3 ms·

Right. But the graph of 2023(?) data [0] varies hugely by region, from a TFR of 1.65 in Bolzano in the far north, to <= 1.0 in Sardinia and the central regions.

by smcin 2y ago

Right. But the graph of 2023(?) data [0] varies hugely by region, from a TFR of 1.65 in Bolzano in the far north, to <= 1.0 in Sardinia and the central regions. That correlates somewhat with GDP but there are clearly other factors. Also this doesn't show internal migration or external immigration (of adults + children) or the effect of cost of housing - is there any compound graph showing all of that? IIRC, the age of mother at (first) childbirth [1] is a useful statistic for understanding causes: in 2023, ranged from 31.9 yrs in the Islands (Sicily + Sardinia) to average 32.5 to 32.9 years in central Italy. [2] "The province defying Italy’s birth dearth: Thirty years of child-friendly policies" describes how Bolzano - South Tyrol's child-friendly policies and $ incentives have given it the highest birthrate of all of Italy since the 1990s. Also, The Lancet [3] last week wrote "The Italian health data system is broken" "A major weakness of the health-care system in Italy is the fragmented health data infrastructure: there is no unified, centralised system for documenting and sharing electronic health records (EHRs), hospital data, and general practitioner records... The root cause is extensive regional autonomy, with 20 regions operating independently and implementing differing policies and technologies, creating regulatory fragmentation and inefficiencies... Such a fragmented system not only fails the Italian population but also imposes a considerable economic burden on the country." Is Meloni's govt changing any of that? [0]: https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/18p6ivs/fertility_rate_in_italy_live_births_per_woman/ https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/18p6ivs/fertility_... [1]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/567957/mother-average-age-at-childbirth-in-italy-by-macro-region/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/567957/mother-average-ag... [2]: https://www.boomcampaign.org/p/the-province-defying-italys-birth https://www.boomcampaign.org/p/the-province-defying-italys-b... [3]: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(24)00375-2/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7...

toomuchtodo 2y ago
The policies needed are the policies you refer to in the region showing the outlier.
- smcin 2y ago
  a) Not necessarily: b) Those are provincial policies of South Tyrol, not the Italian government c) South Tyrols started its policies 40 years ago. They also included creating a govt-supported childminder day-care system ('Casa Bimbo'). d) Each province would have to first get political and economic consensus on what is a desirable birthrate for a particular province, or at least agree that pro-child policies should be implemented with taxpayer money (which in general in European politics is taboo for even discussing). e) The policies that would be needed in other provinces/regions would presumably be different and more expensive to Bolzano which has very a low cost of living. e) South Tyrol's provincial govt is led by the South Tyrolean People's Party (SVP), a Christian-democratic political party for the German-speaking minority. Presumably this is considered allowable identitarianism by Italians (or at least South Tyroleans), unlike elsewhere in Italy, or Europe (compare to Hungary or Poland).

by smcin 2y ago

toomuchtodo 2y ago

The policies needed are the policies you refer to in the region showing the outlier.

smcin 2y ago
a) Not necessarily: b) Those are provincial policies of South Tyrol, not the Italian government c) South Tyrols started its policies 40 years ago. They also included creating a govt-supported childminder day-care system ('Casa Bimbo'). d) Each province would have to first get political and economic consensus on what is a desirable birthrate for a particular province, or at least agree that pro-child policies should be implemented with taxpayer money (which in general in European politics is taboo for even discussing). e) The policies that would be needed in other provinces/regions would presumably be different and more expensive to Bolzano which has very a low cost of living. e) South Tyrol's provincial govt is led by the South Tyrolean People's Party (SVP), a Christian-democratic political party for the German-speaking minority. Presumably this is considered allowable identitarianism by Italians (or at least South Tyroleans), unlike elsewhere in Italy, or Europe (compare to Hungary or Poland).