4 ms·

My read is that the US government originally wanted to try to force TikTok to restructure its relationship with China so it wouldn't be under control of the par

My read is that the US government originally wanted to try to force TikTok to restructure its relationship with China so it wouldn't be under control of the party, either by leaving the country or more likely selling to a US-friendly owner. This was the argument when Trump toyed with the idea during his first mandate. Occam's Razor suggests this was due to both a matter of national security from the perspective of the intelligence community and pressure from US companies who have struggled to outcompete TikTok. Basically an "everybody wins" move for the powers that be.[1] China understandably didn't want to lose its influence, and ByteDance didn't want to give up this incredibly valuable asset, so they said "We'll call your bluff and fight you on the basis of the freedom of speech". The US government then moved to get a law signed that carves out a very specific way to force ByteDance's hand. I'm sure there were lots of lawyers involved and maybe some back channel with the SCOTUS to make sure this was done in a constitutional manner so that it would survive a suit from TikTok which was all but guaranteed.[2] That plan worked, so now ByteDance/TikTok/CCP are again forced to sell, except they come to this round of negotiations in a much worse position than they were originally. This makes it better for the many, many buyers that have come out of the woodwork and made public and private bids for the asset. But these buyers don't want the actual value of TikTok to drop to zero, so they must also be pressuring president-elect Trump to reinstate the app so that it can continue to be used by Americans and therefore remain valuable, so that when they actually get their money's worth when it inevitably changes hands. Trump isn't restoring TikTok so that it can continue to operate as in the "status quo ante bellum negotii". He's restoring it so that {insert buyer} can claim the spoils in a few weeks. --- [1]: We can debate whether "everybody wins" includes the US population, but I think they do, because Chinese influence over US culture is strictly worse than US influence over US culture, seeing as incentives are by definition irreconcilable and therefore always worse if under control of the CCP. [2]: It stands to reason that all of the US government and the top echelons of business and finance is operating in concert here to drive the outcome they want, which is to remove the influence of the CCP over young American minds and to benefit from forcing the asset to be controlled by a US entity.

A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 2y ago
<< That plan worked, so now ByteDance/TikTok/CCP are again forced to sell, except they come to this round of negotiations in a much worse position than they were originally. I appreciate the analysis even if I disagree with it. << many buyers that have come out of the woodwork and made public and private bids for the asset. It is mildly funny given that China is not selling it. It was defacto made a real geopolitical issue with 170m US users as pawns. They may well be buyers, but China is not in a position of weakness here. If anything, the past 48h showed that users can simply say 'fuck it' out of spite. In short, from game theory perspective, even if they decided to sell, they can now extract heavy concessions. Yeah, US won so hard on this one. As I may have mentioned in another post, individual players may have gained some ground, but that is it. US lost a lot in this exchange alone.
- airstrike 2y ago
  The extension is for 90 days. If they don't sell, they are worth very little after those three months elapse. It's a life line and a fire sale. Everyone already knew TikTok was valuable. This isn't new information. They have no concessions to extract here. Users haven't said anything out of spite. Some people signing up for some other services was not what drove Trump to announce this executive action.
  - A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 2y ago
    I am willing to put cash money in escrow on this bet, because I do not think it is about the money at this point; not anymore.
  - metabagel 2y ago
    > Some people signing up for some other services was not what drove Trump to announce this executive action. To me, there is a strong appearance of quid pro quo between ByteDance and Trump. In that case, there doesn't need to be a sale. Trump likely will require a simulation of restructuring which enables him to declare ByteDance in compliance, and the whole things goes away.
- moussess 2y ago
metabagel 2y ago
What makes you think Trump will require anything meaningful of TikTok? What’s important is what TikTok can do for him, not anything related to national security or ownership concerns.
- airstrike 2y ago
  > What makes you think Trump will require anything meaningful of TikTok? I'm not sure I follow as I didn't say Trump will require anything and I don't know what "meaningful" means in this sentence. > What’s important is what TikTok can do for him, not anything related to national security or ownership concerns. You're neglecting what the _sale_ of TikTok can do for him, which is to curry an immense amount of favor with Big Tech, Wall Street and the intelligence community, and possibly one or several unnamed players in this negotiation.
  - metabagel 2y ago
    > I'm not sure I follow as I didn't say Trump will require anything and I don't know what "meaningful" means in this sentence. I thought you said that Trump would require TikTok to be sold. Did I misread? I was asking why you think Trump will require anything meaningful of TikTok. More specifically, why do you think Trump would require TikTok to sell? > You're neglecting what the _sale_ of TikTok can do for him, which is to curry an immense amount of favor with Big Tech, Wall Street and the intelligence community, and possibly one or several unnamed players in this negotiation. Is that any more valuable than the things which TikTok can give him? 1) Cash (purchase Trump's meme coin, stock grant, etc.) 2) Prominence on TikTok
whatthesmack 2y ago
I had to scroll past too many "free speech" takes to finally get to this well-thought analysis of the saga. It has nothing to do with free speech. The US was always going to wind up owning TikTok and influencing speech on the platform. The key issue was price, which is affected by leverage. The strict top-down, centralized control ideals behind CCP/ByteDance/TikTok (they're all the same) were once again outdone by the aforementioned "powers that be".
moussess 2y ago
Great analysis! This comment should be the top post
rfoo 2y ago
> But these buyers don't want the actual value of TikTok to drop to zero Quick reminder: TikTok is available for most of the planet (except China), so a US ban does not make the actual value of TikTok to drop to zero. It makes a sell-off very unlikely, but I doubt it's going to happen no matter what. It's quite puzzling why ByteDance didn't bring up the idea of making a TikTok US in the same way TikTok CN (a.k.a. Douyin) works.

