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In the context of knowing who somebody is, to know if I should take advice from him, I think knowing what somebody did as a predictor does not tell me if he can

by f1shy 2y ago

In the context of knowing who somebody is, to know if I should take advice from him, I think knowing what somebody did as a predictor does not tell me if he can help me or not. The whole thing about prison does not apply to work, does it? I mean, I have switched tasks, countries, companies, industries many times. And through it, you could not believe I was the same person, as my behavior was very much influenced by the environment. That was pointed out by people who know me. So the trying to predict the future just doing linear interpolation of the past, no, it does not work with people in the professional environment. I do believe you it works for convict felons. But I know nothing about it. On the other hand many many times in HN I’ve read comments of people that were in prison, and today are much better and are not looking back. Survivor bias you may say?

iugtmkbdfil834 2y ago
<< The whole thing about prison does not apply to work, does it? One would hope, but similarities are not that easy to ignore. I might even extend it further, because I saw the same approach, for whatever reason, replicated among many grammar level education bodies. << In the context of knowing who somebody is, to know if I should take advice from him, I think knowing what somebody did as a predictor does not tell me if he can help me or not. I disagree in general, but other poster noted that the connection may not be as clear / useful to the discussion. With that in mind, I will try to present a different example. << I mean, I have switched tasks, countries, companies, industries many times. And through it, you could not believe I was the same person, as my behavior was very much influenced by the environment. That was pointed out by people who know me. So the trying to predict the future just doing linear interpolation of the past, no, it does not work with people in the professional environment. I will briefly engage in that analogy again. And other prisoners were transferred, went to different prisons, were let out, and so on. For all the steps listed, similar steps for 'non-professional environment' could be reasonably construed. << So the trying to predict the future just doing linear interpolation of the past, no, it does not work with people in the professional environment. Linear? No. Heuristic prediction. Yes. << But I know nothing about it. We are just two minds on the internet. I know what is available to me. << On the other hand many many times in HN I’ve read comments of people that were in prison, and today are much better and are not looking back. Survivor bias you may say? Anecdata vs statistics, but I accept that exceptions exist. We are humans. *********** Would it help if we changed the example to that serial enterpreneur will likely remain one and continue to find/fund/invest in profitable ventures with a better chance of success than a person that does no? That seems more fitting to HN.

by f1shy 2y ago

iugtmkbdfil834 2y ago

<< The whole thing about prison does not apply to work, does it? One would hope, but similarities are not that easy to ignore. I might even extend it further, because I saw the same approach, for whatever reason, replicated among many grammar level education bodies. << In the context of knowing who somebody is, to know if I should take advice from him, I think knowing what somebody did as a predictor does not tell me if he can help me or not. I disagree in general, but other poster noted that the connection may not be as clear / useful to the discussion. With that in mind, I will try to present a different example. << I mean, I have switched tasks, countries, companies, industries many times. And through it, you could not believe I was the same person, as my behavior was very much influenced by the environment. That was pointed out by people who know me. So the trying to predict the future just doing linear interpolation of the past, no, it does not work with people in the professional environment. I will briefly engage in that analogy again. And other prisoners were transferred, went to different prisons, were let out, and so on. For all the steps listed, similar steps for 'non-professional environment' could be reasonably construed. << So the trying to predict the future just doing linear interpolation of the past, no, it does not work with people in the professional environment. Linear? No. Heuristic prediction. Yes. << But I know nothing about it. We are just two minds on the internet. I know what is available to me. << On the other hand many many times in HN I’ve read comments of people that were in prison, and today are much better and are not looking back. Survivor bias you may say? Anecdata vs statistics, but I accept that exceptions exist. We are humans. *********** Would it help if we changed the example to that serial enterpreneur will likely remain one and continue to find/fund/invest in profitable ventures with a better chance of success than a person that does no? That seems more fitting to HN.