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Even after losing 16% in a month, falling from a high of $480+ to $405, the PE ratio is still about 111X. Even in a period of near record-high overall market va

by toss1 2y ago

Even after losing 16% in a month, falling from a high of $480+ to $405, the PE ratio is still about 111X. Even in a period of near record-high overall market valuations of 26X [1] not seen in at least decades, even before the Dotcom boom/bust, this is an outrageous valuation. Tesla would need to either fall to about $100/share or more than quadruple earnings just to get down to this historically aberrant high of PE~26X. Considering their now-established history of failure to deliver, the failure of the Cybertruck to catch on, and Musk's authoritarian behavior alienating most customers for his EVs, the prospects for a massive sustainable earnings increase are poor at best. Add onto that an economy that has been excellent for four years and will be difficult to sustain, especially with the new administration likely to undermine it with ill-advised scattershot tariffs and deportations, strong growth seems unlikely. I'd consider yourself very lucky if you had a position that you managed to sell in early December. I certainly wouldn't be buying any soon, but shorting meme stocks is dangerous (even if your thesis is correct, short-term motions can get you stopped out with a big loss before realizing profits). [0] https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/TSLA/ https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/TSLA/ [1] https://worldperatio.com/area/united-states/ https://worldperatio.com/area/united-states/

gnkyfrg 2y ago
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rusty_venture 2y ago
> short-term motions can get you stopped out with a big loss before realizing profits Can you elaborate on that a little? How does that happen?
- toss1 2y ago
  Not a finance guy, but mu understanding is that shorting can have unlimited losses — you are borrowing an amount of stock at Price $X and selling it at the market price, say 100 shares of TSLA at $400 this week. You are betting that the stock price will go down, and you'll be able to buy it back and repay the 100 shares of stock at perhaps $200/share, pocketing the difference. BUT, and this is a big BUT, if the price goes up in the meantime, your position goes negative, e.g., if it goes to $800, you are looking at a $40,000 loss. If it goes sufficiently negative that it approaches the point where the other assets at your broker cannot cover such a loss, you will be automatically sold out of your position at a loss. This means the broker will use the other assets in your account to automatically purchase TSLA shares and return them to the loaning party, all at market price. When there is a large short interest in a stock, this can happen simultaneously all over the market, driving the price to insane levels, as every short must cover their position. This is called a "Short Squeeze". Even if the shorts were right in the end, they all lost. This happened with Porsche a decade ago, driving it's price well over $1000, when it had been $80, and more recently with Gamestop. There are a LOT more better explanations than mine out there, or maybe some actual finance market guys/gals can weigh in. Here's one [0]. In any case, I hope this helps. [0] https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100913/basics-short-selling.asp https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100913/basic...
- positr0n 2y ago
  Margin call You short 10 shares at $400 and you have $4500 in your account. The stock is wildly swinging around and temporarily goes up to $440/share. Your position would cost $4400 and you only have $4500 in your account, so your broker says "oh no! If TSLA goes up a little more we might never get our money back from this customer" so they liquidate your position while they still can.

by toss1 2y ago

gnkyfrg 2y ago

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rusty_venture 2y ago

> short-term motions can get you stopped out with a big loss before realizing profits Can you elaborate on that a little? How does that happen?

toss1 2y ago
Not a finance guy, but mu understanding is that shorting can have unlimited losses — you are borrowing an amount of stock at Price $X and selling it at the market price, say 100 shares of TSLA at $400 this week. You are betting that the stock price will go down, and you'll be able to buy it back and repay the 100 shares of stock at perhaps $200/share, pocketing the difference. BUT, and this is a big BUT, if the price goes up in the meantime, your position goes negative, e.g., if it goes to $800, you are looking at a $40,000 loss. If it goes sufficiently negative that it approaches the point where the other assets at your broker cannot cover such a loss, you will be automatically sold out of your position at a loss. This means the broker will use the other assets in your account to automatically purchase TSLA shares and return them to the loaning party, all at market price. When there is a large short interest in a stock, this can happen simultaneously all over the market, driving the price to insane levels, as every short must cover their position. This is called a "Short Squeeze". Even if the shorts were right in the end, they all lost. This happened with Porsche a decade ago, driving it's price well over $1000, when it had been $80, and more recently with Gamestop. There are a LOT more better explanations than mine out there, or maybe some actual finance market guys/gals can weigh in. Here's one [0]. In any case, I hope this helps. [0] https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100913/basics-short-selling.asp https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100913/basic...
positr0n 2y ago
Margin call You short 10 shares at $400 and you have $4500 in your account. The stock is wildly swinging around and temporarily goes up to $440/share. Your position would cost $4400 and you only have $4500 in your account, so your broker says "oh no! If TSLA goes up a little more we might never get our money back from this customer" so they liquidate your position while they still can.