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NIMBYism making it extremely difficult and expensive to build supply as is needed. in 1946 the US had a population of 141M and built 700k housing units in 202

NIMBYism making it extremely difficult and expensive to build supply as is needed. in 1946 the US had a population of 141M and built 700k housing units in 2024 the US had a population of 336M and built 90k housing units

imperfect_light 2y ago
Where are these numbers from? How does 5 million housing units from 2020-2023 (this was published in 2024) translate into "90K housing units" >The United States has added almost 5 million housing units since 2020, most heavily in the South and most of them single-family homes, making a housing shortage look conquerable in much of the nation. https://washingtonstatestandard.com/2024/05/16/housing-boom-in-most-of-the-us-could-ease-shortage-but-cost-is-still-a-problem/#:~:text=The%20housing%20unit%20data%20released,for%20the%20past%20two%20years https://washingtonstatestandard.com/2024/05/16/housing-boom-....
- LeafItAlone 2y ago
  Parent used a single month’s count for the whole year
WalterBright 2y ago
1946 was a special case. It was the start of the baby boom, kicked off by the victorious soldiers returning home and wanting to get on with life.
MattGaiser 2y ago
Your 90K number is a monthly number, not annual and only for single family units. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST1F https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST1F
- iforgot22 2y ago
  It's also a delta being put alongside the absolute US population
giantg2 2y ago
"NIMBYism making it extremely difficult and expensive to build supply as is needed." Only in some areas. There are other factors affecting how expensive houses are across the country, such as materials/labor, preferences for larger/fancier houses, location preference, and increasingly complex/expensive code.
- MattGaiser 2y ago
  > preferences for larger/fancier houses And more space per person, so older houses now house far fewer than they used to. US has more bedrooms without an occupant than ever. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/09/realestate/empty-bedrooms-in-us-homes.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/09/realestate/empty-bedrooms...
  - LeafItAlone 2y ago
    I wonder how empty-nesting attributes to this. My parents have 3 empty (really, repurposed) bedrooms in their house now. But downsizing in their area wouldn’t actually help financially, so they don’t.
    - MattGaiser 2y ago
      In my case, most elderly relatives own their largest homes ever for when kids visit. So many bedrooms have never had a full time occupant.
    - giantg2 2y ago
      Empty-nesting has been a thing for about 2-3 generations. Before that there were often multi-generation homes. But it seems like people didn't really up-size 2-3 generations ago. Many of the great generation were happy to build their 1000sqft Sears house and live there the rest of their lives. The last 1-2 generations seems to be more of a drive for trading up to bigger and better everything. Now we see empty-nesters in 2500sqft houses. I think it's natural to not not want to leave a long-time home, even if it is oversized and only filled on holidays for company or parties. But why do we really need that much space in the first place, seems to be more of the question.
LeafItAlone 2y ago
> in 2024 the US had a population of 336M and built 90k housing units That was one month’s worth. There were ~1.5 million built in 2024 in the US. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf
glaucon 2y ago
> in 1946 the US had a population of 141M and built 700k housing units I think the year after the second world war ended at which point marriages, and therefore household formation, went to unprecedented levels introduces a lot of noise into that signal

imperfect_light 2y ago

Where are these numbers from? How does 5 million housing units from 2020-2023 (this was published in 2024) translate into "90K housing units" >The United States has added almost 5 million housing units since 2020, most heavily in the South and most of them single-family homes, making a housing shortage look conquerable in much of the nation. https://washingtonstatestandard.com/2024/05/16/housing-boom-in-most-of-the-us-could-ease-shortage-but-cost-is-still-a-problem/#:~:text=The%20housing%20unit%20data%20released,for%20the%20past%20two%20years https://washingtonstatestandard.com/2024/05/16/housing-boom-....

LeafItAlone 2y ago
Parent used a single month’s count for the whole year

WalterBright 2y ago

1946 was a special case. It was the start of the baby boom, kicked off by the victorious soldiers returning home and wanting to get on with life.

MattGaiser 2y ago

Your 90K number is a monthly number, not annual and only for single family units. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST1F https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST1F

iforgot22 2y ago
It's also a delta being put alongside the absolute US population

giantg2 2y ago

"NIMBYism making it extremely difficult and expensive to build supply as is needed." Only in some areas. There are other factors affecting how expensive houses are across the country, such as materials/labor, preferences for larger/fancier houses, location preference, and increasingly complex/expensive code.

MattGaiser 2y ago
> preferences for larger/fancier houses And more space per person, so older houses now house far fewer than they used to. US has more bedrooms without an occupant than ever. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/09/realestate/empty-bedrooms-in-us-homes.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/09/realestate/empty-bedrooms...
- LeafItAlone 2y ago
  I wonder how empty-nesting attributes to this. My parents have 3 empty (really, repurposed) bedrooms in their house now. But downsizing in their area wouldn’t actually help financially, so they don’t.
  - MattGaiser 2y ago
    In my case, most elderly relatives own their largest homes ever for when kids visit. So many bedrooms have never had a full time occupant.
  - giantg2 2y ago
    Empty-nesting has been a thing for about 2-3 generations. Before that there were often multi-generation homes. But it seems like people didn't really up-size 2-3 generations ago. Many of the great generation were happy to build their 1000sqft Sears house and live there the rest of their lives. The last 1-2 generations seems to be more of a drive for trading up to bigger and better everything. Now we see empty-nesters in 2500sqft houses. I think it's natural to not not want to leave a long-time home, even if it is oversized and only filled on holidays for company or parties. But why do we really need that much space in the first place, seems to be more of the question.

LeafItAlone 2y ago

> in 2024 the US had a population of 336M and built 90k housing units That was one month’s worth. There were ~1.5 million built in 2024 in the US. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

glaucon 2y ago

> in 1946 the US had a population of 141M and built 700k housing units I think the year after the second world war ended at which point marriages, and therefore household formation, went to unprecedented levels introduces a lot of noise into that signal