4 ms·

How much natural gas is there, and how long will it last?

guscost 14y ago
The near future of American energy is natural gas. Are you telling me that somebody knows what's going to happen after that?
- acslater00 14y ago
  Fair enough.
ktizo 14y ago
There are maybe 60 years worth of proven reserves if we don't increase demand, at least according to BP in 2009. If that is end of story for the future of energy, then it is a fairly bleak story.
- brc 14y ago
  All mineral reserves are basically 20-60 years into the future. That's because there is no incentive for a company to go out and find more reserves than it needs. I'm not arguing against you, but using company reserves to predict the future is like using the length of a current employment contract to work out the future of your own employment. If you have a contract for 2 years worth of work, you're not necessarily going to be unemployed in 2 years. There's just no need for you to arrange more work just yet. The same principle is at work with company hydrocarbon reserves. The other curve-ball is changing technology. Many fields that are producing now were considered uneconomic in the past, but improvements in technology change that. All in all, they are a very poor way of judging how much 'stuff' is in the ground. Which is why people, when looking at proven reserves 10, 20, 50 years ago would have concluded that things would have run out by now.
  - ktizo 14y ago
    All mineral reserves are basically 20-60 years into the future. Not true, proven bauxite reserves are in the hundreds of years range. But when it comes to the acceleration of technology argument, I just think that when compared to solar/storage, fossil hydrocarbons will become uneconomic as a fuel source long before they run out.
Danieru 14y ago
Lots. We are just now beginning to unlock vast fields. The USA alone has 200 years worth of domestic supply (cite: parent's economist link, not sure if it includes consumption growth). The good news is that hydrocarbons cannot get much shorter without turning into hydrogen. At some point solar will be too cheap to use anything else. Gas is thus an economical holdout until then so we can avoid a Malthusian future.

The near future of American energy is natural gas. Are you telling me that somebody knows what's going to happen after that?

acslater00 14y ago
Fair enough.

ktizo 14y ago

There are maybe 60 years worth of proven reserves if we don't increase demand, at least according to BP in 2009. If that is end of story for the future of energy, then it is a fairly bleak story.

brc 14y ago
All mineral reserves are basically 20-60 years into the future. That's because there is no incentive for a company to go out and find more reserves than it needs. I'm not arguing against you, but using company reserves to predict the future is like using the length of a current employment contract to work out the future of your own employment. If you have a contract for 2 years worth of work, you're not necessarily going to be unemployed in 2 years. There's just no need for you to arrange more work just yet. The same principle is at work with company hydrocarbon reserves. The other curve-ball is changing technology. Many fields that are producing now were considered uneconomic in the past, but improvements in technology change that. All in all, they are a very poor way of judging how much 'stuff' is in the ground. Which is why people, when looking at proven reserves 10, 20, 50 years ago would have concluded that things would have run out by now.
- ktizo 14y ago
  All mineral reserves are basically 20-60 years into the future. Not true, proven bauxite reserves are in the hundreds of years range. But when it comes to the acceleration of technology argument, I just think that when compared to solar/storage, fossil hydrocarbons will become uneconomic as a fuel source long before they run out.

Danieru 14y ago

Lots. We are just now beginning to unlock vast fields. The USA alone has 200 years worth of domestic supply (cite: parent's economist link, not sure if it includes consumption growth). The good news is that hydrocarbons cannot get much shorter without turning into hydrogen. At some point solar will be too cheap to use anything else. Gas is thus an economical holdout until then so we can avoid a Malthusian future.