6 ms·

Putin threw the dice a bit too many times, got too brazen, and is now locked in a situation he can't get out of. End the war, and Russia will collapse as there'

by 127 2y ago

Putin threw the dice a bit too many times, got too brazen, and is now locked in a situation he can't get out of. End the war, and Russia will collapse as there's no war to employ people, or give everyone a foreign bogeyman. Don't end the war, the economy might still collapse but at least it will take longer and you might not live long enough to see it.

hkpack 2y ago
The war is going their way and they don’t want to stop it, they are winning. Economy will not collapse while China (and other “neutral” countries) supports it.
- jiggawatts 2y ago
  It’ll be a pyrrhic victory at best. They’ll take control of a devastated area of a poor country that was worse off than them in every economically relevant sense before the war. Any oil or gas they might get control of, Europe will be less interested in buying. Their military will be so degraded that they might face a series of rebellions in their border regions in the next decade — and will be unable to stop. Their loss of male manpower especially is a slow but sure death-blow to their economy over the next couple of decades. Even if they rolled through Kiev with tanks tomorrow, the future for the typical Russian looks bleak. (My prediction is that just like other countries with bad demographics, Russia will require mass-immigration in the near future to avoid collapse. This will dilute their national identity, weaken central control, cause internal strife, etc… Also, if you’re a poor Asian worker looking for a country to move to, would you rather choose South Korea or rural Russia?)
  - hkpack 2y ago
    Because you don’t understand what is at stakes. It is not that they are winning territory, they gain power over EU. If they win, EU politically will be destroyed as half of Europe will seek protection by agreeing to whoever promise it, while US withdrawing from all its obligations. It is really may be a new order when everyone is on themselves.
    - throwaway182327 2y ago
      I agree that the US might withdraw (under Trump), but the EU can defend itself. It spends EUR 330 billion on defense, way more than Russia. It has more people. It can build nuclear weapons on demand. I think all the statements that the EU "is freeloading" on the US are not factual. The US spends more than the EU because it has a nuclear arsenal (forbidden for many EU countries) and regularly engages in hegemonic wars like in the second Iraq war or in Afghanistan. If the US withdraws its forces from the EU, Poland alone could stop a Russian invasion, not to mention a two front war with Finland involved. I blame the EU politicians for not responding with more confidence and concrete examples like the above to Trump's recent statements. Trump has no cards to play. If he leaves, good riddance. If he threatens 50% tariffs, block Google, Meta, Amazon, X and Tesla. This is the language he understands.
      - hkpack 2y ago
        EU will only be able to defend itself if it stays united, which is not a given in the future. There is no guarantee that part of the EU will decide not to block any joint military action for either fear of retaliation from russia or because of separate peace agreements with it. You can see that right now US incites division in multiple ways: Musk in Germany, Republicans in UK, Trump in Denmark. These are all coordinated attacks with the same strategic goals.
      - lifestyleguru 2y ago
        > Poland alone could stop a Russian invasion The Polish "elite" has portfolio of real estates located from Spain to Dubai. The Russian invasion would be meatgrinder of youngish non rich male population as in Ukraine.
        hkpack 2y ago
        The average age of Ukrainian soldier is 42.
        Detrytus 2y ago
  - wiseowise 2y ago
    All of this is irrelevant. Putin needs domestic victory and if he can save his face in the end, then it was all worth it. Whether their military still stands is irrelevant too, because they have nukes.
  - ivan_gammel 2y ago
    > Any oil or gas they might get control of… Oil and gas are the last thing that comes to mind when thinking about resources of that region. Coal, agriculture, manufacturing… > Their military will be so degraded Russian army is currently stronger than before the war. There’s ongoing purge in ministry of defense to clean the ranks from corruption, they learned a lot and invested a lot in military industrial complex. The casualties are high, mostly among fresh recruits, but also a lot of professional military personnel got plenty of experience. It will be wrong to dismiss it. > that they might face a series of rebellions in their border regions in the next decade Absolutely not. Situation in politics is very stable now and there’s no path leading to such destabilization. >Also, if you’re a poor Asian worker looking for a country to move to, would you rather choose South Korea or rural Russia? Central Asian workers did well and will be fine in construction, hospitality and few other sectors in Russia where they historically filled significant numbers of jobs. They are scared now, but as the war ends, incentive to return will be high. Biggest Russian advantage here over South Korea is cultural proximity, shared language and established travel routes.
    - jiggawatts 2y ago
      > Coal, agriculture, manufacturing… Coal usage is levelling off and might even start going backwards over the next decade: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-coal-consumption-2000-2025 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-coal-c... You can't farm in soil that's filled with landmines, unexploded ordinance, and various shrapnel metals. Just ask how productive the fields of Verdun are. Ukraine wasn't exactly a manufacturing powerhouse before the war, and Russia nearly levelled a big chunk of it, such as the Azovstal steel plant. > Russian army is currently stronger than before the war. Have you not watched /r/combatfootage recently? They're doing suicide-runs with golf buggies. They've completely run out of entire categories of armoured vehicles. They might have more meat left for the grinder, but they're forced to buy shells from North Korea! > It will be wrong to dismiss it. Oh sure, they retain a lot of strength on paper, but we've all seen what that paper is worth over the last three days... err... years. > very stable now and there’s no path leading to such destabilization. “How did you go bankrupt?” The other responds, “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” > They are scared now "Everything is fine" != "They are scared". > incentive to return will be high What incentive? The Ruble is going to lose a lot of its value when the Russian government can no longer afford to artificially prop it up. People don't like being paid in turnips and promises. > South Korea is cultural proximity, shared language and established travel routes. Sure, maybe, but would you rather work in an air-conditioned robotics factory that looks like a clean-room and getting paid in hard currency or cutting lumber in Siberia and getting paid in Rubles?
