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China Will Field a Sixth Generation Fighter Before America Can

2 points by HR01 2y ago

hunglee2 2y ago
Doesn't really matter - there may actually be second mover advantage in warfare, unless the innovation is overwhelmingly decisive (no '6th' generation plane is that, simply doesn't have the payload). Greater concern is procurement costs - US spends far more, gets a little less and this seems to be getting worse. DOGE needs to investigate here, more than anywhere
grajaganDev 2y ago
I fail to see what role fighter aircraft play in 2025. Do we just keep building them out of habit?
- LinuxBender 2y ago
  I fail to see what role fighter aircraft play in 2025. Same. Drones can outmaneuver piloted aircraft and should be a bigger focus in my opinion. Drones can take a close up look inside the adversaries engine intake for fun and profit. $250K drone taking out a $80M fighter whilst transmitting Ride of the Valkyries on all frequencies (modern day Stuka siren). Do we just keep building them out of habit? Just a guess, it could be that for some use cases drones can not yet be trusted to not be taken over such as delivering tactical nuclear weapons. Several platforms are capable of delivering tactical nukes. Probably also some corruption regarding guaranteed contracts and kick-backs. Also just guessing.
deleted 2y ago
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maxglute 2y ago
>China could comfortably win the sixth generation race, particularly in terms of the speed at which it could bring aircraft into service ... >NGAD fighter was confirmed in 2022 not to have entered this phase indicated it may not enter service until the latter half of the 2030s Really understating it. If J36 follows J20 LRIP, PRC will have them in service by 2030 and 100s by 2035. >hopes in the United States that use of advanced digital assembly and testing technologies was expected to significantly accelerate NGAD’s development and reduce costs, the value of these technologies was conceded by Secretary Kendall to have been “over-hyped.” Hilariously J36 designer insinuated PRC is basically going to be doing this + essentially Digital Century Series of rapid iteration -> turn high end weapons platform procurement into smart phones. We already see PRC EV bringing design to production timeline from 5 years to 18 months. Which puts them in position to respond to relevant US NGAD developments. US needs to learn to design + build fast.
- hindsightbias 2y ago
  NGAD is irrelevant to a conflict over Taiwan. The fighter mafia isn’t going there.
  - maxglute 2y ago
    NGAD based out of 1IC was suppose to be the TW air dominance hail mary.

2 points by HR01 2y ago

Doesn't really matter - there may actually be second mover advantage in warfare, unless the innovation is overwhelmingly decisive (no '6th' generation plane is that, simply doesn't have the payload). Greater concern is procurement costs - US spends far more, gets a little less and this seems to be getting worse. DOGE needs to investigate here, more than anywhere

grajaganDev 2y ago

I fail to see what role fighter aircraft play in 2025. Do we just keep building them out of habit?

LinuxBender 2y ago
I fail to see what role fighter aircraft play in 2025. Same. Drones can outmaneuver piloted aircraft and should be a bigger focus in my opinion. Drones can take a close up look inside the adversaries engine intake for fun and profit. $250K drone taking out a $80M fighter whilst transmitting Ride of the Valkyries on all frequencies (modern day Stuka siren). Do we just keep building them out of habit? Just a guess, it could be that for some use cases drones can not yet be trusted to not be taken over such as delivering tactical nuclear weapons. Several platforms are capable of delivering tactical nukes. Probably also some corruption regarding guaranteed contracts and kick-backs. Also just guessing.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

maxglute 2y ago

>China could comfortably win the sixth generation race, particularly in terms of the speed at which it could bring aircraft into service ... >NGAD fighter was confirmed in 2022 not to have entered this phase indicated it may not enter service until the latter half of the 2030s Really understating it. If J36 follows J20 LRIP, PRC will have them in service by 2030 and 100s by 2035. >hopes in the United States that use of advanced digital assembly and testing technologies was expected to significantly accelerate NGAD’s development and reduce costs, the value of these technologies was conceded by Secretary Kendall to have been “over-hyped.” Hilariously J36 designer insinuated PRC is basically going to be doing this + essentially Digital Century Series of rapid iteration -> turn high end weapons platform procurement into smart phones. We already see PRC EV bringing design to production timeline from 5 years to 18 months. Which puts them in position to respond to relevant US NGAD developments. US needs to learn to design + build fast.

hindsightbias 2y ago
NGAD is irrelevant to a conflict over Taiwan. The fighter mafia isn’t going there.
- maxglute 2y ago
  NGAD based out of 1IC was suppose to be the TW air dominance hail mary.