3 ms·

What technological edge do they have exactly? Cheap, unregulated labor practices? A lack of environmental regulations?

taylodl 2y ago
You must have missed what's been happening in China for the past 30 or so years. Their investment in science and engineering in that period has been staggering. It's now paying off. I'm old enough to remember when the same things were being said of Japan and then how quickly that blew up on us. I suspect China is going to dominate the world economy in the 2030s.
- EA-3167 2y ago
  I'm old enough to remember that as well, and now we see where that economic and tech explosion goes when the underlying social and economic structures are inflexible and lacking. I'm too old to get excited or upset every time people decide that a trend line must continue to infinity.
  - taylodl 2y ago
    > I'm too old to get excited or upset every time people decide that a trend line must continue to infinity. Yeah. People talk about the Japan of the 80s, you don't hear so much about the Japan of the 90s - "the lost decade" outside of economic circles. I'm sure China has no interest in repeating that!
    - EA-3167 2y ago
      Exactly, but they're in a much worse position than Japan was. They also have giant property bubbles, but a MUCH worse government, a much worse generational divide, a MUCH worse demographic bomb, and no seeming exit from the "we manufacture things" road onto something more sustainable. Having 1.4 billion people doesn't help either.
verdverm 2y ago
They just set the world record for a fusion reaction, as one example
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> What technological edge do they have exactly? One part environmental regulatory advantages, nine parts economies of scale. The saving grace is America is lucky. We got bailed out of Iraq by Russia being worse. And we’re getting bailed out of our geopolitical and economic ineptitude by Xi becoming a dictator and immediately alienating China’s international partners through “wolf warrior” diplomacy. (Trump is replicating that playbook, but he’s only here for four years, and a lot of his nonsense will get slowed down by our courts, another advantage China lacks.)

You must have missed what's been happening in China for the past 30 or so years. Their investment in science and engineering in that period has been staggering. It's now paying off. I'm old enough to remember when the same things were being said of Japan and then how quickly that blew up on us. I suspect China is going to dominate the world economy in the 2030s.

EA-3167 2y ago
I'm old enough to remember that as well, and now we see where that economic and tech explosion goes when the underlying social and economic structures are inflexible and lacking. I'm too old to get excited or upset every time people decide that a trend line must continue to infinity.
- taylodl 2y ago
  > I'm too old to get excited or upset every time people decide that a trend line must continue to infinity. Yeah. People talk about the Japan of the 80s, you don't hear so much about the Japan of the 90s - "the lost decade" outside of economic circles. I'm sure China has no interest in repeating that!
  - EA-3167 2y ago
    Exactly, but they're in a much worse position than Japan was. They also have giant property bubbles, but a MUCH worse government, a much worse generational divide, a MUCH worse demographic bomb, and no seeming exit from the "we manufacture things" road onto something more sustainable. Having 1.4 billion people doesn't help either.

verdverm 2y ago

They just set the world record for a fusion reaction, as one example

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> What technological edge do they have exactly? One part environmental regulatory advantages, nine parts economies of scale. The saving grace is America is lucky. We got bailed out of Iraq by Russia being worse. And we’re getting bailed out of our geopolitical and economic ineptitude by Xi becoming a dictator and immediately alienating China’s international partners through “wolf warrior” diplomacy. (Trump is replicating that playbook, but he’s only here for four years, and a lot of his nonsense will get slowed down by our courts, another advantage China lacks.)