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I don't see any way for Tesla to survive as a company unless they can completely disconnect from Musk. In urban/leftist/yuppie circles- the only people that act

by _yb2s 2y ago

I don't see any way for Tesla to survive as a company unless they can completely disconnect from Musk. In urban/leftist/yuppie circles- the only people that actually buy high end EVs new- it is socially taboo now to buy a Tesla, and the people already owning them are embarrassed, and hoping to get rid of them soon. The cybertruck is especially taboo and called names like the "incElCamino." I think there is a big potential to capture the rural more right leaning market with EVs that have more range, offroad ability, and torque than ICE vehicles- but this will be done by brands like Jeep, Ford, and Scout through EVs with ICE range extenders that can operate outside of a charging network.

JeremyNT 2y ago
> I don't see any way for Tesla to survive as a company unless they can completely disconnect from Musk. In urban/leftist/yuppie circles- the only people that actually buy high end EVs new- it is socially taboo now to buy a Tesla, and the people already owning them are embarrassed, and hoping to get rid of them soon. The cybertruck is especially taboo and called names like the "incElCamino." If you come to the richer southern cities the picture is very different than what you describe. I'm living in Nashville TN right now and there are Teslas everywhere. Many Republicans proudly have big lifted pickup trucks and Teslas (and a LOT of cybertrucks). So while becoming an outspoken culture warrior may have cost Musk's brand some support in blue states, it has dramatically increased its appeal in "real America" where people love showing off their masculinity through their vehicles. I suspect the Cybertruck will dominate the legacy auto makers in the EV pickup segment.
- taylodl 2y ago
  So their anti-EV sentiment for the past 10 years was all BS? Got it.
  - JeremyNT 2y ago
    I certainly wouldn't say that - I would say that here in "real America" they (meaning rich or "middle class" people with disposable income who engage in the culture war stuff) want to buy vehicles that are good at owning the libs. It used to be that owning the libs was pretty simple, use more gasoline in a big lifted pickup truck. But now there are other ways to own the libs... you can also buy your electric cars from a rich guy who owns the libs. It's the free market at work!
    - _yb2s 2y ago
      Sounds like what we really need is more carbon neutral/carbon negative ways to "Own the libs."
    - jemmyw 2y ago
      ... do these people really spend so much time / define their lives in terms of another group they they barely mix with?
      - taylodl 2y ago
        Sounds pretty pathetic, doesn't it?
      - JeremyNT 2y ago
        I'm being reductive, but there's a strong cultural element to vehicle ownership. To be less glib about it, vehicle ownership is very much tied to identity in sprawly rural America. In the south today, the big lifted trucks are both status symbols and cultural signifiers. They immediately and visibly identify people as part of the southern / "rural" group (in quotes because many people in this group engage in performative rurality, while in reality they live in sprawly suburbs). Members of this tribe are also naturally are more inclined to identify as Republican. So things like the Cybertruck appeal in multiple ways; as Musk is such a vocal Republican, his cool factor goes up with the subset of this group that is extremely into politics. This is one pathway to adoption. Outside of that, the Cybertruck is a massive pickup truck, and it is very expensive. Vehicle size and expense are both ways to signal status to people in this culture. This is another pathway to adoption. Hence, I believe that it will become very popular in these areas. I think the Tesla cars initially succeeded because they proved to suburbanites looking to display their status via a vehicle that electric cars could be "cool" and not "lame." Now, "culturally rural" people have their own equivalent.
- senordevnyc 2y ago
  You're wildly exaggerating. There are only ~33k EV registrations in the entire state of TN [1], or just over 1% of all registrations in the state [2]. I don't doubt that most of them are Teslas, but they're hardly everywhere. Also as of October, they'd only delivered about 27k Cybertrucks globally, so even if you assume 5% went to TN (which seems ridiculously unlikely), that's ~1500 vehicles out of the literally hundreds of thousands of non-EV trucks in the state. 1. https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962 https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962 2. https://www.statista.com/statistics/196010/total-number-of-registered-automobiles-in-the-us-by-state/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/196010/total-number-of-r...
whamlastxmas 2y ago
It is beyond out of touch to not see how one of the most profitable and successful car companies of all time is going to survive. Tesla is doing amazing and isn’t slowing down.
- r00fus 2y ago
  High valuation != most successful. Don't mistake valuation with value.
- _yb2s 2y ago
  Are they doing well? For example Toyota sells 5x as many cars, but has 1/5th the market cap. Low sales but high market cap is normally a dangerous situation to be in unless you're sure you have some massive tech advantage that will keep you growing fast. Tesla sales leveled off a few years ago, and now show no indication of ever catching up with the other car companies. At first they were way ahead technology wise with the first really practical EVs on the market, but seem to be falling behind fast. For example Porsche/VW/Audi released 800v production cars 4 years before Tesla did- and those cars still beat all of the S models on a real track with way lower paper specs. Waymo/Google has self driving tech that works demonstrably way better than Teslas. The offroad vehicle/traction systems on the Cybertruck don't work as well as any of the established 4x4 companies products- or for that matter even any of the 20 year old high end SUVs like a Porsche Cayenne or a Land Cruiser. What is their advantage that justifies the insanely high evaluation with low sales?
  - simonsarris 2y ago
    > Are they doing well? For example Toyota sells 5x as many cars, but has 1/5th the market cap. Low sales but high market cap is normally a dangerous situation to be in unless you're sure you have some massive tech advantage that will keep you growing fast. I think 15 billion profit on 97 billion revenue is doing pretty well. Ford is 4b profit on 176b revenue. VW is 16bn on 322. > Tesla sales leveled off a few years ago 2024 is the first year since 2011 with a decline (a 1.1% decline), each year prior saw a considerable increase.
    - 2y ago