  - Animats 2y ago
    > Russia will require mass-immigration in the near future to avoid collapse. Russia's male military-age population is under 12 million, and maybe 800,000 have been killed or seriously injured so far. The solution Russia is trying: "Pregnant at 16", a reality TV show, to encourage young women to get pregnant.[1] They need fresh meat for the grinder. [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/10/russia-population-demography-children-family https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/10/russia-popul...
    - tim333 2y ago
      It's kind of sad really. Here's video of some of their troops being sent to attack on crutches, presumably either because they are short of soldiers or Putin would just prefer them dead to returning wounded. https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1i6w20y/elite_russian_soldiers_ordered_to_attack_using/ https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1i6w20y/elite_russ...
    - jiggawatts 2y ago
      They've been sacrificing less-than-ideal workers, such as the over-40s, the less educated from rural regions, and prisoners. The numbers of young men are dropping only indirectly, because they emigrated to escape potential conscription, or just escaping Russia in general. This brain-drain is going to kneecap their economy.
      - lifestyleguru 2y ago
        Demographic analysis in a modern sense is irrelevant for Russia. They will need to introduce something resembling feudal slavery and suck people out from former Soviet Union republics.
- tim333 2y ago
  That's debatable. Russia has lost most of its good troops, much of its soviet guns and ammo and is now having to turn to N Korea of all places to bail it out. Plus ever more industrial stuff in Russia is blowing up from Ukrainian drones. In Syria and Afghanistan they looked like they were doing ok until they collapsed. I'm not sure when they last won a major war without US backing?
  - ivan_gammel 2y ago
    >Russia has lost most of its good troops, much of its soviet guns and ammo and is now having to turn to N Korea of all places to bail it out Shells from North Korea are just clickbait news taken out of context. Russia produces locally 3x times more shells for this war than the entire NATO.
fullstackwife 2y ago
Western Europe and Germany in particular are like Sméagol thinking about cheap Russian gas, and they dreamed about ending the war ASAP since 2022, because without cheap gas leverage their economy will sink. Also a political crisis in EU is inevitable: similar change as it happened in the US now, but a lot more violent (as usual in Europe history). Extending the war seems to be the current plan for Putin.
- lifestyleguru 2y ago
  Once German and Polish markets for Russian gas disappeared, smaller players immediately grabbed the opportunity. For Orban and Fico cheap Russian gas means absolute lifetime power in Hungary and in Slovakia.
  - rad_gruchalski 2y ago
    Fico just lost majority in parliament.
ivan_gammel 2y ago
Unemployment in Russia was historically low for many years before the war and the war is now suffocating Russian economy, not boosting it, by draining resources, scaring immigrants and flooding the economy with cheap money — inflation and interest rates are very high. As soon as war stops, there will be temporary recession, but it will recover same way as it happened several times before in previous crises. Currently there’s no way for the West to bend Russia to Ukrainian terms: the time is against Ukraine more than against Russia. The war will end on favorable terms to Putin, his power stronger than ever.
- tim333 2y ago
  >Currently there’s no way for the West to bend Russia to Ukrainian terms The West has been pretty wishy washy on blocking Russian oil sales. That could change. Trump is just itching to have a tariff war and tariffs/sanctions on any country buying Russian oil, including India and China could cause problems for Russia with it being their main source of income and their being a bit on the edge financially already.
  - ivan_gammel 2y ago
    >That could change I think what Trump has done to Colombia is not reproducible at scale and he won't use the same approach against China or India for wrong reason (war in Ukraine is an unworthy problem in "America first" mindset). Monroe doctrine may be still alive, but re-alignment is going to happen everywhere now and further sanctions will have less and less effect because of that most of all. I do think that the West has lost this war in 2023, when Biden and northwest of Europe were sleeping and ignoring the signs. This happened not least because the West does not actually care about Ukraine, it's pure moral standing with zero strategic interest. I mean, Poland may believe that Ukraine is a good buffer and Baltics may believe that Ukraine is a good distraction, but what makes them safe is that they do enjoy Article 5 protection and Russia will not test that for wrong reason.
    - tim333 2y ago
      I just watched Anders Puck Nielsen latest and he thinks both sides think they are winning - Putin because he's taking territory and the Ukrainians because they think Russia's economy will collapse. Time will tell I guess https://youtu.be/lNZ56C-f4a8?t=362 https://youtu.be/lNZ56C-f4a8?t=362 re "the West does not actually care about Ukraine", I think they care about the principle that you should be able to go about your business without getting invaded more than about Ukraine specifically. It's like if someone gets mugged in your town - you may not care that much about the specific victim but you care about the principle that the muggers don't get away with it.
blackeyeblitzar 2y ago
China is partnering closely with Russia and will help support their economy, perhaps in exchange for sensitive tech like hypersonic missiles or jet engines or whatever. They may also negotiate a purchase of Russian territory, on the east, in a worst case scenario for the US.
andy_ppp 2y ago
I’m not sure where I heard this phrase but I love it so much: being a dictator is like riding a wolf by the ears, the only thing more terrifying than continuing to hold on is letting go.
- blooalien 2y ago
  Most of the search results I turn up attribute it to Thomas Jefferson. A similar quote, "Dictators ride to and fro upon tigers from which they dare not dismount." is attributed to Winston Churchill, but apparently his quote derives from even older sayings from China (… he who rides a tiger cannot dismount …, … to bind a tiger is easy, the trouble is to let him loose …, etc). "The More You Know" ~ PSA jingle sounds ~ :)
  - andy_ppp 2y ago
    All quotes eventually end up being attributed to Winston Churchill whether he said them or not…
    - blooalien 2y ago
      Einstein and Samuel Clemens (Mark Twain), too... :)

