twixfel 2y ago
      It matters in combination with the tax rate on the working population. There are huge transfers of wealth ongoing from the working class to the retired class of people, who are the richest generation in history. People need to wake up and protect their class interests an stop arguing for this German Ponzi scheme.

BlueTemplar 2y ago

I'm not sure what you're expecting demography-wise : would you rather have this, an unsustainable population growth or an average lifespan of 40 years ? But also, yes, in the "West" we've been living way above our means for almost a century now, and the chickens are starting to come home to roost.