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Again, I've been hearing it since 2000s, how China is going to fall. So far, no predictions, especially the forced RE market collapse ones have panned out. I th

Again, I've been hearing it since 2000s, how China is going to fall. So far, no predictions, especially the forced RE market collapse ones have panned out. I think a lot of people want China to fall, so they can point at the political ideology that's not compatible with ours and say "ha, we told you so!". But it just hasn't happened yet. They're smoking the west in a good chunk sectors as well. Also, I think you're underestimating how quickly public perception can turn if the leader becomes disliked. People will flock to be friendly with China, if there's any need.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> I've been hearing it since 2000s, how China is going to fall Where am I predicting failure? Inflexibility doesn't mean failure, it means just that. > underestimating how quickly public perception can turn if the leader becomes disliked. People will flock to be friendly with China, if there's any need Possible. But public perception has nothing to do with it. To date, America has wielded its superpower status in a way that defied containment. If we misbehave, yes, countries will work to contain America, but that doesn't naturally mean they'll work to benefit China. Geostrategically, the best thing that could happen to China is Xi goes away and someone who can softly engage with its neighbours comes in so they can integrate supply chains and cultures more effectively. (Again, the way America has historically done.)
- tokioyoyo 2y ago
  Fair points. I highly doubt anyone is going to softly engage with China while China is trying to become the world leader. My guess is US won't like the loss of soft power, thus will intimidate any country that signs deals with China even further. It's in China's best interest to go full steam ahead without caring about the neighbours until they become the political super power in the world.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > It's in China's best interest to go full steam ahead without caring about the neighbours until they become the political super power in the world This worked, because in the post-Cold War high realpolitik took a break. Unfortunately, now, it will do the same thing every other rising power trying to steamroll its way to superpower status does: inspire balancing alliances. Sort of like how Xi being impatient with Hong Kong not only pushed Taiwan away, it also nudged various nations around the South China Sea together and towards the U.S. To the extent the history of great powers has been written, it's that superpower status cannot be claimed. Simply relinquished. An emerging power trying to steamroll to the top tends to preserve the status quo more than bring about its demise; unfortunately, while waiting for America to next stumble is something an immortal China can wait for, it's not something a mortal dictator can afford. Hence, America's luck. (And again, not forecasting downfall. Just not inevitable rise.)
  - NemoNobody 2y ago
    Really?? 70 years from now that county is going to be an abysmally desperate place to be if the World is upset with China for trying to I don't kno, be a Dragon "one more time" and sets off a cataclysmic war in the process. Now that China, and all of us are aware of what has quite literally already happened, massive population decline would still be incurred even if Gen Z pops out an insane amount - just pretending that all statistical evidence is suggesting the exact opposite likelihood. Again, this is not an opening, this is reality, you can see the math of it - you can understand also if you want to... just look into it all, everyone that writes of from journalists, scientist, population demographers - they are all shocked also. The World Bank projected China to overtake the US economy in 2028, last year revised to 2036 and now there are Economists stating that will never occur. Now is the time to befriend everyone - help everyone you can now, so they all owe favors and hold no animosity to kick when down.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> I've been hearing it since 2000s, how China is going to fall Where am I predicting failure? Inflexibility doesn't mean failure, it means just that. > underestimating how quickly public perception can turn if the leader becomes disliked. People will flock to be friendly with China, if there's any need Possible. But public perception has nothing to do with it. To date, America has wielded its superpower status in a way that defied containment. If we misbehave, yes, countries will work to contain America, but that doesn't naturally mean they'll work to benefit China. Geostrategically, the best thing that could happen to China is Xi goes away and someone who can softly engage with its neighbours comes in so they can integrate supply chains and cultures more effectively. (Again, the way America has historically done.)

tokioyoyo 2y ago
Fair points. I highly doubt anyone is going to softly engage with China while China is trying to become the world leader. My guess is US won't like the loss of soft power, thus will intimidate any country that signs deals with China even further. It's in China's best interest to go full steam ahead without caring about the neighbours until they become the political super power in the world.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > It's in China's best interest to go full steam ahead without caring about the neighbours until they become the political super power in the world This worked, because in the post-Cold War high realpolitik took a break. Unfortunately, now, it will do the same thing every other rising power trying to steamroll its way to superpower status does: inspire balancing alliances. Sort of like how Xi being impatient with Hong Kong not only pushed Taiwan away, it also nudged various nations around the South China Sea together and towards the U.S. To the extent the history of great powers has been written, it's that superpower status cannot be claimed. Simply relinquished. An emerging power trying to steamroll to the top tends to preserve the status quo more than bring about its demise; unfortunately, while waiting for America to next stumble is something an immortal China can wait for, it's not something a mortal dictator can afford. Hence, America's luck. (And again, not forecasting downfall. Just not inevitable rise.)
- NemoNobody 2y ago
  Really?? 70 years from now that county is going to be an abysmally desperate place to be if the World is upset with China for trying to I don't kno, be a Dragon "one more time" and sets off a cataclysmic war in the process. Now that China, and all of us are aware of what has quite literally already happened, massive population decline would still be incurred even if Gen Z pops out an insane amount - just pretending that all statistical evidence is suggesting the exact opposite likelihood. Again, this is not an opening, this is reality, you can see the math of it - you can understand also if you want to... just look into it all, everyone that writes of from journalists, scientist, population demographers - they are all shocked also. The World Bank projected China to overtake the US economy in 2028, last year revised to 2036 and now there are Economists stating that will never occur. Now is the time to befriend everyone - help everyone you can now, so they all owe favors and hold no animosity to kick when down.