by 127 2y ago

hkpack 2y ago

The war is going their way and they don’t want to stop it, they are winning. Economy will not collapse while China (and other “neutral” countries) supports it.

jiggawatts 2y ago
It’ll be a pyrrhic victory at best. They’ll take control of a devastated area of a poor country that was worse off than them in every economically relevant sense before the war. Any oil or gas they might get control of, Europe will be less interested in buying. Their military will be so degraded that they might face a series of rebellions in their border regions in the next decade — and will be unable to stop. Their loss of male manpower especially is a slow but sure death-blow to their economy over the next couple of decades. Even if they rolled through Kiev with tanks tomorrow, the future for the typical Russian looks bleak. (My prediction is that just like other countries with bad demographics, Russia will require mass-immigration in the near future to avoid collapse. This will dilute their national identity, weaken central control, cause internal strife, etc… Also, if you’re a poor Asian worker looking for a country to move to, would you rather choose South Korea or rural Russia?)
- hkpack 2y ago
  Because you don’t understand what is at stakes. It is not that they are winning territory, they gain power over EU. If they win, EU politically will be destroyed as half of Europe will seek protection by agreeing to whoever promise it, while US withdrawing from all its obligations. It is really may be a new order when everyone is on themselves.
  - throwaway182327 2y ago
    I agree that the US might withdraw (under Trump), but the EU can defend itself. It spends EUR 330 billion on defense, way more than Russia. It has more people. It can build nuclear weapons on demand. I think all the statements that the EU "is freeloading" on the US are not factual. The US spends more than the EU because it has a nuclear arsenal (forbidden for many EU countries) and regularly engages in hegemonic wars like in the second Iraq war or in Afghanistan. If the US withdraws its forces from the EU, Poland alone could stop a Russian invasion, not to mention a two front war with Finland involved. I blame the EU politicians for not responding with more confidence and concrete examples like the above to Trump's recent statements. Trump has no cards to play. If he leaves, good riddance. If he threatens 50% tariffs, block Google, Meta, Amazon, X and Tesla. This is the language he understands.
    - hkpack 2y ago
      EU will only be able to defend itself if it stays united, which is not a given in the future. There is no guarantee that part of the EU will decide not to block any joint military action for either fear of retaliation from russia or because of separate peace agreements with it. You can see that right now US incites division in multiple ways: Musk in Germany, Republicans in UK, Trump in Denmark. These are all coordinated attacks with the same strategic goals.
    - lifestyleguru 2y ago
      > Poland alone could stop a Russian invasion The Polish "elite" has portfolio of real estates located from Spain to Dubai. The Russian invasion would be meatgrinder of youngish non rich male population as in Ukraine.
      - hkpack 2y ago
        The average age of Ukrainian soldier is 42.
        Detrytus 2y ago
- wiseowise 2y ago
  All of this is irrelevant. Putin needs domestic victory and if he can save his face in the end, then it was all worth it. Whether their military still stands is irrelevant too, because they have nukes.
- ivan_gammel 2y ago
  > Any oil or gas they might get control of… Oil and gas are the last thing that comes to mind when thinking about resources of that region. Coal, agriculture, manufacturing… > Their military will be so degraded Russian army is currently stronger than before the war. There’s ongoing purge in ministry of defense to clean the ranks from corruption, they learned a lot and invested a lot in military industrial complex. The casualties are high, mostly among fresh recruits, but also a lot of professional military personnel got plenty of experience. It will be wrong to dismiss it. > that they might face a series of rebellions in their border regions in the next decade Absolutely not. Situation in politics is very stable now and there’s no path leading to such destabilization. >Also, if you’re a poor Asian worker looking for a country to move to, would you rather choose South Korea or rural Russia? Central Asian workers did well and will be fine in construction, hospitality and few other sectors in Russia where they historically filled significant numbers of jobs. They are scared now, but as the war ends, incentive to return will be high. Biggest Russian advantage here over South Korea is cultural proximity, shared language and established travel routes.