by _yb2s 2y ago

JeremyNT 2y ago

> I don't see any way for Tesla to survive as a company unless they can completely disconnect from Musk. In urban/leftist/yuppie circles- the only people that actually buy high end EVs new- it is socially taboo now to buy a Tesla, and the people already owning them are embarrassed, and hoping to get rid of them soon. The cybertruck is especially taboo and called names like the "incElCamino." If you come to the richer southern cities the picture is very different than what you describe. I'm living in Nashville TN right now and there are Teslas everywhere. Many Republicans proudly have big lifted pickup trucks and Teslas (and a LOT of cybertrucks). So while becoming an outspoken culture warrior may have cost Musk's brand some support in blue states, it has dramatically increased its appeal in "real America" where people love showing off their masculinity through their vehicles. I suspect the Cybertruck will dominate the legacy auto makers in the EV pickup segment.

taylodl 2y ago
So their anti-EV sentiment for the past 10 years was all BS? Got it.
- JeremyNT 2y ago
  I certainly wouldn't say that - I would say that here in "real America" they (meaning rich or "middle class" people with disposable income who engage in the culture war stuff) want to buy vehicles that are good at owning the libs. It used to be that owning the libs was pretty simple, use more gasoline in a big lifted pickup truck. But now there are other ways to own the libs... you can also buy your electric cars from a rich guy who owns the libs. It's the free market at work!
  - _yb2s 2y ago
    Sounds like what we really need is more carbon neutral/carbon negative ways to "Own the libs."
  - jemmyw 2y ago
    ... do these people really spend so much time / define their lives in terms of another group they they barely mix with?
    - taylodl 2y ago
      Sounds pretty pathetic, doesn't it?
    - JeremyNT 2y ago
      I'm being reductive, but there's a strong cultural element to vehicle ownership. To be less glib about it, vehicle ownership is very much tied to identity in sprawly rural America. In the south today, the big lifted trucks are both status symbols and cultural signifiers. They immediately and visibly identify people as part of the southern / "rural" group (in quotes because many people in this group engage in performative rurality, while in reality they live in sprawly suburbs). Members of this tribe are also naturally are more inclined to identify as Republican. So things like the Cybertruck appeal in multiple ways; as Musk is such a vocal Republican, his cool factor goes up with the subset of this group that is extremely into politics. This is one pathway to adoption. Outside of that, the Cybertruck is a massive pickup truck, and it is very expensive. Vehicle size and expense are both ways to signal status to people in this culture. This is another pathway to adoption. Hence, I believe that it will become very popular in these areas. I think the Tesla cars initially succeeded because they proved to suburbanites looking to display their status via a vehicle that electric cars could be "cool" and not "lame." Now, "culturally rural" people have their own equivalent.
senordevnyc 2y ago
You're wildly exaggerating. There are only ~33k EV registrations in the entire state of TN [1], or just over 1% of all registrations in the state [2]. I don't doubt that most of them are Teslas, but they're hardly everywhere. Also as of October, they'd only delivered about 27k Cybertrucks globally, so even if you assume 5% went to TN (which seems ridiculously unlikely), that's ~1500 vehicles out of the literally hundreds of thousands of non-EV trucks in the state. 1. https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962 https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962 2. https://www.statista.com/statistics/196010/total-number-of-registered-automobiles-in-the-us-by-state/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/196010/total-number-of-r...

whamlastxmas 2y ago

It is beyond out of touch to not see how one of the most profitable and successful car companies of all time is going to survive. Tesla is doing amazing and isn’t slowing down.

r00fus 2y ago
High valuation != most successful. Don't mistake valuation with value.
_yb2s 2y ago
Are they doing well? For example Toyota sells 5x as many cars, but has 1/5th the market cap. Low sales but high market cap is normally a dangerous situation to be in unless you're sure you have some massive tech advantage that will keep you growing fast. Tesla sales leveled off a few years ago, and now show no indication of ever catching up with the other car companies. At first they were way ahead technology wise with the first really practical EVs on the market, but seem to be falling behind fast. For example Porsche/VW/Audi released 800v production cars 4 years before Tesla did- and those cars still beat all of the S models on a real track with way lower paper specs. Waymo/Google has self driving tech that works demonstrably way better than Teslas. The offroad vehicle/traction systems on the Cybertruck don't work as well as any of the established 4x4 companies products- or for that matter even any of the 20 year old high end SUVs like a Porsche Cayenne or a Land Cruiser. What is their advantage that justifies the insanely high evaluation with low sales?
- simonsarris 2y ago
  > Are they doing well? For example Toyota sells 5x as many cars, but has 1/5th the market cap. Low sales but high market cap is normally a dangerous situation to be in unless you're sure you have some massive tech advantage that will keep you growing fast. I think 15 billion profit on 97 billion revenue is doing pretty well. Ford is 4b profit on 176b revenue. VW is 16bn on 322. > Tesla sales leveled off a few years ago 2024 is the first year since 2011 with a decline (a 1.1% decline), each year prior saw a considerable increase.
  - 2y ago