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> The Nixon Shock caused the Yom Kippur War that sparked OPEC's embargo of America [1]? Absolutely. The Yom Kippur war was the straw that broke the camel's bac

> The Nixon Shock caused the Yom Kippur War that sparked OPEC's embargo of America [1]? Absolutely. The Yom Kippur war was the straw that broke the camel's back, but the Nixon Shock was the force supplying the tension. The Nixon Shock sent the value of the US dollar in significant decline (high inflation), which was the currency being used to buy OPEC oil. From OPEC's perspective they were facing declining revenues due to dollar inflation and were suspicious the Western nations were manipulating the global economy to their advantage. The Yom Kippur war brought everything to a head since it was those same Western nations who were supporting Israel. OPEC decided they'd had enough.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> the Nixon Shock was the force supplying the tension More than the aftermath of the 1967 Six-Day War? > From OPEC's perspective they were facing declining revenues due to dollar inflation The real price of oil declined from 1948 until July 1973 [1]. You'd be hard pressed to find the Nixon shock on the international price of oil; it monotonically declined from January 2021 until July 1973. Bretton Woods ended on 15 August 1971; on 17 October 1973 OPEC embargoed the U.S. > OPEC decided they'd had enough OPEC cut production in 1973 and raised prices on everyone. They kept pricing their oil in dollars and selling it for dollars because this wasn't a dispute about dollars or Bretton Woods, it was a dispute over Israel between King Faisal and Nixon. [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-cha...
- taylodl 2y ago
  > More than the aftermath of the 1967 Six-Day War? Yes. Those were Egypt and Syria's concern, not OPEC's. > You'd be hard pressed to find the Nixon shock on the international price of oil BINGO! That's the problem. The US dollar was tanking due to the Nixon Shock. OPEC was getting paid with ever more worthless pieces of paper. OPEC already had soured relations with the West due to the Nixon Shock and believed they weren't being compensated fairly for their product, due to how the oil market was structured at that time. The West's support of Israel during the Yom Kippur War simply proved to be too much. OPEC retaliated to these events with the Oil Embargo, which completely altered the oil market from then on and gave OPEC much greater financial power, and money. At the end of the day, the Oil Embargo was mostly about money, solving a money crises created by the Nixon Shock. Its resolution resulted in OPEC getting more money. Let me put it this way, if there had been no Nixon Shock, would the Yom Kippur War in and of itself have caused the Oil Embargo? Probably not. The Oil Embargo wasn't about ideology, it was about money. That's why the always say to follow the money.
  - dan-robertson 2y ago
    Real prices, which account for inflation, do not show the Nixon shock. Maybe you think the nominal prices should be adjusted some other way to show the Nixon shock?
    - taylodl 2y ago
      Real prices account for CPI, not the dollar's fall against international currencies. From our perspective, the Nixon Shock appeared to have little effect. That wasn't true for our trading partners.
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > Real prices account for CPI, not the dollar's fall against international currencies Real means inflation adjusted. How you deflate is a methodological choice. For a consumer price, you deflate by the appropriate CPI or PCU. For producers, PPI. For international comparisons, either PPP or a trade-weighted basket of currencies. The Nixon shock did not have an effect on real oil prices for OPEC members. It’s comforting to think complex events like the Oil Embargo have singular causes. But switching to Bitcoin won’t stop foreign wars or inflation or any of the things every country on metal standards dealt with for thousands of years.
        taylodl 2y ago
        > The Nixon shock did not have an effect on real oil prices for OPEC members. That's simply factually incorrect and I'm done arguing over a simple fact. And no, I don't agree to disagree. > It’s comforting to think complex events like the Oil Embargo have singular causes. You are the one who's been arguing the Oil Embargo has a simple cause, namely the Yom Kippur War. I'm the one who's been arguing there were multiple causes, and the Yom Kippur War was simply the straw that broke the camel's back.
      - dan-robertson 2y ago
        What method of adjusting oil prices do you propose. What does the graph look like when adjusted with this method?

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> the Nixon Shock was the force supplying the tension More than the aftermath of the 1967 Six-Day War? > From OPEC's perspective they were facing declining revenues due to dollar inflation The real price of oil declined from 1948 until July 1973 [1]. You'd be hard pressed to find the Nixon shock on the international price of oil; it monotonically declined from January 2021 until July 1973. Bretton Woods ended on 15 August 1971; on 17 October 1973 OPEC embargoed the U.S. > OPEC decided they'd had enough OPEC cut production in 1973 and raised prices on everyone. They kept pricing their oil in dollars and selling it for dollars because this wasn't a dispute about dollars or Bretton Woods, it was a dispute over Israel between King Faisal and Nixon. [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-cha...

taylodl 2y ago
> More than the aftermath of the 1967 Six-Day War? Yes. Those were Egypt and Syria's concern, not OPEC's. > You'd be hard pressed to find the Nixon shock on the international price of oil BINGO! That's the problem. The US dollar was tanking due to the Nixon Shock. OPEC was getting paid with ever more worthless pieces of paper. OPEC already had soured relations with the West due to the Nixon Shock and believed they weren't being compensated fairly for their product, due to how the oil market was structured at that time. The West's support of Israel during the Yom Kippur War simply proved to be too much. OPEC retaliated to these events with the Oil Embargo, which completely altered the oil market from then on and gave OPEC much greater financial power, and money. At the end of the day, the Oil Embargo was mostly about money, solving a money crises created by the Nixon Shock. Its resolution resulted in OPEC getting more money. Let me put it this way, if there had been no Nixon Shock, would the Yom Kippur War in and of itself have caused the Oil Embargo? Probably not. The Oil Embargo wasn't about ideology, it was about money. That's why the always say to follow the money.
- dan-robertson 2y ago
  Real prices, which account for inflation, do not show the Nixon shock. Maybe you think the nominal prices should be adjusted some other way to show the Nixon shock?
  - taylodl 2y ago
    Real prices account for CPI, not the dollar's fall against international currencies. From our perspective, the Nixon Shock appeared to have little effect. That wasn't true for our trading partners.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > Real prices account for CPI, not the dollar's fall against international currencies Real means inflation adjusted. How you deflate is a methodological choice. For a consumer price, you deflate by the appropriate CPI or PCU. For producers, PPI. For international comparisons, either PPP or a trade-weighted basket of currencies. The Nixon shock did not have an effect on real oil prices for OPEC members. It’s comforting to think complex events like the Oil Embargo have singular causes. But switching to Bitcoin won’t stop foreign wars or inflation or any of the things every country on metal standards dealt with for thousands of years.
      - taylodl 2y ago
        > The Nixon shock did not have an effect on real oil prices for OPEC members. That's simply factually incorrect and I'm done arguing over a simple fact. And no, I don't agree to disagree. > It’s comforting to think complex events like the Oil Embargo have singular causes. You are the one who's been arguing the Oil Embargo has a simple cause, namely the Yom Kippur War. I'm the one who's been arguing there were multiple causes, and the Yom Kippur War was simply the straw that broke the camel's back.
    - dan-robertson 2y ago
      What method of adjusting oil prices do you propose. What does the graph look like when adjusted with this method?