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> Now the Mac market share is above 20%, because eventually the people using it in schools start using it somewhere else Absolutely no kid says “I love these

> Now the Mac market share is above 20%, because eventually the people using it in schools start using it somewhere else Absolutely no kid says “I love these shitty Chrome OS laptops that I have to use in schools. Can I have one at home!” When they get to choose a computer for college at least in the US, they overwhelmingly choose Macs. And Dell overtook Apple in schools in 1999. Even back in 2010, 70% of students were choosing to buy Macs for college https://www.asymco.com/2010/08/04/70-percent-of-college-freshman-are-entering-school-with-macs/ https://www.asymco.com/2010/08/04/70-percent-of-college-fres... That trend has continued at least through 2020. https://www.jamf.com/resources/press-releases/new-research-finds-71-of-students-in-higher-education-today-use-or-would-prefer-to-use-mac/ https://www.jamf.com/resources/press-releases/new-research-f... And saying that Linux grew from 1% to 5% in 10 years means it’s going to grow to 25% reads like every startup pitch. “We doubled from 1% to 2% in a year. At this rate we will have almost 70% of the market in 6 years!” The “Year of the Desktop Linux” has been a meme for over 25 years. https://www.howtogeek.com/676963/why-desktop-linux-still-matters/?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://www.howtogeek.com/676963/why-desktop-linux-still-mat...

AnthonyMouse 2y ago
> Absolutely no kid says “I love these shitty Chrome OS laptops that I have to use in schools. Can I have one at home!” When they get to choose a computer for college at least in the US, they overwhelmingly choose Macs. The value of ChromeOS to Linux in general is that it has no Windows-specific dependencies. They don't have to like the hardware, Linux runs on all kinds of hardware. But if they cut their teeth on Windows then they're trained on MS Office etc., and on ChromeOS they're not. Then they get a job and don't expect MS Office, so a work PC running Ubuntu is just fine. > And saying that Linux grew from 1% to 5% in 10 years means it’s going to grow to 25% reads like every startup pitch. “We doubled from 1% to 2% in a year. At this rate we will have almost 70% of the market in 6 years!” Except that it was from 1.x% to 4.x% in four years, as a result of a confluence of factors that continue to be present: Historical Windows-specific software is declining as it's converted to web and mobile, Valve continues to increase the viability of Linux gaming (which is the largest remaining holdout in the former category), users are increasingly frustrated with Microsoft who is now making more money from Azure than Windows and increasingly unafraid to piss people off with start menu ads and dark patterns, Windows 10 is about to go EOL and with it the vast quantities of PC hardware that don't officially support Windows 11 but run Linux just fine, etc. Is it going to continue to increase at >50% a year forever? Probably not. Is it going to keep going up? It certainly seems that way.
- scarface_74 2y ago
  > The value of ChromeOS to Linux in general is that it has no Windows-specific dependencies. They don't have to like the hardware, Linux runs on all kinds of hardware. And none of the hardware that Linux runs on runs 15 hours on a battery, quiet and fanless. In the US people with money (or student loans) have a choice, they have been actively choosing Macs since 2010. > But if they cut their teeth on Windows then they're trained on MS Office etc., and on ChromeOS they're not. And they can go to Walmart and buy an $850 M1 MacBook Air that can run MS Office, all of the other commercial software, still have a faster quieter ARM based Mac and it integrates with their other Apple devices - iPhone has a 70% market share in the US. > the vast quantities of PC hardware that don't officially support Windows 11 but run Linux just fine, etc. And what’s more likely? They put Linux on their old slow laptops that run hot, loud and with piss poor battery life - all of which is worse with Linux - or they just buy another Windows computer or Mac that runs all of their software? If they are using Office365, they don’t have to buy new software even if they do switch to Mac.
  - AnthonyMouse 2y ago
    > And none of the hardware that Linux runs on runs 15 hours on a battery, quiet and fanless. Of course it does? People have reported 20+ hour battery life on Linux laptops: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16058712 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16058712 And the ones with such low power consumption are either fanless or the fans don't run anyway because you don't need a fan to dissipate two watts. > And they can go to Walmart and buy an $850 M1 MacBook Air that can run MS Office, all of the other commercial software But they don't need any commercial software. All of that stuff is dead and dying, replaced by web pages. Whether that's good or not, it's certainly happening. > still have a faster quieter ARM based Mac That $850 M1 is five years old. For the same price you can get a faster Ryzen laptop on a newer TSMC process. Meanwhile if you want a higher end machine, Apple overcharges so much for RAM that most people can't afford it. Notice how much lower Mac market share is than iPhone. > it integrates with their other Apple devices This is not a reason for anybody to use Windows, and Android has 70% global market share, so by this logic the global PC market should be trending toward 70% Linux and 30% Mac. > And what’s more likely? They put Linux on their old slow laptops that run hot, loud and with piss poor battery life - all of which is worse with Linux - or they just buy another Windows computer or Mac that runs all of their software? People have a random laptop which is 80% as fast as a new laptop and gets 6+ hours of battery life under Linux, but doesn't support Windows 11. Option one is they keep it and put Linux on it, which saves them hundreds to thousands of dollars for a new laptop, which is a pretty big advantage. Option two is they sell it and buy a new laptop, and then someone else buys it to put Linux on it and the installed base of Linux users still goes up. > If they are using Office365, they don’t have to buy new software even if they do switch to Mac. They're not using Office365, that's the point.

