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Unemployment in Russia was historically low for many years before the war and the war is now suffocating Russian economy, not boosting it, by draining resources

Unemployment in Russia was historically low for many years before the war and the war is now suffocating Russian economy, not boosting it, by draining resources, scaring immigrants and flooding the economy with cheap money — inflation and interest rates are very high. As soon as war stops, there will be temporary recession, but it will recover same way as it happened several times before in previous crises. Currently there’s no way for the West to bend Russia to Ukrainian terms: the time is against Ukraine more than against Russia. The war will end on favorable terms to Putin, his power stronger than ever.

tim333 2y ago
>Currently there’s no way for the West to bend Russia to Ukrainian terms The West has been pretty wishy washy on blocking Russian oil sales. That could change. Trump is just itching to have a tariff war and tariffs/sanctions on any country buying Russian oil, including India and China could cause problems for Russia with it being their main source of income and their being a bit on the edge financially already.
- ivan_gammel 2y ago
  >That could change I think what Trump has done to Colombia is not reproducible at scale and he won't use the same approach against China or India for wrong reason (war in Ukraine is an unworthy problem in "America first" mindset). Monroe doctrine may be still alive, but re-alignment is going to happen everywhere now and further sanctions will have less and less effect because of that most of all. I do think that the West has lost this war in 2023, when Biden and northwest of Europe were sleeping and ignoring the signs. This happened not least because the West does not actually care about Ukraine, it's pure moral standing with zero strategic interest. I mean, Poland may believe that Ukraine is a good buffer and Baltics may believe that Ukraine is a good distraction, but what makes them safe is that they do enjoy Article 5 protection and Russia will not test that for wrong reason.
  - tim333 2y ago
    I just watched Anders Puck Nielsen latest and he thinks both sides think they are winning - Putin because he's taking territory and the Ukrainians because they think Russia's economy will collapse. Time will tell I guess https://youtu.be/lNZ56C-f4a8?t=362 https://youtu.be/lNZ56C-f4a8?t=362 re "the West does not actually care about Ukraine", I think they care about the principle that you should be able to go about your business without getting invaded more than about Ukraine specifically. It's like if someone gets mugged in your town - you may not care that much about the specific victim but you care about the principle that the muggers don't get away with it.
    - ivan_gammel 2y ago
      Yeah, some part of Western political elites does care about it, sometimes dogmatically. However it is applied selectively and with plenty of excuses - a moral standing, but not a moral standard. And it has quite low priority compared to vital national interests or even internal politics.

tim333 2y ago

>Currently there’s no way for the West to bend Russia to Ukrainian terms The West has been pretty wishy washy on blocking Russian oil sales. That could change. Trump is just itching to have a tariff war and tariffs/sanctions on any country buying Russian oil, including India and China could cause problems for Russia with it being their main source of income and their being a bit on the edge financially already.

ivan_gammel 2y ago
>That could change I think what Trump has done to Colombia is not reproducible at scale and he won't use the same approach against China or India for wrong reason (war in Ukraine is an unworthy problem in "America first" mindset). Monroe doctrine may be still alive, but re-alignment is going to happen everywhere now and further sanctions will have less and less effect because of that most of all. I do think that the West has lost this war in 2023, when Biden and northwest of Europe were sleeping and ignoring the signs. This happened not least because the West does not actually care about Ukraine, it's pure moral standing with zero strategic interest. I mean, Poland may believe that Ukraine is a good buffer and Baltics may believe that Ukraine is a good distraction, but what makes them safe is that they do enjoy Article 5 protection and Russia will not test that for wrong reason.
- tim333 2y ago
  I just watched Anders Puck Nielsen latest and he thinks both sides think they are winning - Putin because he's taking territory and the Ukrainians because they think Russia's economy will collapse. Time will tell I guess https://youtu.be/lNZ56C-f4a8?t=362 https://youtu.be/lNZ56C-f4a8?t=362 re "the West does not actually care about Ukraine", I think they care about the principle that you should be able to go about your business without getting invaded more than about Ukraine specifically. It's like if someone gets mugged in your town - you may not care that much about the specific victim but you care about the principle that the muggers don't get away with it.
  - ivan_gammel 2y ago
    Yeah, some part of Western political elites does care about it, sometimes dogmatically. However it is applied selectively and with plenty of excuses - a moral standing, but not a moral standard. And it has quite low priority compared to vital national interests or even internal politics.