5 ms·

2025 Daily Surface Air Temperature Looking Bad

_dark_matter_ 2y ago
Haven't you heard? The new president will fix this too! No more of these suspicious graphs! In all seriousness, wish there was more happening to fix this.
- jiggawatts 2y ago
  He's got a whole box of Sharpies.
  - defrost 2y ago
    and, by the Commutative Law of Relatives he's at least as much of a stable genius as his uncle who was a great professor for, I believe, 40 years at MIT.
- nojvek 2y ago
  I feel really bad for kids. If every year the temperatures are breaking records, that's not a pretty world to live in.
Hammershaft 2y ago
The last two years of climate data from sources all over the world has been completely out of distribution. Recently scientists have struggled to understand it because it's worse than the worst predicted trendlines in their models.
- rUsHeYaFuBu 2y ago
  I'm far from an expert. However I wonder if this is partially tied to under estimates in methane leaks in natural gas delivery and CO2 connected to concrete construction
  - emchammer 2y ago
    I am not an expert either. However I cannot imagine that those sources come close to the volume of methane leaked from clathrates. Hammershaft's comment is disturbing to me, as that is how the lines in the graph appear to me as well.
    - rUsHeYaFuBu 2y ago
      What about LNG? https://thelensnola.org/2023/07/31/lng-export-terminals-belching-more-pollution-than-estimated/ https://thelensnola.org/2023/07/31/lng-export-terminals-belc...
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    I believe it is positive feedback loop tipping points being reached (thawing permafrost, for example), which is accelerating change beyond was was previously modeled. https://salatainstitute.harvard.edu/thawing-permafrost-what-does-it-mean-and-what-can-be-done/ https://salatainstitute.harvard.edu/thawing-permafrost-what-... https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=thawing+permafrost&sort=byDate&type=story https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...
    - toomuchtodo 2y ago
      Additional citation: A third of the Arctic’s vast carbon sink now a source of emissions, study reveals - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/21/third-of-arctic-carbon-sink-now-a-source-of-emissions-study https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/21/third-of... Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic–boreal CO2 uptake - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02234-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02234-5
  - trescenzi 2y ago
    There was also the thing about low sulfur shipping causing a spike in temps? No idea if that’s potentially related or not.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
romaaeterna 2y ago
Long term warming trend. We might get up to the previous peak at the beginning of the Late Pleistocene 125,000 years ago before it's all over.
- defrost 2y ago
  Short term (within a century) warming trend directly caused by additional atmospheric insulation (CO2) added by human activity. We've already reached and are now starting to exceed: The global average temperature during the Last Interglacial period, which peaked around 125,000 years ago, was about 0.5–1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels.
  - romaaeterna 2y ago
    The proxies we have for ancient periods don't allow us to state very much about what rates of warming looked like on a short-term scale. It's hard to rule out that it might not have been very much like today. And the CO2-driving argument is predicated on null-warming in the 1800s, which is hard to establish (actually counter-indicated).
    - defrost 2y ago
      > And the CO2-driving argument is predicated on null-warming in the 1800s It's predicated on thermodynamics, heat equations, and the fact that CO2 is an insulator and that CO2 in the atmosphere has measurably increased as a direct result of fossil fuel extraction. eg: Manabe, Wetherald 1967. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/24/3/1520-0469_1967_024_0241_teotaw_2_0_co_2.xml https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/24/3/1520-04...
      - romaaeterna 2y ago
        Throughout the vast majority of geological history, CO2 has been a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator, of global temperature. CO2 was 1600ppm back in the Eocene. High CO2 was caused by the high temperature, not the other way around. Thermodynamics and heat equations and so on all worked the same way in the Eocene as they do today, and nobody was extracting fossil fuels.
chickentoes99 2y ago
[flagged]
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
jemmyw 2y ago
It looks like the northern hemisphere is the outlier and southern, tropics, artic and antarctic are, well not cold (relatively), but not over the long term trend.

Haven't you heard? The new president will fix this too! No more of these suspicious graphs! In all seriousness, wish there was more happening to fix this.

jiggawatts 2y ago
He's got a whole box of Sharpies.
- defrost 2y ago
  and, by the Commutative Law of Relatives he's at least as much of a stable genius as his uncle who was a great professor for, I believe, 40 years at MIT.
nojvek 2y ago
I feel really bad for kids. If every year the temperatures are breaking records, that's not a pretty world to live in.

Hammershaft 2y ago

The last two years of climate data from sources all over the world has been completely out of distribution. Recently scientists have struggled to understand it because it's worse than the worst predicted trendlines in their models.

rUsHeYaFuBu 2y ago
I'm far from an expert. However I wonder if this is partially tied to under estimates in methane leaks in natural gas delivery and CO2 connected to concrete construction
- emchammer 2y ago
  I am not an expert either. However I cannot imagine that those sources come close to the volume of methane leaked from clathrates. Hammershaft's comment is disturbing to me, as that is how the lines in the graph appear to me as well.
  - rUsHeYaFuBu 2y ago
    What about LNG? https://thelensnola.org/2023/07/31/lng-export-terminals-belching-more-pollution-than-estimated/ https://thelensnola.org/2023/07/31/lng-export-terminals-belc...
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  I believe it is positive feedback loop tipping points being reached (thawing permafrost, for example), which is accelerating change beyond was was previously modeled. https://salatainstitute.harvard.edu/thawing-permafrost-what-does-it-mean-and-what-can-be-done/ https://salatainstitute.harvard.edu/thawing-permafrost-what-... https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=thawing+permafrost&sort=byDate&type=story https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    Additional citation: A third of the Arctic’s vast carbon sink now a source of emissions, study reveals - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/21/third-of-arctic-carbon-sink-now-a-source-of-emissions-study https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/21/third-of... Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic–boreal CO2 uptake - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02234-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02234-5
- trescenzi 2y ago
  There was also the thing about low sulfur shipping causing a spike in temps? No idea if that’s potentially related or not.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

romaaeterna 2y ago

Long term warming trend. We might get up to the previous peak at the beginning of the Late Pleistocene 125,000 years ago before it's all over.

defrost 2y ago
Short term (within a century) warming trend directly caused by additional atmospheric insulation (CO2) added by human activity. We've already reached and are now starting to exceed: The global average temperature during the Last Interglacial period, which peaked around 125,000 years ago, was about 0.5–1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels.
- romaaeterna 2y ago
  The proxies we have for ancient periods don't allow us to state very much about what rates of warming looked like on a short-term scale. It's hard to rule out that it might not have been very much like today. And the CO2-driving argument is predicated on null-warming in the 1800s, which is hard to establish (actually counter-indicated).
  - defrost 2y ago
    > And the CO2-driving argument is predicated on null-warming in the 1800s It's predicated on thermodynamics, heat equations, and the fact that CO2 is an insulator and that CO2 in the atmosphere has measurably increased as a direct result of fossil fuel extraction. eg: Manabe, Wetherald 1967. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/24/3/1520-0469_1967_024_0241_teotaw_2_0_co_2.xml https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/24/3/1520-04...
    - romaaeterna 2y ago
      Throughout the vast majority of geological history, CO2 has been a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator, of global temperature. CO2 was 1600ppm back in the Eocene. High CO2 was caused by the high temperature, not the other way around. Thermodynamics and heat equations and so on all worked the same way in the Eocene as they do today, and nobody was extracting fossil fuels.

chickentoes99 2y ago

[flagged]

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

jemmyw 2y ago

It looks like the northern hemisphere is the outlier and southern, tropics, artic and antarctic are, well not cold (relatively), but not over the long term trend.