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OpenAI is valued at ~150 billion. Anthropic is valued at ~60 billion. nvidia was valued at $15/share in 2023 and is now valued at $150/share. It might seem tha

by oidar 2y ago

OpenAI is valued at ~150 billion. Anthropic is valued at ~60 billion. nvidia was valued at $15/share in 2023 and is now valued at $150/share. It might seem that LLMs have sucked all the air out of the room, this is why. If you find LLMs boring, you are in for a very boring couple of decades - because it's not going away.

3vidence 2y ago
I do currently work on ML projects at FAANG. Idk I just always found HN my escape into more interesting topics, now it's just my day job.
shermantanktop 2y ago
I’m not sure…the hype cycle of fads has its own momentum which is somewhat independent of the actual subject. LLMs may not go away but once people realize their thin wrapper scripts won’t result in a 10B valuation, the HN discussion will change.
M2Ys4U 2y ago
And if this doesn't prove that valuations are bullshit, nothing will.
loveparade 2y ago
Crypto market cap is trillions of dollars, and how many crypto posts do you see these days? Not really a strong argument.
jcgrillo 2y ago
Impressive numbers, but have you ever tried to use one of these things to get actual work done? They're terrible at it! Until these companies start demonstrating some actual value this is merely a hype bubble. Nvidia is slightly different categorically because they're selling the picks and shovels in this hype gold rush--but they were also in the last one (web3/crypto/nfts). At some point if these folks don't actually start delivering the value they're hyping it's all coming crashing down.
- sensanaty 2y ago
  The thing is, it's mostly managers and the like getting wow'd by how cool it seems initially, and they're the ones driving the hype. I can ask it in plain English and it answers with flowery language that reads like a professional wrote it, wow! Of course, once you actually try to use it for any real work that isn't a toy project with a trillion examples online, you very quickly run into the myriad of flaws. But they're not using it deeply like that, they're just interested in how they can cut costs or prop up their own product by wow-ing other managers with AI features even if they don't make a lick of sense from an end-user perspective. This isn't even to say it's completely useless, just that the hype and marketing is so insanely divergent from the reality, it's shocking. For me, it's at best a 5% productivity boost for very specific tasks like formatting structured text or something like that, but I wouldn't say that justifies a 500 billion dollar investment...
  - snookeredpoot 2y ago
    Your opinion, like many others, is wildly misinformed. It’s not “just managers”. People are legit using copilot and it is saving time and helping develop better code. There are 100+ engineers in my company using it. And it’s not just copiloting, it is better than Wikipedia for explaining RFCs or academic papers. That is very important for ramping people when they can interactively ask hundreds of questions to learn about something without bothering top engineers. You really need to actually get some real world experience as not just pop off. Anyone who refers to LLMs as “stochastic parrots” has made their choice and is not interested in understand what areas can benefit and what areas cannot. They’re just scared and ignorant.
    - mattmanser 2y ago
      Copilot? I personally found Copilot pretty useless. And very distracting trying to constantly incorrectly guess what I was doing. I do use chatgpt/claude for quickly creating first draftw of frontend pages as I find it quicker, but I have to do extensive edits to get it right. But anything non-boiler plate I am faster writing it myself. I have also quickly found it is a stochastic parrot but that's ok for boilerplate stuff. It is useless at anything complicated and quickly starts hallucinating methods, parameters and functions when you point out problems with the code. I am beginning to believe that anything niche, where it can't steal from its training data, and it will always be utterly useless. I am curious how you feel it's so important to 100+ engineers, how do you use it that makes it effective for you?

by oidar 2y ago

3vidence 2y ago

I do currently work on ML projects at FAANG. Idk I just always found HN my escape into more interesting topics, now it's just my day job.

shermantanktop 2y ago

I’m not sure…the hype cycle of fads has its own momentum which is somewhat independent of the actual subject. LLMs may not go away but once people realize their thin wrapper scripts won’t result in a 10B valuation, the HN discussion will change.

M2Ys4U 2y ago

And if this doesn't prove that valuations are bullshit, nothing will.

loveparade 2y ago

Crypto market cap is trillions of dollars, and how many crypto posts do you see these days? Not really a strong argument.

jcgrillo 2y ago

Impressive numbers, but have you ever tried to use one of these things to get actual work done? They're terrible at it! Until these companies start demonstrating some actual value this is merely a hype bubble. Nvidia is slightly different categorically because they're selling the picks and shovels in this hype gold rush--but they were also in the last one (web3/crypto/nfts). At some point if these folks don't actually start delivering the value they're hyping it's all coming crashing down.

sensanaty 2y ago
The thing is, it's mostly managers and the like getting wow'd by how cool it seems initially, and they're the ones driving the hype. I can ask it in plain English and it answers with flowery language that reads like a professional wrote it, wow! Of course, once you actually try to use it for any real work that isn't a toy project with a trillion examples online, you very quickly run into the myriad of flaws. But they're not using it deeply like that, they're just interested in how they can cut costs or prop up their own product by wow-ing other managers with AI features even if they don't make a lick of sense from an end-user perspective. This isn't even to say it's completely useless, just that the hype and marketing is so insanely divergent from the reality, it's shocking. For me, it's at best a 5% productivity boost for very specific tasks like formatting structured text or something like that, but I wouldn't say that justifies a 500 billion dollar investment...
- snookeredpoot 2y ago
  Your opinion, like many others, is wildly misinformed. It’s not “just managers”. People are legit using copilot and it is saving time and helping develop better code. There are 100+ engineers in my company using it. And it’s not just copiloting, it is better than Wikipedia for explaining RFCs or academic papers. That is very important for ramping people when they can interactively ask hundreds of questions to learn about something without bothering top engineers. You really need to actually get some real world experience as not just pop off. Anyone who refers to LLMs as “stochastic parrots” has made their choice and is not interested in understand what areas can benefit and what areas cannot. They’re just scared and ignorant.
  - mattmanser 2y ago
    Copilot? I personally found Copilot pretty useless. And very distracting trying to constantly incorrectly guess what I was doing. I do use chatgpt/claude for quickly creating first draftw of frontend pages as I find it quicker, but I have to do extensive edits to get it right. But anything non-boiler plate I am faster writing it myself. I have also quickly found it is a stochastic parrot but that's ok for boilerplate stuff. It is useless at anything complicated and quickly starts hallucinating methods, parameters and functions when you point out problems with the code. I am beginning to believe that anything niche, where it can't steal from its training data, and it will always be utterly useless. I am curious how you feel it's so important to 100+ engineers, how do you use it that makes it effective for you?