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Have you backtested this in times when markets were not constantly green? Nearly any strategy is good in the good times.
by Etheryte 2y ago
Have you backtested this in times when markets were not constantly green? Nearly any strategy is good in the good times.
- spiritplumber 2y agoyep. the 55% is over a few years.
- kortilla 2y agoRight, but if 55% is avg over the last few years, “buy stock” is going to be correct more than not. https://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Yo-Yo.pdf https://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Yo-Yo.pdf
- Etheryte 2y agoI think this is a good highlight of why context and reality checks are incredibly important when doing work like this. At first glance, it might look like 55% is a really good result, but in the previous year, a flat buy every day strategy would've been right 56.7% of the time.
- dutchbookmaker 2y ago55% means basically nothing in this context if even money. Long 45% to 55% is most likely completely random because it is symmetric with shorting 45% to 55% Exactly what you would expect from a language model making random stock picks.