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The problem is that people think property is a risk free way of making money - even if they borrow heavily to invest. Maybe what we need is a property price cra

The problem is that people think property is a risk free way of making money - even if they borrow heavily to invest. Maybe what we need is a property price crash.

ben_w 2y ago
I'm not sure a property price crash would achieve this goal. You will have to decide for yourself if I'm speaking from experience or have motivated reasoning, as I'm saying this as an overseas absentee landlord who bought a UK apartment around the tail end of the previous price crash, initially as a place to live in until I decided the UK wasn't for me any more, and was rich enough to do so without a mortgage. (I left the UK in 2018 due to a mix of Brexit and technological incompetence in the form of the Investigatory Powers Act. Would have left UK sooner but for parent with Alzheimer's). Reason being: the income from housing doesn't have to come from reselling houses (which a price crash would impact) — I'm collecting rent, not flipping property. Forecasts future increases to rental rates suggests it won't keep getting worse (relative to general inflation) than it already is for renters, but it's already obviously quite bad.
- dash2 2y ago
  I feel deeply sad having to ask this, but... how did you manage to leave?
  - ben_w 2y ago
    In 2018 the UK had not officially completed the process of leaving, so I found a spare room in Berlin, got on a plane and flew, did the initial paperwork for registering with the various things that need to be registered in Germany, and went job hunting. Just before the actual cut-off date for customs controls, I had the stuff that had been in storage (loft of family house) shipped over.
hardlianotion 2y ago
In the UK it more or less is a risk free way to make money. The government's hand is always seen when a danger to the property market prices hoves into sight.
pjc50 2y ago
Nearest we came was ... 2008, with all that implies. I don't think we can have a property price crash until the population starts net-declining.
rjsw 2y ago
We could start applying capital gains tax to a primary residence.
constantcrying 2y ago
>Maybe what we need is a property price crash. What is needed is a steady decrease in demand or an increase in supply. The cost of living crisis is directly caused by the huge bureaucracy needed to build new housing. And speculators are benefiting from that. As long as governments are unwilling to let go of regulations housing costs will only increase.
- brewdad 2y ago
  There is no appetite for increasing supply anywhere in the West. Maybe Trump will get us into WWIII and we can shift the demand curve.
  - constantcrying 2y ago
    >There is no appetite for increasing supply anywhere in the West. Every single person who currently is looking to rent or buy a house has appetite for increasing market supply.
    - vkou 2y ago
      None of those people have enough political power.
      - constantcrying 2y ago
        In Germany it is somewhere around 55% of the population.
        vkou 2y ago
        In the US, it's a lot less than that.
        jonp888 2y ago
        In Germany lifelong renting is seen as a normal and acceptable thing to do, not a temporary stepping stone which will hinder you from achieving your life goals.

The problem is that people think property is a risk free way of making money - even if they borrow heavily to invest. Maybe what we need is a property price crash.

ben_w 2y ago

I'm not sure a property price crash would achieve this goal. You will have to decide for yourself if I'm speaking from experience or have motivated reasoning, as I'm saying this as an overseas absentee landlord who bought a UK apartment around the tail end of the previous price crash, initially as a place to live in until I decided the UK wasn't for me any more, and was rich enough to do so without a mortgage. (I left the UK in 2018 due to a mix of Brexit and technological incompetence in the form of the Investigatory Powers Act. Would have left UK sooner but for parent with Alzheimer's). Reason being: the income from housing doesn't have to come from reselling houses (which a price crash would impact) — I'm collecting rent, not flipping property. Forecasts future increases to rental rates suggests it won't keep getting worse (relative to general inflation) than it already is for renters, but it's already obviously quite bad.

dash2 2y ago
I feel deeply sad having to ask this, but... how did you manage to leave?
- ben_w 2y ago
  In 2018 the UK had not officially completed the process of leaving, so I found a spare room in Berlin, got on a plane and flew, did the initial paperwork for registering with the various things that need to be registered in Germany, and went job hunting. Just before the actual cut-off date for customs controls, I had the stuff that had been in storage (loft of family house) shipped over.

hardlianotion 2y ago

In the UK it more or less is a risk free way to make money. The government's hand is always seen when a danger to the property market prices hoves into sight.

pjc50 2y ago

Nearest we came was ... 2008, with all that implies. I don't think we can have a property price crash until the population starts net-declining.

rjsw 2y ago

We could start applying capital gains tax to a primary residence.

constantcrying 2y ago

>Maybe what we need is a property price crash. What is needed is a steady decrease in demand or an increase in supply. The cost of living crisis is directly caused by the huge bureaucracy needed to build new housing. And speculators are benefiting from that. As long as governments are unwilling to let go of regulations housing costs will only increase.

brewdad 2y ago
There is no appetite for increasing supply anywhere in the West. Maybe Trump will get us into WWIII and we can shift the demand curve.
- constantcrying 2y ago
  >There is no appetite for increasing supply anywhere in the West. Every single person who currently is looking to rent or buy a house has appetite for increasing market supply.
  - vkou 2y ago
    None of those people have enough political power.
    - constantcrying 2y ago
      In Germany it is somewhere around 55% of the population.
      - vkou 2y ago
        In the US, it's a lot less than that.
      - jonp888 2y ago
        In Germany lifelong renting is seen as a normal and acceptable thing to do, not a temporary stepping stone which will hinder you from achieving your life goals.