> All that differs between them is the tax treatment each gets come tax time. And that if you hold a stock for say 10 years and somehow sell during a recession

> All that differs between them is the tax treatment each gets come tax time. And that if you hold a stock for say 10 years and somehow sell during a recession you could make ~0$ on that stock if it only did buybacks. While with a dividend you'd have come out ahead. Conceptually they have very different incentives as well. With buybacks you want a company to have high volatility as well as to make short term decisions so that you can buy a dip, ask for say lay-offs, and sell as it goes up. With dividends you want the company to make longer term strategic decisions so that their revenue goes up and you get a larger dividend.