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Why should the bubble pop when we just got the proof that these models can be much more efficient than we thought? I mean, sure, no one is going to have a mono

Why should the bubble pop when we just got the proof that these models can be much more efficient than we thought? I mean, sure, no one is going to have a monopoly, and we're going to see a race to the bottom in prices, but on the other hand, the AI revolution is going to come much sooner than expected, and it's going to be on everyone's pocket this year. Isn't that a bullish signal for the economy?

resters 2y ago
Chances are the investors who put in all that capital would rather invest it in the team that has the ability to make the most of it. Deepseek calls into question whether OpenAI, Anthropic or Google are as world class as everyone thought a few days ago.
- bugglebeetle 2y ago
  It doesn’t call it into question- they’re not. OpenAI has been bleeding researchers since the Anthropic split (and arguably their best ones, given Claude vs GPT-4o). While Google should have all the data in the world to build the best models, they still seem organizationally incapable of leveraging it to the their advantage, as was the case with their inventing Transformers in the first place.
  - diego_sandoval 2y ago
    > While Google should have all the data in the world to build the best models They do have the best models. Two models made by Google share the first place on Chatbot Arena. [1] https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard
    - saberience 2y ago
      I'm not sure placing first in Chatbot Arena is proof of anything except being the best at Chatbot Arena, it's been shown that models that format things in a visually more pleasant way tend to win side by side comparisons. In my experience doing actual work, not side by side comparisons, Claude wins outright as a daily work horse for any and all technical tasks. Chatbot Arena may say Gemini is "better", but my reality of solving actual coding problems says Claude is miles ahead.
Deegy 2y ago
I think this is the correct take. There might be a small bubble burst initially after a bunch of US stocks retrace due to uncertainty. But in the long run this should speed up the proliferation of productivity gains unlocked by AI.
- crocowhile 2y ago
  I think we should not underestimate one aspect: at the moment, a lot of hype is artificial (and despicable if you ask me). Anthropic says AI can double human lifespan in 10 years time; openAI says they have AGI behind the corner; META keeps insisting on their model being open source when they in fact only release the weights. They think - maybe they are right - that they would not be able to get these massive investments without hyping things a bit but deepseek's performance should call for things to be reviewed.
  - resters 2y ago
    Based on reports from a16z the US Government likely wants to bifurcate the top-tier tech and bring it into DARPA, with clear rules for how capable anything can be that the public will be able to access. I consider it unlikely that the new administration is philosophically different with respect to its prioritization of "national security" concerns.
  - diego_sandoval 2y ago
    > Anthropic says AI can double human lifespan in 10 years time; That's not a crazy thing to say, at all. Lots of AI researchers think that ASI is less than 5 years away. > deepseek's performance should call for things to be reviewed. Their investments, maybe, their predictions of AGI? They should be reviewed to be more optimistic.
    - crocowhile 2y ago
      I am a professor of Neurobiology, I know a thing or two about lifespan research. To claim that human lifespan can be doubled is crazy per se. To claim it can be done in 10 years by a system that does not even exist is even sillier.

resters 2y ago

Chances are the investors who put in all that capital would rather invest it in the team that has the ability to make the most of it. Deepseek calls into question whether OpenAI, Anthropic or Google are as world class as everyone thought a few days ago.

bugglebeetle 2y ago
It doesn’t call it into question- they’re not. OpenAI has been bleeding researchers since the Anthropic split (and arguably their best ones, given Claude vs GPT-4o). While Google should have all the data in the world to build the best models, they still seem organizationally incapable of leveraging it to the their advantage, as was the case with their inventing Transformers in the first place.
- diego_sandoval 2y ago
  > While Google should have all the data in the world to build the best models They do have the best models. Two models made by Google share the first place on Chatbot Arena. [1] https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard
  - saberience 2y ago
    I'm not sure placing first in Chatbot Arena is proof of anything except being the best at Chatbot Arena, it's been shown that models that format things in a visually more pleasant way tend to win side by side comparisons. In my experience doing actual work, not side by side comparisons, Claude wins outright as a daily work horse for any and all technical tasks. Chatbot Arena may say Gemini is "better", but my reality of solving actual coding problems says Claude is miles ahead.

Deegy 2y ago

I think this is the correct take. There might be a small bubble burst initially after a bunch of US stocks retrace due to uncertainty. But in the long run this should speed up the proliferation of productivity gains unlocked by AI.

crocowhile 2y ago
I think we should not underestimate one aspect: at the moment, a lot of hype is artificial (and despicable if you ask me). Anthropic says AI can double human lifespan in 10 years time; openAI says they have AGI behind the corner; META keeps insisting on their model being open source when they in fact only release the weights. They think - maybe they are right - that they would not be able to get these massive investments without hyping things a bit but deepseek's performance should call for things to be reviewed.
- resters 2y ago
  Based on reports from a16z the US Government likely wants to bifurcate the top-tier tech and bring it into DARPA, with clear rules for how capable anything can be that the public will be able to access. I consider it unlikely that the new administration is philosophically different with respect to its prioritization of "national security" concerns.
- diego_sandoval 2y ago
  > Anthropic says AI can double human lifespan in 10 years time; That's not a crazy thing to say, at all. Lots of AI researchers think that ASI is less than 5 years away. > deepseek's performance should call for things to be reviewed. Their investments, maybe, their predictions of AGI? They should be reviewed to be more optimistic.
  - crocowhile 2y ago
    I am a professor of Neurobiology, I know a thing or two about lifespan research. To claim that human lifespan can be doubled is crazy per se. To claim it can be done in 10 years by a system that does not even exist is even sillier.