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<< That plan worked, so now ByteDance/TikTok/CCP are again forced to sell, except they come to this round of negotiations in a much worse position than they wer
by A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 2y ago
<< That plan worked, so now ByteDance/TikTok/CCP are again forced to sell, except they come to this round of negotiations in a much worse position than they were originally.
I appreciate the analysis even if I disagree with it.
<< many buyers that have come out of the woodwork and made public and private bids for the asset.
It is mildly funny given that China is not selling it. It was defacto made a real geopolitical issue with 170m US users as pawns. They may well be buyers, but China is not in a position of weakness here. If anything, the past 48h showed that users can simply say 'fuck it' out of spite.
In short, from game theory perspective, even if they decided to sell, they can now extract heavy concessions. Yeah, US won so hard on this one.
As I may have mentioned in another post, individual players may have gained some ground, but that is it. US lost a lot in this exchange alone.
- airstrike 2y agoThe extension is for 90 days. If they don't sell, they are worth very little after those three months elapse. It's a life line and a fire sale. Everyone already knew TikTok was valuable. This isn't new information. They have no concessions to extract here. Users haven't said anything out of spite. Some people signing up for some other services was not what drove Trump to announce this executive action.
- A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 2y agoI am willing to put cash money in escrow on this bet, because I do not think it is about the money at this point; not anymore.
- metabagel 2y ago> Some people signing up for some other services was not what drove Trump to announce this executive action. To me, there is a strong appearance of quid pro quo between ByteDance and Trump. In that case, there doesn't need to be a sale. Trump likely will require a simulation of restructuring which enables him to declare ByteDance in compliance, and the whole things goes away.
- moussess 2y agoUS came out way ahead here. They gain full control of TikTok. They have a precedent now to ban apps from hostile power. They gained even more respect from countries that hate China/russia/iran, such as Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, India, etc. they now project power over countries that were trying to play both sides of US and China, such as Singapore, Malaysia. And of course, Chinese government took this takedown with a whimper, signaling it is really powerless against US
- A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 2y ago<< They gain full control of TikTok. Well, did they? So far it is not that clear. << They have a precedent now to ban apps from hostile power. Is that a good thing? If so, why? << They gained even more respect from countries Heh, you honestly may want to reconsider this statement. It is not respect, when China openly effectively says 'nah' to sale and shutters the app instead.. << Chinese government took this takedown with a whimper Huh? Dude... where did you see a whimper. Allow me to revisit events. 1. Congress passes a law effectively banning TikTok 2. TikTok sues over free speech and loses appeal with SCOTUS 3. Rather than selling, it shuts down the app 4. Users go everywhere, but ( apparently ) US apps 5. Incoming administration gives assurances it won't actually enforce anything for now I accept there are ways of looking at things, but this is something else.
- airstrike 2y agoUsers didn't go anywhere. 500-700k of users downloading some app to protest because it's cool is hardly pressuring the government.
- A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 2y agoYou know what? Lets agree to disagree. I am sure we will see the exciting conclusion of this saga 90 days from now.