3 ms·

It would be startling if humans could reason this way with two kilos of meat consuming 40w. Even more surprising given that we get answers in ~1s with a cross b

by sgt101 2y ago

It would be startling if humans could reason this way with two kilos of meat consuming 40w. Even more surprising given that we get answers in ~1s with a cross brain comms time of about 0.25s To me it's clear that human reasoning is different from a massive search of a latent space. I can say that when I am thinking I maybe try half a dozen ideas or scenarios, but very rarely more. I can't say where those ideas come from or how I make them up though. Maybe we can't frame what it is and how it works with human languages though, which might make it seem magical in some way. Or maybe there's a good framing that I don't know - would love to learn!

naasking 2y ago
> I can say that when I am thinking I maybe try half a dozen ideas or scenarios, but very rarely more You mean you consciously try half a dozen ideas. That's not really reflective of what's happening subconsciously though, which could be a broader kind of search that filters out other possibilities and only bubbles up some options you would consider promising.
daveguy 2y ago
It could be a matter of massively parallel computation (trillions of synapses functioning at once) plus efficiency of chemical-analog vs transistor. But, personally I believe, there are a lot more algorithmic issues between what we are doing now and what the brain is doing. Even if it's just a matter of scale, we are at least a million fold away from the bandwidth and processing power of a single human brain vs exaflop supercomputers, especially in efficiency. Closing that gap, will require 20 years of Moore's law + bandwidth + efficiency + equivalent of 18 years grounded training (probably faster than 18y). We are not close to having our most powerful computers as flexible and general purpose intelligence as a single human. The 20 year limitation is based on processing, efficiency, and bandwidth. Hopefully the algorithms will catch up by then.
- valine 2y ago
  Even if everything you said is true it doesn’t mean general AI is 20 years away. Computers are many orders of magnitude faster at non-parallel tasks. Who’s to say raw clock speeds won’t easily compensate for any deficiencies vs the brain. You can run a trillion parameter model on a single machine today. We’re maybe 4 or 5 years away from that same 1T model running on an iPhone.

by sgt101 2y ago

naasking 2y ago

> I can say that when I am thinking I maybe try half a dozen ideas or scenarios, but very rarely more You mean you consciously try half a dozen ideas. That's not really reflective of what's happening subconsciously though, which could be a broader kind of search that filters out other possibilities and only bubbles up some options you would consider promising.

daveguy 2y ago

It could be a matter of massively parallel computation (trillions of synapses functioning at once) plus efficiency of chemical-analog vs transistor. But, personally I believe, there are a lot more algorithmic issues between what we are doing now and what the brain is doing. Even if it's just a matter of scale, we are at least a million fold away from the bandwidth and processing power of a single human brain vs exaflop supercomputers, especially in efficiency. Closing that gap, will require 20 years of Moore's law + bandwidth + efficiency + equivalent of 18 years grounded training (probably faster than 18y). We are not close to having our most powerful computers as flexible and general purpose intelligence as a single human. The 20 year limitation is based on processing, efficiency, and bandwidth. Hopefully the algorithms will catch up by then.

valine 2y ago
Even if everything you said is true it doesn’t mean general AI is 20 years away. Computers are many orders of magnitude faster at non-parallel tasks. Who’s to say raw clock speeds won’t easily compensate for any deficiencies vs the brain. You can run a trillion parameter model on a single machine today. We’re maybe 4 or 5 years away from that same 1T model running on an iPhone.