4 ms·

Or until the US invades Greenland, and will be barred by the EU of ever using ASML machines again ;-)

by belter 2y ago

aurareturn 2y ago
Pretty sure the reason ASML has to comply is because they rely on American suppliers. Without those American suppliers, they wouldn't be able to build their machines.
- microtonal 2y ago
  Or, I don't know? The Netherlands considers the US an ally and if the US asks it, we (sometimes begrudgingly) do it? Which circles back to the current problem in the White House. Allies don't work on transactionalism and threats. They work using a lot of silent diplomacy and the understanding that you sometimes sacrifice a bit for an ally. Everybody gets some wins.
  - aurareturn 2y ago
    It’s all about leverage. What leverage does the US have on ASML?
usrnm 2y ago
The US already threatened to invade the Netherlands not so long ago, worked like a charm. I'm pretty sure your scenario would be resolved just as easily
- postepowanieadm 2y ago
  Netherlands(ASML) or Denmark(Greenland/Ozempic)?
  - peterpost2 2y ago
    I think he might be thinking about the following repulsive law: https://nl.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Service-Members%27_Protection_Act https://nl.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Service-Members%27_...
- belter 2y ago
  Your forgot about the ASML Machines remote disable. The SEAL Team 6 better deploy already to a location around Amsterdam.... "ASML can remotely disable chip machines if China invades Taiwan" - https://nltimes.nl/2024/05/21/asml-can-remotely-disable-chip-machines-china-invades-taiwan-report https://nltimes.nl/2024/05/21/asml-can-remotely-disable-chip...
  - sylware 2y ago
    I heard about total destruction, but not from ASML, from taiwan authorities.
- corimaith 2y ago
  The US isn't even willing to send troops to deal with the Houthis and now you're treating an invasion of the Netherlands as credible? Maybe you should cool it with the propaganda here.
  - krisoft 2y ago
    > and now you're treating an invasion of the Netherlands as credible? It is as credible as it gets. The explicit threat is in the American Service-Members' Protection Act and it was signed into law by President George W. Bush on August 2, 2002. Which part of this do you feel is propaganda?
    - corimaith 2y ago
      >It is as credible as it gets. It's as uncredible as it gets the moment you spend more than 1 minute thinking about it. Let's play this logically through. In order to coerce the Netherlands to align with ASML Export Controls (With the assumption they do not already align with such policy), the US (Who exactly in the US, the famously No-New-Wars Donald Trump, or an isolationist Congress) is going to the invoke the Hague Invasion Act, to "free" nonexistent American officials that are held up by nonexistent criminal convictions by the Hague? And this will somehow coerce the Netherlands despite being completely unrelated to ASML which is located 137 KM away in Veldhoven? Even the gritty details, how exactly is this "invasion" of yours going to work? You are going to send a battallion of Marines to attack the Hague, or are you going to Veldhoven 137 KM away to occupy ASML Factories or capture the ASML CEO? Which of the two? All the while provoking a kinetic war with a technologically-peer nation? Even if you do manage to do it, what then? Your supply lines are completely cut, enemy troops are moving in with greater firepower and numbers. Or are you assuming some kind of national invasion where the US Military is going to direct a CSG to attack the Dutch then some sort of occupation, likely within wider war against Europe which likely lead to quagmire of massive American casualties, all for the sake of "coercing" ASML not to export to China? And American people, US Congress, political rivals and the Democrats will just stand by instead of likely removing the incumbent? The nonalignment is dubious. The motivation within individuals is non-credible. The mechanism does not exist. The invasion is highly improbable and self-defeating. The very fact that you label this as "as credible as it gets" should tell anyone that you and OP are either extremely uninformed, or being intellectually dishonest with an agenda to divide.
dragonelite 2y ago
The lithographic light source is US ip being created on US shores. If they do that it will be the last EUV machine ASML will make in the EU. Hell i would bet ASML will move to US than stay in EU, if the US says move to the US and we will allow you to do business with China again. Also it looks like China has multiple EUV tracks on going from SSMB to that tin based EUV that ASML works with.
- belter 2y ago
  The lithographic light source used in ASML EUV lithography systems is based on intellectual property developed by Cymer, a company that....drum roll...ASML acquired in 2013.
  - kube-system 2y ago
    If we're talking about the above hypothetical trade embargo, it wouldn't really matter. Ownership doesn't override trade restrictions.
  - dragonelite 2y ago
    You think Cymer will stay ASML property when the US can just do a National security ruling... Queue in the "First time" meme with China and Netherlands.
    - impossiblefork 2y ago
      It's not like AMSL couldn't build other light sources. There's a lot of particle accelerator research in Europe, for example. But presumably there is a partnership, so that the Netherlands accomodates the US and the US accommodates the Netherlands, so that nobody is unhappy, with this working well enough that no one has felt the need to do switch.

