3 ms·
> raw computing power grows by 10^6 every ~25 years Good thing that the number of neurons in our brains are so many orders of magnitude larger than this that i
by yladiz 2y ago
> raw computing power grows by 10^6 every ~25 years
Good thing that the number of neurons in our brains are so many orders of magnitude larger than this that it doesn't matter.
I think what you're getting at is that in the next few years we're going to have AGI, which will eventually cause societal collapse. Under that assumption, while all of the AGI arguments are pretty poor, computing power increases over time is one of the weakest. It's going to take so much more than just computing power to get us close to AGI, it's going to take a lot more than LLMs, and it's possible to poison models with specially created data, so I'm not worried; I don't have shivers. What gives me more shivers is that there are people that seriously believe the hype to the degree that they believe the current technology, just a bit improved, will lead to the end of our current life as we know it.
- cheevly 2y agoLike 80% of the human brain is used for things that AI does not need (digestion, breathing, etc). So I think that automatically disqualifies your stance, but I am open-minded and would like to know what percent of the human brain you think is vital for AI to outperform us.
- EA-3167 2y agoEven if you discount the role of the whole body as an integrated system, signaling and talking to itself, coordinated by the brain... you're still talking about 16 billion neurons in the cortex alone. That may sound like a number we can approach or exceed with modern tech, but neurons are not transistors. Those 16 billion neurons in the cortex form over 140 TRILLION connections through synapes. Those are both computing elements as well as memory. There's no comparison, not even close. As a bonus we don't each require a giant warehouse to house us, we don't require a vast supply of water, nor do we require a personal dedicated power plant.
- sixstringtheory 2y agoYour last paragraph is the perfect rebuttal to GP. Computers don’t exist in a vacuum. They still require mineral and electrical inputs, repair, orchestration… sounds an awful lot like our bodies!
- dutchbookmaker 2y agoWhat also gets left out of this is the wage equilibrium of millions of out of work humans undercutting robots for factory work. It is hardly impossible there are remote white color workers at 30 right now who have to get a 6am-3pm/3pm-11pm/11pm-6am factory job at 50. It is such a miserable thought I think the idea of societal collapse is more comforting.
- Gud 2y agoIt’s always been possible to dream up some plausible doomsday scenarios. I must have watched the movie Terminator 2 more than 50 times. I know the AI apocalypse very well. Don’t worry about it. If the day comes, we’ll figure it out.