2 ms·

yep. the 55% is over a few years.

• kortilla 2y ago
  Right, but if 55% is avg over the last few years, “buy stock” is going to be correct more than not. https://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Yo-Yo.pdf https://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Yo-Yo.pdf
  • Etheryte 2y ago
    I think this is a good highlight of why context and reality checks are incredibly important when doing work like this. At first glance, it might look like 55% is a really good result, but in the previous year, a flat buy every day strategy would've been right 56.7% of the time.
    • dutchbookmaker 2y ago
      55% means basically nothing in this context if even money. Long 45% to 55% is most likely completely random because it is symmetric with shorting 45% to 55% Exactly what you would expect from a language model making random stock picks.