  - jiggawatts 2y ago
    > Coal, agriculture, manufacturing… Coal usage is levelling off and might even start going backwards over the next decade: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-coal-consumption-2000-2025 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-coal-c... You can't farm in soil that's filled with landmines, unexploded ordinance, and various shrapnel metals. Just ask how productive the fields of Verdun are. Ukraine wasn't exactly a manufacturing powerhouse before the war, and Russia nearly levelled a big chunk of it, such as the Azovstal steel plant. > Russian army is currently stronger than before the war. Have you not watched /r/combatfootage recently? They're doing suicide-runs with golf buggies. They've completely run out of entire categories of armoured vehicles. They might have more meat left for the grinder, but they're forced to buy shells from North Korea! > It will be wrong to dismiss it. Oh sure, they retain a lot of strength on paper, but we've all seen what that paper is worth over the last three days... err... years. > very stable now and there’s no path leading to such destabilization. “How did you go bankrupt?” The other responds, “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” > They are scared now "Everything is fine" != "They are scared". > incentive to return will be high What incentive? The Ruble is going to lose a lot of its value when the Russian government can no longer afford to artificially prop it up. People don't like being paid in turnips and promises. > South Korea is cultural proximity, shared language and established travel routes. Sure, maybe, but would you rather work in an air-conditioned robotics factory that looks like a clean-room and getting paid in hard currency or cutting lumber in Siberia and getting paid in Rubles?
- Animats 2y ago
  > Russia will require mass-immigration in the near future to avoid collapse. Russia's male military-age population is under 12 million, and maybe 800,000 have been killed or seriously injured so far. The solution Russia is trying: "Pregnant at 16", a reality TV show, to encourage young women to get pregnant.[1] They need fresh meat for the grinder. [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/10/russia-population-demography-children-family https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/10/russia-popul...
  - tim333 2y ago
    It's kind of sad really. Here's video of some of their troops being sent to attack on crutches, presumably either because they are short of soldiers or Putin would just prefer them dead to returning wounded. https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1i6w20y/elite_russian_soldiers_ordered_to_attack_using/ https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1i6w20y/elite_russ...
  - jiggawatts 2y ago
    They've been sacrificing less-than-ideal workers, such as the over-40s, the less educated from rural regions, and prisoners. The numbers of young men are dropping only indirectly, because they emigrated to escape potential conscription, or just escaping Russia in general. This brain-drain is going to kneecap their economy.
    - lifestyleguru 2y ago
      Demographic analysis in a modern sense is irrelevant for Russia. They will need to introduce something resembling feudal slavery and suck people out from former Soviet Union republics.
tim333 2y ago
That's debatable. Russia has lost most of its good troops, much of its soviet guns and ammo and is now having to turn to N Korea of all places to bail it out. Plus ever more industrial stuff in Russia is blowing up from Ukrainian drones. In Syria and Afghanistan they looked like they were doing ok until they collapsed. I'm not sure when they last won a major war without US backing?
- ivan_gammel 2y ago
  >Russia has lost most of its good troops, much of its soviet guns and ammo and is now having to turn to N Korea of all places to bail it out Shells from North Korea are just clickbait news taken out of context. Russia produces locally 3x times more shells for this war than the entire NATO.

