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Why AI Won't Cause Unemployment

3 points by avonmach 2y ago

mrcode007 2y ago
This is just a well known Baumol’s cost disease… Even the chart is the same? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol_effect
aurareturn 2y ago
>The lines in blue are the sectors where technological innovation is allowed to push down prices while increasing quality. The lines in red are the sectors where technological innovation is not permitted to push down prices; in fact, the prices of education, health care, and housing as well as anything provided or controlled by the government are going to the moon, even as those sectors are technologically stagnant. Or that the blue lines are products that China produces. The red lines are services that the US has to produce domestically.
- MattGaiser 2y ago
  It isn't even that. Food and beverages can be produced by other countries, heavily are, and not strictly regulated. Textbooks can be produced in India and there are many all over the internet. No government regulating the books here either in most cases beyond excluding certain topics. There are armies of people producing excellent tutorials for YouTube on all manner of subjects, so the cost of learning has plummeted. The cost of proving you learned anything has not, but that isn't due to government regulation, but rather nobody accepts a Coursera certificate and most are skeptical of cheap online schools. Indeed, the government is probably the most accepting employer of cheap online universities. This is the market speaking and saying that it doesn't want the alternatives for the reason the students are seeking education. Free market can’t make education cheaper as the real product is trust.
  - aurareturn 2y ago
    >Textbooks can be produced in India and there are many all over the internet. No government regulating the books here either in most cases beyond excluding certain topics. Do US schools buy books written by Indians?
  - weatherlite 2y ago
    > but that isn't due to government regulation, but rather nobody accepts a Coursera certificate and most are skeptical of cheap online schools Can you get a good high paying government job with an online degree? Wouldn't your odds be much lower ? There are enough candidates for every opening, even government jobs. Especially the good ones.
adamredwoods 2y ago
>> We had two such anti-technology jobs moral panics in the last 20 years — “outsourcing” enabled by the Internet in the 2000’s, and “robots” in the 2010’s. The result was the best national and global economy in human history in pre-COVID 2019, with the most jobs at the highest wages ever. Billionaire downplays effects of job displacement/replacement for low-income workers, gee, what else would anyone expect? The internet era created MASSIVE amounts of job and opportunity growth for all levels of workers. AI doesn't offer the same for low-income workers, it's primarily aimed at business OWNERS. There's a big difference. >> Why? The sectors in red are heavily regulated and controlled and bottlenecked by the government and by those industries themselves. OMG, billionaire OVERSIMPLIFIES and complains about regulations in healthcare, which protect people's lives. Why do people fall for this crap? I'm sure unregulated healthcare would cause prices to drop. And quality.

3 points by avonmach 2y ago

This is just a well known Baumol’s cost disease… Even the chart is the same? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol_effect

aurareturn 2y ago

>The lines in blue are the sectors where technological innovation is allowed to push down prices while increasing quality. The lines in red are the sectors where technological innovation is not permitted to push down prices; in fact, the prices of education, health care, and housing as well as anything provided or controlled by the government are going to the moon, even as those sectors are technologically stagnant. Or that the blue lines are products that China produces. The red lines are services that the US has to produce domestically.

MattGaiser 2y ago
It isn't even that. Food and beverages can be produced by other countries, heavily are, and not strictly regulated. Textbooks can be produced in India and there are many all over the internet. No government regulating the books here either in most cases beyond excluding certain topics. There are armies of people producing excellent tutorials for YouTube on all manner of subjects, so the cost of learning has plummeted. The cost of proving you learned anything has not, but that isn't due to government regulation, but rather nobody accepts a Coursera certificate and most are skeptical of cheap online schools. Indeed, the government is probably the most accepting employer of cheap online universities. This is the market speaking and saying that it doesn't want the alternatives for the reason the students are seeking education. Free market can’t make education cheaper as the real product is trust.
- aurareturn 2y ago
  >Textbooks can be produced in India and there are many all over the internet. No government regulating the books here either in most cases beyond excluding certain topics. Do US schools buy books written by Indians?
- weatherlite 2y ago
  > but that isn't due to government regulation, but rather nobody accepts a Coursera certificate and most are skeptical of cheap online schools Can you get a good high paying government job with an online degree? Wouldn't your odds be much lower ? There are enough candidates for every opening, even government jobs. Especially the good ones.

adamredwoods 2y ago

>> We had two such anti-technology jobs moral panics in the last 20 years — “outsourcing” enabled by the Internet in the 2000’s, and “robots” in the 2010’s. The result was the best national and global economy in human history in pre-COVID 2019, with the most jobs at the highest wages ever. Billionaire downplays effects of job displacement/replacement for low-income workers, gee, what else would anyone expect? The internet era created MASSIVE amounts of job and opportunity growth for all levels of workers. AI doesn't offer the same for low-income workers, it's primarily aimed at business OWNERS. There's a big difference. >> Why? The sectors in red are heavily regulated and controlled and bottlenecked by the government and by those industries themselves. OMG, billionaire OVERSIMPLIFIES and complains about regulations in healthcare, which protect people's lives. Why do people fall for this crap? I'm sure unregulated healthcare would cause prices to drop. And quality.