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> 3) Possible career pivot - there will be opportunities. Some parts of the labour market are starving for employees and I don't mean just the trades - there's

by piva00 2y ago

> 3) Possible career pivot - there will be opportunities. Some parts of the labour market are starving for employees and I don't mean just the trades - there's a constant need for nurses, teachers, care etc. The problem is these jobs are notorious for burning their workers out; I don't have a solution for that. These jobs are also not scalable and not directly profitable, they require money from other sources to even exist at a large scale. In this potential AI-dominated world where there is less money being earned by individuals, consequently less taxes being paid, who exactly is going to be paying for nurses, teachers, care, etc.?

weatherlite 2y ago
Good question. My hunch is most functioning governments will step in and create these jobs - because they are badly needed. .Even now at least half of economic activity is government created in many developed countries - so it will be more like 80%. But I have no crystal ball, I'm just speculating.
- piva00 2y ago
  For that to happen we would need a paradigm shift on the main ideology behind most functioning governments: neoliberalism. It's not in the current sociopolitical/economical zeitgeist for governments to step in and create jobs, since the 80s we've moved towards privatisation, even very socially oriented governments like Western/Northern Europe are in it. To undo this flow into the other direction will take another generation or two of people under a new ideology voting for it. We've been fed neoliberal policies for way too long, the contemporary Western world has been molded in it, I don't believe such a huge shift will happen fast enough if AI does actually develop that fast to replace jobs. We will live through a limbo of pain until newer generations fight against it, usually that only happens when our collective pain is way above the uncomfortable threshold. > Even now at least half of economic activity is government created in many developed countries I wasn't aware of this fact, where could I find statistics about it (if you have sources easily, if not I can do my own research).
  - weatherlite 2y ago
    As far as I know its called government expenditure as share of gdp https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/exp@FPP/USA/FRA/JPN/GBR/SWE/ESP/ITA/ZAF/IND https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/exp@FPP/USA/FRA/JPN/... Look at countries like France, quite crazy.

by piva00 2y ago

weatherlite 2y ago

Good question. My hunch is most functioning governments will step in and create these jobs - because they are badly needed. .Even now at least half of economic activity is government created in many developed countries - so it will be more like 80%. But I have no crystal ball, I'm just speculating.

piva00 2y ago
For that to happen we would need a paradigm shift on the main ideology behind most functioning governments: neoliberalism. It's not in the current sociopolitical/economical zeitgeist for governments to step in and create jobs, since the 80s we've moved towards privatisation, even very socially oriented governments like Western/Northern Europe are in it. To undo this flow into the other direction will take another generation or two of people under a new ideology voting for it. We've been fed neoliberal policies for way too long, the contemporary Western world has been molded in it, I don't believe such a huge shift will happen fast enough if AI does actually develop that fast to replace jobs. We will live through a limbo of pain until newer generations fight against it, usually that only happens when our collective pain is way above the uncomfortable threshold. > Even now at least half of economic activity is government created in many developed countries I wasn't aware of this fact, where could I find statistics about it (if you have sources easily, if not I can do my own research).
- weatherlite 2y ago
  As far as I know its called government expenditure as share of gdp https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/exp@FPP/USA/FRA/JPN/GBR/SWE/ESP/ITA/ZAF/IND https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/exp@FPP/USA/FRA/JPN/... Look at countries like France, quite crazy.