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My husband and me made a stock market analysis thing that gets it right about 55% of the time, so better than a coin toss. The problem is that it keeps making u
by spiritplumber 2y ago
My husband and me made a stock market analysis thing that gets it right about 55% of the time, so better than a coin toss. The problem is that it keeps making unethical suggestions, so we're not using it to trade stock. Does anyone have any idea what we can do with that?
- bobbygoodlatte 2y agoI'm curious what sort of unethical suggestions it's coming up with haha
- spiritplumber 2y agoso far, mostly buying companies owned/ran by horrible people.
- Etheryte 2y agoHave you backtested this in times when markets were not constantly green? Nearly any strategy is good in the good times.
- spiritplumber 2y agoyep. the 55% is over a few years.
- kortilla 2y agoRight, but if 55% is avg over the last few years, “buy stock” is going to be correct more than not. https://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Yo-Yo.pdf https://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Yo-Yo.pdf
- Etheryte 2y agoI think this is a good highlight of why context and reality checks are incredibly important when doing work like this. At first glance, it might look like 55% is a really good result, but in the previous year, a flat buy every day strategy would've been right 56.7% of the time.
- dutchbookmaker 2y ago55% means basically nothing in this context if even money. Long 45% to 55% is most likely completely random because it is symmetric with shorting 45% to 55% Exactly what you would expect from a language model making random stock picks.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- dkga 2y agoSuggestion: calculate the out-of-sample Sharpe ratio[0] of the suggestions over a reasonable period to gauge how good the model would actually perform in terms of return compared to risks. It is better than vanilla accuracy or related metrics. Source: I'm a financial economist. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpe_ratio https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpe_ratio
- spiritplumber 2y agothank you! that's exactly the sort of thing I don't know.
- bongodongobob 2y agoYou can literally flip coins and get better than 50% success in a bull market. Just buy index funds and spend your time on something that isn't trying to beat entropy. You won't be able to.
- spiritplumber 2y agoINSUFFICIENT DATA FOR A MEANINGFUL ANSWER.
- febed 2y agoWhat data do you analyze?