Or until the US invades Greenland, and will be barred by the EU of ever using ASML machines again ;-)

by belter 2y ago

Or until the US invades Greenland, and will be barred by the EU of ever using ASML machines again ;-)

Pretty sure the reason ASML has to comply is because they rely on American suppliers. Without those American suppliers, they wouldn't be able to build their machines.

microtonal 2y ago
Or, I don't know? The Netherlands considers the US an ally and if the US asks it, we (sometimes begrudgingly) do it? Which circles back to the current problem in the White House. Allies don't work on transactionalism and threats. They work using a lot of silent diplomacy and the understanding that you sometimes sacrifice a bit for an ally. Everybody gets some wins.
- aurareturn 2y ago
  It’s all about leverage. What leverage does the US have on ASML?

usrnm 2y ago

The US already threatened to invade the Netherlands not so long ago, worked like a charm. I'm pretty sure your scenario would be resolved just as easily

postepowanieadm 2y ago
Netherlands(ASML) or Denmark(Greenland/Ozempic)?
- peterpost2 2y ago
  I think he might be thinking about the following repulsive law: https://nl.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Service-Members%27_Protection_Act https://nl.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Service-Members%27_...
belter 2y ago
Your forgot about the ASML Machines remote disable. The SEAL Team 6 better deploy already to a location around Amsterdam.... "ASML can remotely disable chip machines if China invades Taiwan" - https://nltimes.nl/2024/05/21/asml-can-remotely-disable-chip-machines-china-invades-taiwan-report https://nltimes.nl/2024/05/21/asml-can-remotely-disable-chip...
- sylware 2y ago
  I heard about total destruction, but not from ASML, from taiwan authorities.
corimaith 2y ago
The US isn't even willing to send troops to deal with the Houthis and now you're treating an invasion of the Netherlands as credible? Maybe you should cool it with the propaganda here.
- krisoft 2y ago
  > and now you're treating an invasion of the Netherlands as credible? It is as credible as it gets. The explicit threat is in the American Service-Members' Protection Act and it was signed into law by President George W. Bush on August 2, 2002. Which part of this do you feel is propaganda?
  - corimaith 2y ago
    >It is as credible as it gets. It's as uncredible as it gets the moment you spend more than 1 minute thinking about it. Let's play this logically through. In order to coerce the Netherlands to align with ASML Export Controls (With the assumption they do not already align with such policy), the US (Who exactly in the US, the famously No-New-Wars Donald Trump, or an isolationist Congress) is going to the invoke the Hague Invasion Act, to "free" nonexistent American officials that are held up by nonexistent criminal convictions by the Hague? And this will somehow coerce the Netherlands despite being completely unrelated to ASML which is located 137 KM away in Veldhoven? Even the gritty details, how exactly is this "invasion" of yours going to work? You are going to send a battallion of Marines to attack the Hague, or are you going to Veldhoven 137 KM away to occupy ASML Factories or capture the ASML CEO? Which of the two? All the while provoking a kinetic war with a technologically-peer nation? Even if you do manage to do it, what then? Your supply lines are completely cut, enemy troops are moving in with greater firepower and numbers. Or are you assuming some kind of national invasion where the US Military is going to direct a CSG to attack the Dutch then some sort of occupation, likely within wider war against Europe which likely lead to quagmire of massive American casualties, all for the sake of "coercing" ASML not to export to China? And American people, US Congress, political rivals and the Democrats will just stand by instead of likely removing the incumbent? The nonalignment is dubious. The motivation within individuals is non-credible. The mechanism does not exist. The invasion is highly improbable and self-defeating. The very fact that you label this as "as credible as it gets" should tell anyone that you and OP are either extremely uninformed, or being intellectually dishonest with an agenda to divide.

dragonelite 2y ago

The lithographic light source is US ip being created on US shores. If they do that it will be the last EUV machine ASML will make in the EU. Hell i would bet ASML will move to US than stay in EU, if the US says move to the US and we will allow you to do business with China again. Also it looks like China has multiple EUV tracks on going from SSMB to that tin based EUV that ASML works with.

belter 2y ago
The lithographic light source used in ASML EUV lithography systems is based on intellectual property developed by Cymer, a company that....drum roll...ASML acquired in 2013.
- kube-system 2y ago
  If we're talking about the above hypothetical trade embargo, it wouldn't really matter. Ownership doesn't override trade restrictions.
- dragonelite 2y ago
  You think Cymer will stay ASML property when the US can just do a National security ruling... Queue in the "First time" meme with China and Netherlands.
  - impossiblefork 2y ago
    It's not like AMSL couldn't build other light sources. There's a lot of particle accelerator research in Europe, for example. But presumably there is a partnership, so that the Netherlands accomodates the US and the US accommodates the Netherlands, so that nobody is unhappy, with this working well enough that no one has felt the need to do switch.