fullstackwife 2y ago

Western Europe and Germany in particular are like Sméagol thinking about cheap Russian gas, and they dreamed about ending the war ASAP since 2022, because without cheap gas leverage their economy will sink. Also a political crisis in EU is inevitable: similar change as it happened in the US now, but a lot more violent (as usual in Europe history). Extending the war seems to be the current plan for Putin.

lifestyleguru 2y ago
Once German and Polish markets for Russian gas disappeared, smaller players immediately grabbed the opportunity. For Orban and Fico cheap Russian gas means absolute lifetime power in Hungary and in Slovakia.
- rad_gruchalski 2y ago
  Fico just lost majority in parliament.

ivan_gammel 2y ago

Unemployment in Russia was historically low for many years before the war and the war is now suffocating Russian economy, not boosting it, by draining resources, scaring immigrants and flooding the economy with cheap money — inflation and interest rates are very high. As soon as war stops, there will be temporary recession, but it will recover same way as it happened several times before in previous crises. Currently there’s no way for the West to bend Russia to Ukrainian terms: the time is against Ukraine more than against Russia. The war will end on favorable terms to Putin, his power stronger than ever.

tim333 2y ago
>Currently there’s no way for the West to bend Russia to Ukrainian terms The West has been pretty wishy washy on blocking Russian oil sales. That could change. Trump is just itching to have a tariff war and tariffs/sanctions on any country buying Russian oil, including India and China could cause problems for Russia with it being their main source of income and their being a bit on the edge financially already.
- ivan_gammel 2y ago
  >That could change I think what Trump has done to Colombia is not reproducible at scale and he won't use the same approach against China or India for wrong reason (war in Ukraine is an unworthy problem in "America first" mindset). Monroe doctrine may be still alive, but re-alignment is going to happen everywhere now and further sanctions will have less and less effect because of that most of all. I do think that the West has lost this war in 2023, when Biden and northwest of Europe were sleeping and ignoring the signs. This happened not least because the West does not actually care about Ukraine, it's pure moral standing with zero strategic interest. I mean, Poland may believe that Ukraine is a good buffer and Baltics may believe that Ukraine is a good distraction, but what makes them safe is that they do enjoy Article 5 protection and Russia will not test that for wrong reason.
  - tim333 2y ago
    I just watched Anders Puck Nielsen latest and he thinks both sides think they are winning - Putin because he's taking territory and the Ukrainians because they think Russia's economy will collapse. Time will tell I guess https://youtu.be/lNZ56C-f4a8?t=362 https://youtu.be/lNZ56C-f4a8?t=362 re "the West does not actually care about Ukraine", I think they care about the principle that you should be able to go about your business without getting invaded more than about Ukraine specifically. It's like if someone gets mugged in your town - you may not care that much about the specific victim but you care about the principle that the muggers don't get away with it.

blackeyeblitzar 2y ago

China is partnering closely with Russia and will help support their economy, perhaps in exchange for sensitive tech like hypersonic missiles or jet engines or whatever. They may also negotiate a purchase of Russian territory, on the east, in a worst case scenario for the US.

andy_ppp 2y ago

I’m not sure where I heard this phrase but I love it so much: being a dictator is like riding a wolf by the ears, the only thing more terrifying than continuing to hold on is letting go.

blooalien 2y ago
Most of the search results I turn up attribute it to Thomas Jefferson. A similar quote, "Dictators ride to and fro upon tigers from which they dare not dismount." is attributed to Winston Churchill, but apparently his quote derives from even older sayings from China (… he who rides a tiger cannot dismount …, … to bind a tiger is easy, the trouble is to let him loose …, etc). "The More You Know" ~ PSA jingle sounds ~ :)
- andy_ppp 2y ago
  All quotes eventually end up being attributed to Winston Churchill whether he said them or not…
  - blooalien 2y ago
    Einstein and Samuel Clemens (Mark Twain), too... :)