If you want to get a really good estimate it’s worth considering the odds that either 0 or thousands of people dying in the same event when people are living in

If you want to get a really good estimate it’s worth considering the odds that either 0 or thousands of people dying in the same event when people are living in dense cities etc. Tunguska over London would have had a serious death toll where an airburst in a remote area didn’t. But you’re going to see deaths in an area with a population density of 1 per square km or 100,000/km2.