3 ms·

> characterised the CCP since Mao there's a conspiracy theory that this was due to Mao having no suitable heirs. More generally, there's a theory that autocrac

> characterised the CCP since Mao there's a conspiracy theory that this was due to Mao having no suitable heirs. More generally, there's a theory that autocracies "liberalize" when there is no clear successor or a succession conflict involving the autocrat, see: martial law Taiwan

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> there's a theory that autocracies "liberalize" when there is no clear successor Isn’t the clearer history one of civil war?
- AnimalMuppet 2y ago
  Liberalization while the autocrat is still alive (if at all). Civil war once he's dead, unless the liberalization has time to take root before the autocrat dies.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    If you have sources for this theory, I'd love to see them. From what I've seen, autocracies in developing countries are "more prone to political instability because oppressed citizenries and displaced groups have no other mechanism to voice dissent other than active mobilization in the streets or subversive activities against the state" [1]. Autocracies are only more stable if they can promote "Rentier-state economic systems," like in North Korea, though that comes at the cost of putting that society further and further behind its international peers. [1] https://www.jstor.org/stable/intesociscierevi.90.1.01 https://www.jstor.org/stable/intesociscierevi.90.1.01
    - AnimalMuppet 2y ago
      No, no sources. I was just saying that, if there was a trend of autocrats trying to liberalize, it was not necessarily inconsistent with a trend of civil war.
quuxplusone 2y ago
Coincidentally, I was just reading this relevant couple of posts when I saw yours: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/what-happens-when-putin-and-khamenei-die https://www.thebulwark.com/p/what-happens-when-putin-and-kha... https://acoup.blog/2021/07/09/fireside-friday-july-9-2021/ https://acoup.blog/2021/07/09/fireside-friday-july-9-2021/ Notice the pre-Ukraine-war dates, especially on the former. Quote from the latter: "The aim of just about every Greek tyrant in the long term was to consolidate power into their family in a durable way, which is to say, convert a tyranny into a kingship. [To a first approximation] they all failed."

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> there's a theory that autocracies "liberalize" when there is no clear successor Isn’t the clearer history one of civil war?

AnimalMuppet 2y ago
Liberalization while the autocrat is still alive (if at all). Civil war once he's dead, unless the liberalization has time to take root before the autocrat dies.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  If you have sources for this theory, I'd love to see them. From what I've seen, autocracies in developing countries are "more prone to political instability because oppressed citizenries and displaced groups have no other mechanism to voice dissent other than active mobilization in the streets or subversive activities against the state" [1]. Autocracies are only more stable if they can promote "Rentier-state economic systems," like in North Korea, though that comes at the cost of putting that society further and further behind its international peers. [1] https://www.jstor.org/stable/intesociscierevi.90.1.01 https://www.jstor.org/stable/intesociscierevi.90.1.01
  - AnimalMuppet 2y ago
    No, no sources. I was just saying that, if there was a trend of autocrats trying to liberalize, it was not necessarily inconsistent with a trend of civil war.

quuxplusone 2y ago

Coincidentally, I was just reading this relevant couple of posts when I saw yours: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/what-happens-when-putin-and-khamenei-die https://www.thebulwark.com/p/what-happens-when-putin-and-kha... https://acoup.blog/2021/07/09/fireside-friday-july-9-2021/ https://acoup.blog/2021/07/09/fireside-friday-july-9-2021/ Notice the pre-Ukraine-war dates, especially on the former. Quote from the latter: "The aim of just about every Greek tyrant in the long term was to consolidate power into their family in a durable way, which is to say, convert a tyranny into a kingship. [To a first approximation] they all failed."