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I think you need to discount possible farther future benefits, because so much change can intervene and make the analysis invalid. That is, when people want to
by mlyle 2y ago
I think you need to discount possible farther future benefits, because so much change can intervene and make the analysis invalid.
That is, when people want to do something-- risks tend to be understated and possible future benefits tend to be overstated.
I don't back the precautionary principle, but I do think risk in cost-benefit analysis has to be viewed from a pretty cautious place, in general (not just science).
- Retric 2y agoUltimately, we don’t know the actual benefits and I just picked numbers from thin air to illiterate a point. But yea linear extrapolation of such estimates hundreds of years into the future is nonsense.