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Wasn't there an article posted here about this very same issue with penalty kicks in soccer? Well, I'm not sure that I read it here, but I did read it somewhere

Wasn't there an article posted here about this very same issue with penalty kicks in soccer? Well, I'm not sure that I read it here, but I did read it somewhere: Someone did a mathematical analysis and determined that goalies should stand in the center a lot more often than they do when defending against a penalty kick. The issue is that they have to make their decision which way they are going to move before they have enough information on which way is the right way. If they wait until they actually have enough information for the decision, then it is already too late. Their choices are to jump to the left, jump to the right, or stay put. Unless soccer penalty kickers are biased about which choice they make in kicking, you'd expect that the goalies would jump to the left 1/3 of the time, jump to the right 1/3 of the time, and stay put 1/3 of the time. Jumping to the left and to the right were significantly over-represented in the actual data. The conclusion was that for a goalie's reputation, it is much better to jump to one side or the other and look like he's trying, even if he fails, than to stand in the middle and look like he's being lazy. For an important game, if he does that, and the kicker makes the point, and his team loses, it can mean the end of the goalie's career, just based on people's perception. Or at least that's what the article claimed. Edit: Ah, it was on the Freakonomics podcast. The episode in question is here: http://www.freakonomics.com/2010/06/10/freakonomics-radio-world-cup-edition/?ref=soccer http://www.freakonomics.com/2010/06/10/freakonomics-radio-wo... I had some of the details not quite right above, but the idea is the same. The strategy being putatively underemployed is the kicker kicking it straight down the middle.

philwelch 14y ago
If you watched the recent European Championships, the technique of shooting down the middle--the so-called "Paneka" penalty--seems to be making a resurgence. The problem is that if you overdo it, the goalkeeper will compensate, and a Paneka is a lot easier to save than a well-driven shot to the corner. You might notice that fairly often, even if the goalkeeper chooses the right way to dive, he sometimes doesn't make the save.

philwelch 14y ago

If you watched the recent European Championships, the technique of shooting down the middle--the so-called "Paneka" penalty--seems to be making a resurgence. The problem is that if you overdo it, the goalkeeper will compensate, and a Paneka is a lot easier to save than a well-driven shot to the corner. You might notice that fairly often, even if the goalkeeper chooses the right way to dive, he sometimes doesn't make the save.