A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 2y ago

<< That plan worked, so now ByteDance/TikTok/CCP are again forced to sell, except they come to this round of negotiations in a much worse position than they were originally. I appreciate the analysis even if I disagree with it. << many buyers that have come out of the woodwork and made public and private bids for the asset. It is mildly funny given that China is not selling it. It was defacto made a real geopolitical issue with 170m US users as pawns. They may well be buyers, but China is not in a position of weakness here. If anything, the past 48h showed that users can simply say 'fuck it' out of spite. In short, from game theory perspective, even if they decided to sell, they can now extract heavy concessions. Yeah, US won so hard on this one. As I may have mentioned in another post, individual players may have gained some ground, but that is it. US lost a lot in this exchange alone.

airstrike 2y ago
The extension is for 90 days. If they don't sell, they are worth very little after those three months elapse. It's a life line and a fire sale. Everyone already knew TikTok was valuable. This isn't new information. They have no concessions to extract here. Users haven't said anything out of spite. Some people signing up for some other services was not what drove Trump to announce this executive action.
- A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 2y ago
  I am willing to put cash money in escrow on this bet, because I do not think it is about the money at this point; not anymore.
- metabagel 2y ago
  > Some people signing up for some other services was not what drove Trump to announce this executive action. To me, there is a strong appearance of quid pro quo between ByteDance and Trump. In that case, there doesn't need to be a sale. Trump likely will require a simulation of restructuring which enables him to declare ByteDance in compliance, and the whole things goes away.
moussess 2y ago

metabagel 2y ago

What makes you think Trump will require anything meaningful of TikTok? What’s important is what TikTok can do for him, not anything related to national security or ownership concerns.

airstrike 2y ago
> What makes you think Trump will require anything meaningful of TikTok? I'm not sure I follow as I didn't say Trump will require anything and I don't know what "meaningful" means in this sentence. > What’s important is what TikTok can do for him, not anything related to national security or ownership concerns. You're neglecting what the _sale_ of TikTok can do for him, which is to curry an immense amount of favor with Big Tech, Wall Street and the intelligence community, and possibly one or several unnamed players in this negotiation.
- metabagel 2y ago
  > I'm not sure I follow as I didn't say Trump will require anything and I don't know what "meaningful" means in this sentence. I thought you said that Trump would require TikTok to be sold. Did I misread? I was asking why you think Trump will require anything meaningful of TikTok. More specifically, why do you think Trump would require TikTok to sell? > You're neglecting what the _sale_ of TikTok can do for him, which is to curry an immense amount of favor with Big Tech, Wall Street and the intelligence community, and possibly one or several unnamed players in this negotiation. Is that any more valuable than the things which TikTok can give him? 1) Cash (purchase Trump's meme coin, stock grant, etc.) 2) Prominence on TikTok

whatthesmack 2y ago

I had to scroll past too many "free speech" takes to finally get to this well-thought analysis of the saga. It has nothing to do with free speech. The US was always going to wind up owning TikTok and influencing speech on the platform. The key issue was price, which is affected by leverage. The strict top-down, centralized control ideals behind CCP/ByteDance/TikTok (they're all the same) were once again outdone by the aforementioned "powers that be".

moussess 2y ago

Great analysis! This comment should be the top post

rfoo 2y ago

> But these buyers don't want the actual value of TikTok to drop to zero Quick reminder: TikTok is available for most of the planet (except China), so a US ban does not make the actual value of TikTok to drop to zero. It makes a sell-off very unlikely, but I doubt it's going to happen no matter what. It's quite puzzling why ByteDance didn't bring up the idea of making a TikTok US in the same way TikTok CN (a.k.a. Douyin) works.