I think it will fail, simply because they are asking the wrong question. The answer to Twitter isn't a company that controls a messaging bus (which is what the

I think it will fail, simply because they are asking the wrong question. The answer to Twitter isn't a company that controls a messaging bus (which is what the proposal is looking like). The answer is a federated protocol that will let multiple servers talk to each other. For an email analogy, they are creating a POP protocol, when they should be creating SMTP. That way you would have multiple clients vying for supremacy, but each able to communicate with each other. This would help drive users, since each service could have different features. But unfortunately, it's a bit hard to build a company around a protocol.