AnthonyMouse 2y ago

> Absolutely no kid says “I love these shitty Chrome OS laptops that I have to use in schools. Can I have one at home!” When they get to choose a computer for college at least in the US, they overwhelmingly choose Macs. The value of ChromeOS to Linux in general is that it has no Windows-specific dependencies. They don't have to like the hardware, Linux runs on all kinds of hardware. But if they cut their teeth on Windows then they're trained on MS Office etc., and on ChromeOS they're not. Then they get a job and don't expect MS Office, so a work PC running Ubuntu is just fine. > And saying that Linux grew from 1% to 5% in 10 years means it’s going to grow to 25% reads like every startup pitch. “We doubled from 1% to 2% in a year. At this rate we will have almost 70% of the market in 6 years!” Except that it was from 1.x% to 4.x% in four years, as a result of a confluence of factors that continue to be present: Historical Windows-specific software is declining as it's converted to web and mobile, Valve continues to increase the viability of Linux gaming (which is the largest remaining holdout in the former category), users are increasingly frustrated with Microsoft who is now making more money from Azure than Windows and increasingly unafraid to piss people off with start menu ads and dark patterns, Windows 10 is about to go EOL and with it the vast quantities of PC hardware that don't officially support Windows 11 but run Linux just fine, etc. Is it going to continue to increase at >50% a year forever? Probably not. Is it going to keep going up? It certainly seems that way.

scarface_74 2y ago
> The value of ChromeOS to Linux in general is that it has no Windows-specific dependencies. They don't have to like the hardware, Linux runs on all kinds of hardware. And none of the hardware that Linux runs on runs 15 hours on a battery, quiet and fanless. In the US people with money (or student loans) have a choice, they have been actively choosing Macs since 2010. > But if they cut their teeth on Windows then they're trained on MS Office etc., and on ChromeOS they're not. And they can go to Walmart and buy an $850 M1 MacBook Air that can run MS Office, all of the other commercial software, still have a faster quieter ARM based Mac and it integrates with their other Apple devices - iPhone has a 70% market share in the US. > the vast quantities of PC hardware that don't officially support Windows 11 but run Linux just fine, etc. And what’s more likely? They put Linux on their old slow laptops that run hot, loud and with piss poor battery life - all of which is worse with Linux - or they just buy another Windows computer or Mac that runs all of their software? If they are using Office365, they don’t have to buy new software even if they do switch to Mac.
- AnthonyMouse 2y ago
  > And none of the hardware that Linux runs on runs 15 hours on a battery, quiet and fanless. Of course it does? People have reported 20+ hour battery life on Linux laptops: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16058712 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16058712 And the ones with such low power consumption are either fanless or the fans don't run anyway because you don't need a fan to dissipate two watts. > And they can go to Walmart and buy an $850 M1 MacBook Air that can run MS Office, all of the other commercial software But they don't need any commercial software. All of that stuff is dead and dying, replaced by web pages. Whether that's good or not, it's certainly happening. > still have a faster quieter ARM based Mac That $850 M1 is five years old. For the same price you can get a faster Ryzen laptop on a newer TSMC process. Meanwhile if you want a higher end machine, Apple overcharges so much for RAM that most people can't afford it. Notice how much lower Mac market share is than iPhone. > it integrates with their other Apple devices This is not a reason for anybody to use Windows, and Android has 70% global market share, so by this logic the global PC market should be trending toward 70% Linux and 30% Mac. > And what’s more likely? They put Linux on their old slow laptops that run hot, loud and with piss poor battery life - all of which is worse with Linux - or they just buy another Windows computer or Mac that runs all of their software? People have a random laptop which is 80% as fast as a new laptop and gets 6+ hours of battery life under Linux, but doesn't support Windows 11. Option one is they keep it and put Linux on it, which saves them hundreds to thousands of dollars for a new laptop, which is a pretty big advantage. Option two is they sell it and buy a new laptop, and then someone else buys it to put Linux on it and the installed base of Linux users still goes up. > If they are using Office365, they don’t have to buy new software even if they do switch to Mac. They're not using Office365, that's the point.