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I don’t think any economic/parental leave/policy changes can bring a nation’s TFR to replacement rate if women are able to stay single and/or cannot be coerced

I don’t think any economic/parental leave/policy changes can bring a nation’s TFR to replacement rate if women are able to stay single and/or cannot be coerced into having more kids than they want (i.e. have physical security and ability to earn income). The simplest way to explain is that too few women will have 3 or more kids to offset the number of women that have 0 or 1 child. Part of it is like that Seinfeld bit about 95% of the population being undate-able. If you have say, 20% of women who don’t pair up because the there is no match available better than them staying single, and another 20% of women who have at most 1 kid, that requires a lot of the remaining women to have 3 or more kids to balance out to 2.1. And I rarely see someone with 3 or more kids, I didn’t even see it much when I was a kid 30 years ago.

toomuchtodo 2y ago
Certainly, we could argue that this is solely a result of women empowerment and choice and ignore the folks who say “it’s the economy.” At that point, switch to planned decline if no effort will be made to help those actually interested in reproducing socially and economically. I take issue with the disingenuous and performance art of the messaging, “the purpose of the system is what it does.” Admit defeat and plan for it, it’s not a matter of “if” but simply steepness of downward trajectory.
- lotsofpulp 2y ago
  There very well could be an economic component, but the important part is can TFR be raised to above replacement rate, which is what I am seeing zero evidence of based on global data from all different countries with different policies.
- datavirtue 2y ago
  I'm interested in it. This contrivance of consent (society protecting and empowering women is pure contrived luxury) is a evolutionary dead end. That's why nature never saw fit to program it in. Women need to be desperate for security (financial and physical) or they simply will not have enough children. Anyway. Build the replicators before it all stops. We are a stepping stone to whatever is next. The only answer is to brainwash the hell out of women to focus on child rearing as the top priority. Patriarchal religion springs to mind.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- blackeyeblitzar 2y ago
  Aren’t the two - empowerment and economy - related? We went from having someone at home to take care of kids, which makes it easier to have them, to having no one at home and double the supply of workers, which of course reduces wages compared to the alternative world.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    Yes, the two income trap is likely a factor. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Two-Income_Trap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Two-Income_Trap https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/adults-no-children-why-pew-data https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/adults-no-children-why-pew-... > An increasing share of adults under 50 say they're unlikely to have kids — and the major reason is, well, they just don't want them, according to a report from Pew Research Center out Thursday morning. > 64% of young women say they just don't want children, compared to 50% of men. https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2024/07/25/the-experiences-of-u-s-adults-who-dont-have-children/ https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2024/07/25/the-exp... > Majorities in both groups say not having kids has made it easier for them to afford the things they want, have time for hobbies and interests, and save for the future. In the younger group, about six-in-ten also say not having kids has made it easier for them to be successful in their job or career and to have an active social life. (US specific context)

toomuchtodo 2y ago

Certainly, we could argue that this is solely a result of women empowerment and choice and ignore the folks who say “it’s the economy.” At that point, switch to planned decline if no effort will be made to help those actually interested in reproducing socially and economically. I take issue with the disingenuous and performance art of the messaging, “the purpose of the system is what it does.” Admit defeat and plan for it, it’s not a matter of “if” but simply steepness of downward trajectory.

lotsofpulp 2y ago
There very well could be an economic component, but the important part is can TFR be raised to above replacement rate, which is what I am seeing zero evidence of based on global data from all different countries with different policies.
datavirtue 2y ago
I'm interested in it. This contrivance of consent (society protecting and empowering women is pure contrived luxury) is a evolutionary dead end. That's why nature never saw fit to program it in. Women need to be desperate for security (financial and physical) or they simply will not have enough children. Anyway. Build the replicators before it all stops. We are a stepping stone to whatever is next. The only answer is to brainwash the hell out of women to focus on child rearing as the top priority. Patriarchal religion springs to mind.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
blackeyeblitzar 2y ago
Aren’t the two - empowerment and economy - related? We went from having someone at home to take care of kids, which makes it easier to have them, to having no one at home and double the supply of workers, which of course reduces wages compared to the alternative world.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  Yes, the two income trap is likely a factor. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Two-Income_Trap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Two-Income_Trap https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/adults-no-children-why-pew-data https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/adults-no-children-why-pew-... > An increasing share of adults under 50 say they're unlikely to have kids — and the major reason is, well, they just don't want them, according to a report from Pew Research Center out Thursday morning. > 64% of young women say they just don't want children, compared to 50% of men. https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2024/07/25/the-experiences-of-u-s-adults-who-dont-have-children/ https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2024/07/25/the-exp... > Majorities in both groups say not having kids has made it easier for them to afford the things they want, have time for hobbies and interests, and save for the future. In the younger group, about six-in-ten also say not having kids has made it easier for them to be successful in their job or career and to have an active social life. (US specific context)